Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman warns there is downside risk to Canadian engineering and construction shares in the near term “or at best range-bound” with the operating environment “little changed” south of the border with “projects still moving ahead but at a slower pace due to uncertainty.”

“While demand remains strong, and we expect 2026 to be directionally better than 2025, that suggests growth will only re-accelerate in 2Q when the group laps easy comps,” he said. “This is how we see things playing out in 4Q: 1) results will be in-line (or potentially beat on margins); 2) investors will still get sticker shock when they see low-single-digits comps in the U.S. (despite it being implied by guidance); 3) 2026 guides will be solid calling for organic growth in the mid-single-digits to high-single-digits range; 4) investors won’t buy it until they see tangible proof of a re-acceleration, which is a 2Q26 event.”

In a client report released before the bell titled Seeing Is Believing, Mr. Goldman sees “a silver lining” in the reduction in valuations, which “have come off 2 times from the peak last summer primarily on U.S. growth concerns and AI disruption.”

“We think those fears are overdone as discussed in our recent industry piece, The E&Cs Are AI-ght, providing a much more attractive entry point,“ he said..” M&A is alive well with STN and ATRL likely up next. WSP is our top pick in 1H given upside to TRC, lowest risk to 3-year targets, best-in-class organic growth algorithm, perennial M&A optionality, and valuation with shares trading in-line with STN vs. historical premium of 0.5 times. ATRL is our top pick in 2H given significant nuclear catalysts.”

The analyst reaffirmed WSP Global Inc. (WSP-T) as his top pick for the year ahead, raising his target for its shares to $320 from $318 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $334.82, according to LSEG data.

“Shares are up 11 per cent since the acquisition of TRC, but we expect them to grind higher as investors come to appreciate how significant the deal is: it immediately catapults WSP into the best organic profile of the E&C cohort with 20 per cent of the consolidated platform (40 per cent of U.S.) now growing in the mid-teens,” said Mr. Goldman. “That alone supports 300 basis points organic growth annually. On the 3Q25 earnings call, management said it sees no reason why POWER cannot continue growing in the mid-teens in 2026. More immediate catalysts are upside earnings surprises (TRC contribution, margin expansion, APAC recovery, Canada nation-building/defence), re-acceleration of U.S. organic growth (in 2H26), and more M&A. We don’t think M&A is ever on pause at WSP. To wit, following POWER Engineers (closed October 2024), the company went to acquire Lexica (June 2025), Ricardo (closed October 2025), and of course TRC (announced December 2025). Deleveraging could happen sooner than expected given consistently improving margin/DSO/FCF performance and potential divestiture of Ricardo’s Automotive and Industrial and Performance Products businesses.”

Mr. Goldman also raised his target for Stantec Inc. (STN-T) by $1 to $162 (versus the $171 average) with a “sector outperform” rating, noting it needs “M&A to backfill 2026 targets, but it’s not a stretch.”

“The company has tough comps in the U.S. in 4Q, but unlike WSP it doesn’t have the benefit of POWER Engineers to boost growth,” he said. “We see upside to margins as consensus has them down year-over-year despite tracking up 100 basis points year-to-date. Last year, management didn’t call out any significant one-timers. For 2026, we forecast revenue of $7.1-billion, which implies Stantec needs to add $400-million from M&A to meet 2024-2026 targets. That’s not a stretch given the company has been pacing in that range in 2024 (Morrison Hershfield, Hydrock) and 2025 (Page, Cosgroves, Ryan Hanley). The B/S is also in really good shape with leverage at 1.5 times as at 3Q25, at the midpoint of comfort zone of 1 times to 2 times. There is likely upside to 2026 margin targets as well given the company already hit the midpoint of the range (17.5 per cent) in 3Q25, a year ahead of schedule.”

While he thinks AtkinsRéalis Group Inc.’s (ATRL-T) nuclear business “should see another inflection point in 2H,” he trimmed his target to $112 from $113 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $119.15.

“Nuclear backlog could almost double later in 2026 on potential signing of Qinshan life extension and Cernavoda 3 and 4 Phase 2 new build,” he said. “The other catalyst is potential announcement of CANDU as preferred vendor by Government of Ontario. Our near-term concern is on the Engineering Services business: despite lapping much easier comps in 2026, slower end-market activity in the U.S. (afflicting all E&Cs) and the Middle East (as the company looks to backfill recently completed projects in KSA) could require adjustment to 2025-2027 organic growth targets for more than 8-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate]. The company has the best B/S of the group as a result of strong net cash (ex leases) following the sale of the H407. Recall, management is looking to deploy $1-1.5 billion on bolt-on M&A by the end of 2026. The company announced two deals late last year – C2AE (120-person firm in the U.S.) and ADG Engineers (250-person firm in Australia) – adding to David Evans earlier in 2025.”

