Friday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

Ahead of fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season for Canadian grocers, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Irene Nattel maintained her “stronger for longer” view on the sector, pointing to the macroeconomic backdrop and long-term trends.

“We reiterate our expectation that secular winners continue trading at the highend of long-term ranges as investors continue to pay a premium for sustainable, defensive, ratable growth,” she said in a client report released before the bell.

“Loblaw is earning its place in that group, with a disciplined operating model and commitment to its financial framework, notably bookended by sustainable top-line growth and return of capital to shareholders. With a balanced approach to long-term expansion opportunities across Hard Discount, Pharmacy, and T&T, augmented by ancillary opportunities in high-margin supplementary income streams, Loblaw is exceptionally well-positioned to leverage its scale and reach, and amplify its competitive edge in omnichannel retail and loyalty. Reiterating Outperform rating, L as our top pick for 2026.”

Ms. Nattel emphasized “food CPI backdrop continues to favour grocers with strong value proposition and likely to keep shaping consumer shopping patterns.”

“While December food from stores CPI increase of 5.0 per cent is distorted by the temporary GST/HST exemption on certain items introduced December 14, 2024, underlying grocery prices remain on an upward trajectory, with inflation on basic groceries not subject to the exemption driving the index higher,” he said. “CQ4 up 4.4 per cent, up 80 basis points sequentially and highest since Q4/23.

“Overall, we expect inflationary backdrop to persist, further underpinned by changes in regional sourcing to satisfy growing consumer demand for U.S. alternatives, and in the near-term, by the seasonal shift favouring produce imports. Near-term CAD strength year-over-year should provide some FX relief but impact of rising proportion of produce sourced outside the U.S. remains a notable caveat. RBC Economics FX forecasts are currently under review.”

Ahead of its quarterly release on Feb. 25, Ms. Nattel raised her target for Loblaw Companies Ltd. (L-T) shares to $72 from $68, reiterating an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $66.14, according to LSEG data.

“In our view Loblaw is best positioned against current consumer backdrop of greater value-seeking consumer behaviour, with solid underlying momentum augmented by 2-per-cent unit growth in food and drug,” he said.

The analyst’s other target adjustments are:

* Empire Co. Ltd. (EMP.A-T, “sector perform”) to $55 from $61. Average: $53.40.

Analyst: “Notwithstanding progress, we maintain our view that Empire remains structurally disadvantaged against the backdrop of current consumer spending patterns, re-accelerating food inflation, and uncertainty with respect to the employment and macro backdrop.”

* George Weston Ltd. (WN-T, “outperform”) to $115 from $109. Average: $106.17.

Analyst: “Minor forecast adjustments reflect Loblaw tweaks. Reiterating OP rating, PT to $115 on Loblaw increase. Current discount to NAV estimated at 17 per cent, wider than LT average 15 per cent.”

* Metro Inc. (MRU-T, “sector perform”) to $113 from $112. Average: $115.

Analyst: “Forecasts incorporate modest impact to sales and margins, with contingency plans in place to minimize out-of-stock on certain items affected by the frozen DC [distribution centre] disruption. MRU estimates FQ1 non-recurring impact of net earnings $15-20 -million, excluding any insurance recoveries. MT [medium-term] forecast EPS CAGR 8 per cent within financial framework 8-10-per-cent EPS unchanged. Reiterating SP rating on relative valuation.”

National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev sees Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. (BDGI-T) as a “much improved” company with a constructive backdrop, however he feels that “positive dynamic” is already reflected in valuation and feels investors “need a better entry point.”

Accordingly, he assumed coverage of the Calgary-based provider of provider of non-destructive excavating with a “sector perform” rating in a client report released Friday.

“Badger is a compounder, especially when one stays with the story throughout the cycle,” said Mr. Sytchev. “The company’s long held belief that building its own equipment is a competitive advantage appears to have borne fruit, resulting in healthy progression of revenue per truck (RPT) metrics – a 3.5-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] from 2021 to 2027, an acceleration vs. the 1.3-per-cent rate over the prior non overlapping period (a function of a more diversified asset base and lesser oil & gas reliance).

“On a more neutral side of the ledger, one needs justification about how to buy into a stock chart that builds on the back of a 104-per-cent return last year while 2026 EPS projections have stayed flat, implying the heavy lift is being done by multiple expansion. We view the current risk/reward profile on BDGI shares as balanced.”

The analyst set a $82 target for Badger shares. The average target on the Street is $81.01.

Mr. Sytchev also assumed coverage of two other industrial companies. They are:

* GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL-T) with an “outperform” rating and $78 target. The average is $74.93.

Analyst: “GFL – shares are oversold, time to step in, again; The LTM [last 12-month] performance of GFL shares vs. the TSX is rather unusual, up 3 per cent vs. up 30 per cent, respectively; this is the biggest negative rolling delta since Spring 2022 when concerns around the ability to pass on cost inflation (labour and materials) and higher interest rates post an active M&A program exacerbated investor sentiment. With normalized leverage, an active tuck-in slate which has historically been well received by the market, an expected 75 basis points contribution to the 2026E topline from the continued EPR rollout, ancillary surcharges, a greater push towards fixed charge increases vs. CPI, and operational efficiencies should lead to double-digit EBITDA growth in 2026E. For a defensive name that lagged the market to such a material degree, we view the operational set-up combined with reasonable valuation as very attractive.”

* Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES-T) with a “sector perform” rating and $19 target. The average is $20.92.

