Matt Triemstra, VP federal affairs at Restaurants Canada, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss McDonald’s and the ‘K-shaped’ economy.

Falling fast-food prices are emerging as a signal of growing affordability pressure, as Canadians cut back on dining out amid stagnant wages and rising costs. Industry data suggest consumer behaviour is shifting toward cheaper, more predictable options.

BNN Bloomberg spoke with Matt Triemstra, vice-president of federal affairs at Restaurants Canada, about what recent price cuts reveal about the economy, restaurant profitability and the challenges facing foodservice operators in 2026.

Key TakeawaysFalling value-meal prices reflect growing affordability pressures tied to stagnant wages and high food inflation.A majority of Canadians plan to dine out less, forcing restaurants to focus on price certainty and everyday value.Many restaurants are absorbing higher costs rather than raising prices, squeezing already-thin margins.Nearly half of Canadian restaurants are operating at break-even or at a loss, signalling industry-wide stress.Lower-income households are disproportionately cutting back on restaurant spending, affecting all segments of the market.Matt Triemstra, VP federal affairs at Restaurants Canada Matt Triemstra, VP federal affairs at Restaurants Canada

Read the full transcript below:

ROGER: The Canadian economy is under pressure, with lower-income households struggling with stagnant wages and rising costs. But it is starting to look more like a McDeconomy, as McDonald’s Canada lowers its McValue meal prices to $5 from $5.99. The change reflects growing concerns about food affordability.Joining us to discuss that is Matt Triemstra, vice-president of federal affairs at Restaurants Canada. Matt, thanks for being here.

MATT: It’s great to be here. Thanks for having me.

ROGER: When you see this move, what does it say about the economy more broadly, when a restaurant is cutting prices that were already low?

MATT: We’ve done our own polling, and 75 per cent of Canadians say they plan to dine out less because of the cost of living. That’s a huge number. Restaurants want to get people back through the doors. When you combine that with food costs rising 11 per cent over the past two years, dining out is becoming increasingly unaffordable for many Canadians.

ROGER: In that survey, did people say what is hitting them the hardest?

MATT: It’s really a perfect storm. You’ve got food inflation, rising labour costs and Canadians being more reluctant to go out to restaurants. All of those factors are coming together and putting pressure on the industry as we head into 2026.

ROGER: Sticking with McDonald’s, that $1 price drop also comes with keeping small coffee at $1 and adding items to those value meals. Is that enough to bring customers back? It’s roughly an 18 per cent savings.

MATT: I think it helps. For my family of five, it costs about $80 to go to McDonald’s now. It doesn’t feel like the cheap option it once was. In previous downturns, people might skip the steakhouse and go to quick-service restaurants instead. Now, even quick service feels expensive, and families are choosing between that and making a meal at home. Anything that lowers costs and brings Canadians back, we see as a positive.

ROGER: Are you seeing other fast-food chains making similar moves?

MATT: I haven’t seen specific examples, but we hear regularly about restaurants having to cut costs. Often, if a menu item becomes more expensive, restaurants absorb those costs rather than passing them on. Changing prices also means reprinting menus, which adds costs. As a result, some restaurants are absorbing inflation or cutting back on menu items altogether.

ROGER: With prices like this, is there still profit for companies like McDonald’s?

MATT: You’d have to ask McDonald’s about their profitability. What I can say is that restaurants across the board are struggling and looking for ways to bring customers back. Any effort to lower prices is good for the average Canadian consumer.

ROGER: Let’s step back and look at the bigger picture. What is it like for restaurants in Canada right now?

MATT: About 41 per cent of restaurants tell us they are operating at break-even or at a loss. That’s staggering. Just three years ago, that figure was closer to 12 per cent. When you add in factors like labour shortages and changes to immigration, it paints a very difficult picture for the industry.

ROGER: McDonald’s has the scale to do this. What about smaller restaurants? How are they coping?

MATT: They are surviving, but it’s tough. Another report earlier this week forecast as many as 4,000 restaurant closures across the country, and our data aligns with that. Early in 2025, restaurants were in a better position. There was a GST holiday, Canadians were travelling domestically and restaurant sales were stronger. As we move into 2026, that has shifted, and conditions are much harder.

ROGER: Looking at the so-called K-economy, are higher-end restaurants holding up better?

MATT: Everyone is facing challenges. Some consumers may move from luxury dining to mid-range, or from mid-range to quick service. But inflation hits lower-income Canadians harder. Our data shows about 27 per cent of people earning under $25,000 did not go to restaurants in December, compared with just 10 per cent of those earning more than $100,000. So the impact is being felt across the industry.

ROGER: It may sound trivial, but there’s something psychological about being able to go out for a meal.

MATT: Absolutely. Restaurants are where we celebrate and spend time with friends. They’re part of our social fabric. Beyond fine dining, they’re also about convenience in a fast-paced world — parents grabbing a value meal between activities or ordering pizza after a long workday. That accessibility is important, and we want to see the entire industry succeed.

ROGER: Looking longer term, what worries you most? Do you see light at the end of the tunnel?

MATT: We’re hopeful that by 2027 things will stabilize and closures will slow. Labour remains a major concern. We employ nearly 1.2 million Canadians and are the fourth-largest private-sector employer. About 41 per cent of our workforce is youth. Restaurants are often where people get their first job, and that role is critical as we look ahead.

ROGER: With limits on temporary foreign workers, have you seen more youth filling those roles?

MATT: Youth make up about 41 per cent of our workforce, and that’s been consistent for years. The idea that temporary foreign workers are taking jobs from youth isn’t supported by our data. Restaurants want to hire young people, and we want to continue offering those opportunities.

ROGER: Matt, we’ll have to leave it there. Thanks for joining us.

MATT: Thank you. I appreciate it.

ROGER: Matt Triemstra, vice-president of federal affairs at Restaurants Canada.

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This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the Jan. 13, 2026 interview with Matt Triemstra are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.