Pointing to an “attractive” valuation amid surging gold prices, TD Cowen analyst Steven Green upgraded SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM-T) to “buy” from “hold” previously.

“SSRM trades at a discount to peers despite improved FCF performance, and offers good torque to the surging gold price,” he said. “Also, while we still do not have any clarity on timing for a Copler restart, we are likely getting closer to this positive potential catalyst.

“Compelling Valuation: SSRM is currently trading at 0.75 times NAV and 2.7 times 2027 estimated EV/EBITDA, compared with its peer group at 1.15 times and 6.0 times, respectively, representing a 35-per-cent discount on P/NAV valuation. We believe SSRM should trade closer to peer averages given improved production stability and strong cash-flow generation following the CC&V transaction, with 2026 representing the first full year of production from the asset.”

In justifying his bullish stance, Mr. Green highlighted the expectation for continued increases in productions, projecting growth of 30 per cent in 2026 and another 8 per cent 8 in 2027.

“This is primarily being driven by Marigold, where higher stacking rates and grades are expected over this period,” he said. “Copler catalyst remains a wild card. With Copler now approaching two years on care and maintenance, and the cleanup well advanced, we could be getting closer to more clarity on a potential restart, which would be a positive catalyst, in our view.

” Hod Maden continues to advance engineering and early-site works, with a construction decision expected in the coming months. This is a high-grade, high-quality, development project, in our view.“

Seeing its late 2024 acquisition of the Cripple Creek & Victor Gold Mine in Colorado from Newmont Corp. strengthening its “production profile and cash-flow durability” and its “balance sheet and liquidity remain solid,” Mr. Green raised his target for SSRM shares to $43 from $33. The average is $35.37.

Precious metals equity analysts at TD Cowen expect “strong” fourth-quarter 2025 result for producers, “driven by record prices and seasonal strength in production.”

“As producers remain disciplined, we expect record FCF and increasing capital returns,” said We remain positive on the sector given the highly supportive macro backdrop, with rising geopolitical tensions, Fed easing, and ongoing central bank and investor buying.”

“We remain positive on the sector given the highly supportive macro backdrop, with rising geopolitical tensions, Fed easing, and ongoing central bank and investor buying.”

In a report released before the bell, analysts Steven Green, Wayne Lam and Derick Ma said they expect the sector to benefit from an “exceptional” 2025 for gold prices with momentum continuing thus far this year. They emphasized the gains brought by both geopolitical uncertainty and safe haven buying.

“Looking ahead, we see a bullish backdrop, underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty, declining interest rates, ongoing central bank buying, increasing investment demand, and new buyers such as Tether,” they said. “We forecast an average gold price of $4,650/oz in 2026 and have slightly increased out long-term price to $3,600/oz in 2030 (from $3,500/oz).

“Margins and FCF expansion expected despite some cost pressures: Q4 is expected to be the strongest quarter of the year, supported by record-high gold prices and typical seasonal strength in production. While higher gold and equity prices have driven some variable cost increases (i.e., royalties), we expect the impact will be dwarfed by the higher gold price, and continued producer discipline. We forecast AISC [all-in sustaining cost] margins expanding 30 per cent quarter-over-quarter to $2,431/oz, with sector FCF reaching a multi-year high of $7.8-billion.”

Touting a “supportive backdrop” for both capital returns and M&A, driven by rising free cash flow, “strong” balance sheets and “growing” war chests, the analysts raised their forecasts for companies in their coverage universe to reflect the firm’s revised metals deck. That led to target price increases for stocks.

The analysts’ top picks moving forward are:

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-N/AEM-T, “buy”) to US$241 from US$195. The average is US$192.94.Barrick Mining Corp. (B-N, ABX-T, “buy”) to US$61 from US$46. Average: US$48.24.Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE-T, “buy”) to US$31 from US$25. Average: US$22.36.Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T, “buy”) to $26 from $21. Average: $16.01.Iamgold Corp. (IMG-T, “buy”) to $34 from $24. Average: $25.47.K92 Mining Inc. (KNT-T, “buy”) to $33 from $23. Average: $28.43.Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD-Q, “buy”) to US$356 from US$263. Average: US$268.

TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison lowered Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) to a “hold” recommendation from “buy” on Thursday, seeing “a greater likelihood of the shares remaining relatively range-bound through 2026 as the merger [with Anglo American PLC] approaches completion and QB operations continue development toward steady state.”

