The Canadian and American economies are woven together tightly. So when Donald Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Canadian imports last year, many economists—myself included saw a disaster looming. …The most exposed sectors were those most dependent on US demand: steel, aluminum, autos, energy and lumber. …In our worst-case scenario, we expected it would shrink Canada’s GDP by 2.6 per cent, leading to a moderate recession and shaving nearly $2,000 a year off income for every Canadian. So far, however, that doomsday scenario hasn’t materialized. This was possible because of the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement. …Avoiding the worst of the tariffs doesn’t mean we’ve won or even survived the trade war. Communities across the country are still hurting. …Regions in Quebec and British Columbia are under strain, with key industrial sectors—steel, aluminum, copper, lumber—are facing additional tariffs under Section 232 authority.