“Although we appreciate the long-term Teck growth story, we see greater short-term opportunities in our coverage universe for those looking to gain exposure to copper,” he added.

In a client note, Mr. Hutchison predicted 2026 will be a “transition year” for the Vancouver-based company.

“First, the merger is expected to close as early as September 2026. Second, developments to the QB tailings management facility continue to take place, with steady state operations expected in 2027,” he explained. “As the year progresses, and given the price performance following its recent Q4/25 production print, we believe Teck shares will remain relatively range-bound until new catalysts are defined.

“Anglo-Teck merger making headway. The Anglo-Teck merger has cleared ICA/Canada approvals and appears to be on track to close within the estimated 12-18-month window, pending regulatory approvals from other countries such as China. Given the approval and Teck’s guidance reset in late 2025 (link), we see limited upside for the stock in the near term, as the shares will likely be tethered to the Anglo share price until deal close.”

Following adjustments to the company’s commodity price deck, Mr. Hutchison raised his target for Teck shares to $76 from $70. The average is $69.48.

Elsewhere, in response to its fourth-quarter production results, Canaccord Genuity’s Dalton Baretto raised his Teck target to $72.50 from $72 with a “hold” rating.

In a separate note, Mr. Hutchison hiked his target for Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T) to $43 from $17 with a “buy” rating following the close of the sale of a 30-per-cent interest in the Copper World copper mine project to Mitsubishi Corp. The average is $30.17.

“During the period of restriction, Cu and Au prices have increased materially, which we have captured in our revised estimates and target price increase. We believe Hudbay is very well-positioned in the current metal price environment to grow Cu production to over 200ktpa (up 80 per cent) by decade-end,” he said.

National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse is expecting a large in-line earnings season for Canadian technology companies with few surprises as the sector continues to be “shaped by cross-border trends.”

“Continuing from 2025 and as highlighted in our Year Ahead report, AI and semiconductors have continued their relative market leadership followed by a resurgence in memory plays, while broad software has lagged under continuing questions around the potential disruption from AI,” he said. “Notably, in recent weeks, Anthropic unveiled enterprise capability upgrades to Claude that have weighed on sentiment across software, particularly those companies positioned around knowledge work, customer support and workflow automation. Investor concern has been less on the near-term impact but more on potential longer-term implications of pricing power and product differentiation, as Claude’s relative performance potential and integrations add fuel to the perception that foundational AI capabilities are becoming more commoditized, thereby adding to the downstream concerns for software.

“This has pressured valuations across software, especially for vendors whose AI roadmaps are perceived as only incremental and/or overly dependent on third-party models, which raises questions on gross margin sustainability, and their ability to maintain their long-term competitive differentiation. For many Canadian software names, the read-through has been amplified given their typically smaller scale, raising the bar this earnings season for management teams to clearly articulate why their AI offerings remain defensible and how they translate into durable monetization rather than feature parity.”

In a client report, Mr. Tse said he expects valuation to be “rewarded” for AI-resilient businesses as well as those “entering a strategic and/or operating inflection” and smaller names with meaningful market opportunity that are executing on a strategy.

“In Canada, with respect to AI, attention last year was concentrated into select names like Celestica and Shopify where investors saw a direct benefit,” he said.

“With respect to our stock selections based on the above, we continue to believe outperformance over the next 12 months will come from a narrow group of names that include: CGI, Kinaxis, OpenText, Shopify, Vitalhub and Zedcor.”

Mr. Tse made three target adjustments to stocks in his coverage universe:

* Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T, “sector perform”) to $3,200 (a Street low) from $4,500. The average target is $4,944.67.

“The revised target price reflects our moderated assumptions for growth given a lower-than-expected rate of capital deployment along with a slight increase in discount rate to reflect the current market backdrop,” he said.

* Docebo Inc. (DCBO-Q/DCBO-T, “sector perform” to US$24 (a Street low) from US$31. Average: US$35.20.

“We think there’s a balanced risk-to-reward still – we’re revising our price target to reflect the moderating growth assumptions in our DCF,” he said.

* Tecsys Inc. (TCS-T, “sector perform) to $29 from $28. Average: $48.

” Bottom line, the macro backdrop for Tecsys’ market remains challenging, as noted above, leaving the risk-to-reward dynamic fairly balanced on the name. We maintain our Sector Perform rating with a revised price target … based on our revised multi-stage DCF that reflects moderating growth assumptions,” he said.

Mr. Tse also singled out VitalHub Corp. (VHI-T, “outperform” and $16 target) as being a “potential upside surprise” during earnings season.

“We believe the company has been conservative with its margin outlook given its record of surfacing synergies post acquisitions,” he said. “We see upside potential to EBITDA in either the following results and/or forward-looking outlook.”

Conversely, he sees “potential downside risk” for Real Matters Inc. (REAL-T, “sector perform” and $7 target).

“While mortgage rates have come down, we believe there’s risk that the benefit to Real Matters is less than previous years as market volumes have shifted away from Real Matters’ customer base,” he said. “We believe it will take time for volumes to shift back to Real Matters customers.”

TD Cowen analyst Sean Steuart thinks sentiment surrounding forestry and packaging companies, particularly wood product equities, has “started on a positive footing” in early 2026 with investors reacting to “encouraging U.S. home sales data, upward lumber/OSB price momentum, and potential U.S. housing policy support.”

“We believe that inevitable wood product supply closures will precede an eventual demand recovery,” he added. “Relative balance-sheet strength matters.”

In a client report, Mr. Steuart updated his outlook for the industry through 2027, leading to higher target prices for 10 of the 12 stocks in his coverage universe.

“Expected 2026 sector themes: 1) Supply response leads demand recovery for lumber, OSB, and softwood pulp. 2) No downside for lumber/OSB/pulp prices (lumber and OSB composite prices have rallied 14 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively, since early December 2025). 3) Balance-sheet preservation remains a priority (aggregate 2026 capex forecast 10 per cent below expected 2025 levels). 4) No expected U.S./Canada softwood lumber trade dispute progress towards a deal,” he said.

“Commodity deck changes. Several adjustments to 2026 forecasts: 1) Lower average OSB prices (down 13-19 per cent across key regions) to account for the severity of price correction in late-2025 and modest housing growth expectations. 2) Small reductions to our average lumber price forecast (lowered 6-9 per cent across key regions). Our new 2027 commodity price estimates are 2-4 per cent higher than 2026 forecasts for key grades. Cumulative expected year-over-year EBITDA growth for our coverage set: 32 per cent in 2026 (from a low base) and 28 per cent in 2027.”

With his adjustments, Mr. Steuart shuffled his pecking order, naming West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG-N, WFG-T) and CCL Industries Inc. (CCL.B-T) as his “top picks” moving forward. His new targets for those stocks are:

* West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. with a US$93 target, up from US$88. The average on the Street is US$79.36.

Analyst: “Compelling valuation ahead of a cyclical earnings recovery. Trailing P/BV multiple of 0.8 times compares with the long-term average of 1.3 times and is near its lowest level since the end of the GFC. Trend (mid-cycle) TEV/EBITDA multiple of 4.2 times is below the company’s long-term average trend multiple of 5.4 times. We argue for a wider premium based on WFG’s defensive attributes, scale, growth platform, and ROCE history. … Flexible capital position near the cyclical trough supports strategic options. Abundant available liquidity (net cash of US$3.14/share and available liquidity more than U$1.6-billion) enables discretionary reinvestment, returns to shareholders (share buybacks and regular dividend), and opportunistic M&A. Consistent discretionary capex through the cycle underpins WFG’s status as a best-in-class operator and cost leader.”

* CCL Industries Inc. with a $105 target, up from $100. Average: $95.

Analyst: “Our positive bias is supported by what we view as an attractive valuation. The company’s established business model, growth verticals, long-term track record of consistent EPS/FCF growth, and strong ROCE (long-term average of 14.6 per cent vs. the peer-group average of 12.9 per cent) are unique in our coverage. … CCL exited Q3/25 with capital structure flexibility which provides options for returns to shareholders and asset base growth. Trailing net debt/EBITDA was 0.9 times and available liquidity was $2.3-billion. Without building in prospective M&A and/or share repurchases, we forecast that CCL will exit 2026 with a net debt/EBITDA of 0.4 times.”

Mr. Steuart’s other target changes for TSX-listed stocks are:

Cascades Inc. (CAS-T, “buy”) to $16 from $14. Average: $13.80.Canfor Corp. (CFP-T, “buy”) to $16 from $15. Average: $15.Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (DBM-T, “buy”) to $12 from $11. Average: $11.Interfor Corp. (IFP-T, “hold”) to $11 from $9. Average: $12.KP Tissue Inc. (KPT-T, “hold”) to $11 from $10. Average: $11.Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T, “hold”) to $14 from $13. Average: $13.

National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar expects Saputo Inc. (SAP-T) to display “strong” earnings per share momentum when it reports its third-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on Feb. 5, driven largely by a recovery in its international markets from the same point a year ago.

He’s currently projecting adjusted earnings per share of 53 cents, a penny below the consensus forecast but 14 cents higher than the result from the same period a year ago. He attributes that 34-per-cent year-over-year gain to “reflecting EBITDA growth (volume and margins), share buybacks, lower interest expense, and slightly lower D&A, partly offset by a slightly higher tax rate.”

“In USA, we expect EBITDA margin to expand by approximately 70 basis points year-over-year, largely reflecting better efficiency, and operating leverage partly offset by a negative milk-cheese spread (albeit the new USDA milk-pricing formula is expected to remain favourable), and higher marketing/promotion activity (in key focus brands), among other factors,” he said. “We expect Canada to continue benefiting from strong commercial execution, manufacturing efficiencies from capital investment, and SG&A savings, among other factors. We forecast EBITDA margin expansion of 40 basis points year-over-year.

“In International, we expect stable sales volumes (reduced exports in Australia offset by Argentina growth). EBITDA is expected to benefit from a favourable product mix, continued positive impact from hyperinflation on a year-over-year basis, as well as better milk availability in Argentina (more than offsetting a decline in international dairy ingredient market prices). In Europe, we expect an unfavourable product mix, higher advertising and promotional activity, a more favourable relation between selling prices and input costs, and favourable FX.”

While he acknowledges “heightened uncertainty” given a “volatile” commodity backdrop, Mr. Shreedhar is expecting improvements through the remainder of the Montreal-based company’s year. He’s now modelling fiscal 2026 EBITDA growth of 14 per cent year-over-year, pointing to “efficiency initiatives, moderation in duplicate costs, modest recovery in Argentina and modest growth, in addition to other factors.”

Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Saputo shares, Mr. Shreedhar raised his target to $45 from $38. The average on the Street is $42.50.

“We believe that Saputo will benefit from a variety of initiatives/factors that will benefit profitability more fulsomely in F2026+, including efficiency initiatives, improved commodities backdrop, lower capex/costs, in addition to attractive valuation with 5-per-cent FCF yield in F2026,” he said. “Additionally, we are constructive on share buybacks, and a focus on organic growth vs. M&A, for now.”

In other analyst actions:

* Pointing to a operating income growth concerns, BMO’s Tom Mackinnon downgraded Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T) to “neutral” from “outperform” and cut his target to $2,500 from $2,600. The average is $2,910.47.

* Ahead of the Jan. 27 release of its fourth-quarter results, Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho raised his AGF Management Ltd. (AGF.B-T) target to $18.50 from $17.75 with a “buy” rating. The average is $18.

“Industry flows have seen continued strength exiting 2025 on the back of positive market sentiment. Ongoing robust industry M&A activity (eg CI’s purchase of Invesco’s Canadian assets with $26-billion in AUM) reinforces AGF’s scarcity value proposition—takeout value worth $30+/share, in our view. We raised our estimates given higher AUM, our target price increases,” he said.

* Following the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 production results and 2026 guidance, Canaccord Genuity’s Carey MacRury increased his target for shares of Aris Mining Corp. (ARIS-T) to a high on the Street of $30 from $28 with a “buy” rating. The average target is $22.25.

“With Segovia ramping up and Marmato progressing, we still see Aris achieving an 500koz/year run rate in 2027E with a longer-term path to 1Moz per year with Toroparu and Soto Norte. Despite this growth trajectory, the company is generating FCF at current gold prices and strengthening its balance sheet. With 2026 guidance released and Marmato on track for late 2026, we have lifted our target,” he said.

* In response to last week’s release of an updated Feasibility Study for the South Railroad Project in Nevada alongside its fourth-quarter 2025 production results and 2026 guidance, National Bank’s Alex Terentiew raised his Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA-T) target to $29 from $27, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average target is $26.

“While the updated P&P reserves came in slightly below the prior estimates, Orla significantly increased both M&I and Inferred resources (up 38 per cent and up 41 per cent), with most drilling completed in 2025, including the encouraging results released late last year, excluded, providing upside to future estimates,“ said Mr. Terentiew. ”We are confident the planned 10-year mine life will not only be extended, but the decline in grades starting Year 6 will be deferred as new higher grade tonnes are added to the mine plan.

“Longer term, a sulphide operation has potential to add substantial value, with drilling to date focused only on the oxides. We currently ascribe no value to the sulphides, but note the underlying resource potential holds significant long-term option value, in our view.”

* With the release of a shareholder letter confirming its strategic priorities to complete the sale of its U.S. assets, complete a WELLSTAR initial public offering and advancement towards its goal over the next 8-10 years to grow its share of Canadian healthcare delivery from approximately 1.5 per cent to 10 per cent, Ventum Capital Markets’ Rob Goff cut his target for Well Health Technologies Corp. (WELL-T) to $7.20 with a “buy” rating, awaiting prospective divestitures south of the border. The average is $7.42.