Analyst: “SES – material mispricing opportunity is likely behind us, more balanced risk/reward here; The market has witnessed a tremendous business turnaround post the 2021 merger with Tervita, with shares responding aggressively as a result. Looking forward, there is positive operational visibility around 2 pipeline‑connected water disposal projects and Phase 3 expansion of the company’s Clearwater heavy oil terminal and associated gathering infrastructure. That being said, rig count is still relatively sluggish and while we see the merits of scrap metal optimization around rail car capacity, organic volumes in the metals market remain subdued. We are biding our time for a slightly better risk / reward skew before stepping into the name as commodity sentiment remains fluid at the moment.”

As its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release late next month approaches, National Bank Financial’s Cameron Doerksen sees few near-term catalysts to drive shares of Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T) higher, however he thinks its valuation is now “attractive.”

While the equity analyst sees domestic air cargo demand remaining “healthy” for the Mississauga-based company, he cautioned that he expects its more internationally focused Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, and Insurance segment and charter operations “to face end market-driven headwinds in the coming quarters.”

“We do not expect any major surprises with Cargojet’s Q4/25 results as we understand that the peak period for CJT’s domestic network was consistent with past years,” he said. “As was the case with Q3, ACMI and charter activity is likely to be weaker year-over-year due to lower international demand for air cargo in North America and a shorter length of haul for the routes the company operates for DHL. Cargojet did operate up to three aircraft for UPS on routes into Canada in Q4 with this incremental flying continuing into Q1/26, so we expect some boost to charter revenue.”

The analyst thinks overall global freight demand is higher than at the same point a year ago, while North American is starting lag, calling it “relatively weak” due to trade/tariff policies in the U.S. “which has stunted imports into the country.”

“International air freight rates, particularly trans-Pacific rates, were impacted throughout 2025 by uncertainty related to U.S. trade/tariff policy,” he added. “Rates from Hong Kong to North America were down 0.3 per cent year-over-year in November and down 1.9 per cent year-over-year in December and while still relatively soft, year-over-year declines have moderated compared to the 10-per-cent-plus declines seen in prior months. Additionally, we note that rates are still significantly higher than was the case in 2019 with December 82 per cent above December 2019. On the Frankfurt to North America routes, air freight rates were showing solid year-over-year increases throughout most of 2025, but dropped off significantly in December with rates down 16.5 per cent year-over-year, just the second year-over-year decline since October 2024. However, we note that trans-Atlantic rates spiked significantly in December 2024 (up 31.5 per cent year-over-year and up 47.8 year-over-year sequentially), so the year-over-year comparison was challenging. Cargojet has limited exposure to international spot freight rates with most of the company’s routes under long-term contract. Furthermore, air cargo routes into Canada are not exposed to the same volatility around tariff changes as is the case with U.S. routes.”

After trimming his 2026 estimates “due mainly to the refinement of some cost line items and higher depreciation assumption” and introducing a 2027 forecast, Mr. Doerksen hiked his target for Cargojet shares to $108 from $95, reiterating an “outperform” rating. The average target is $108.17.

“Valuation remains interesting, with the stock currently trading at 7.5 times EV/EBITDA based on our updated 2026 forecast, which is well below the long-term historical average for the stock at 10.5 times and also slightly below the post-COVID (last three years) average of 7.6 times. CJT shares do trade roughly in line with the P&C peer group (7.7 times 2026 EV/EBITDA), although valuations for the peers (UPS notably) are near-trough levels,” he explained.

Elsewhere, Raymond James’ Steve Hansen raised his target to $120 from $95 with an “outperform” rating.

“While CJT shares have already enjoyed a solid move off the bottom (up 35 per cent vs. its post-3Q25 close and vs. the TSX up 22 per cent over same time), we still believe the stock trades at an attractive valuation, offering healthy upside from current levels,” said Mr. Hansen.

TD Cowen analyst Graham Ryding expects Sprott Inc.’s (SII-T) fourth-quarter 2025 to display further assets under management growth at “a very strong pace” driven by the momentum in both precious metals and critical materials.

“Our $59.6-billion estimate (based primarily on public market data) implies 21-per-cent growth quarter-over-quarter and 89 per cent year-over-year …currently, 81 per cent of Sprott’s AUM is behind precious metals strategies, with 19 per cent in critical materials and other (largely uranium),” he said.

“We estimate Sprott generated inflows of $1.2-billion in Q4/25, implying an annualized flows rate of 10 per cent. We also estimate strong flows momentum ytd, with an incremental $1.30-billion through Jan. 20, 2026. Combined with market performance, we estimate AUM of $71.6-billion as of Jan. 20, 2026. Flows into physical silver and silver equity ETFs have been strong, while flows into the Physical Uranium Trust and critical materials ETFs have been contributing as well year-to-date.”

Touting a “constructive” outlook for gold and uranium alongside some “near-term downside potential” for silver, Mr. Ryding revised his forecast and now sees 20-per-cent AUM growth year-to-date. His full-year 2026 and 2027 earnings per share projections jumped 42 per cent and 45 per cent, respectively, along with “healthy” EBITDA margin expansion.

Maintaining his “hold” rating for Sprott shares, he hiked his target to a Street high of $176 from $130, exceeding the $147.01 average.

“Capital allocation should be a theme to monitor, in our view,” he said. “Given the strong AUM and earnings growth outlook, no debt, and expectation for cash to build on the balance sheet, we think capital return potential should be a theme for Sprott. The firm recently increased its quarterly dividend by 33 per cent (as of Q4/25), and we are forecasting a further increase in 2027. We believe Sprott has the balance sheet capacity for tuck-in M&A opportunities, or a special dividend (we think buybacks may be muted given the strong appreciation in the share price.”

National Bank Financial analyst Andrew Dusome sees Pecoy Copper Corp. (PCU-X) becoming large enough to be of M&A interest to major mining companies given the “strong upside potential” through the initial two drilling programs ecoy Copper-Gold-Molybdenum Project (Pecoy Project) in Southern Peru with “multiple targets identified for near-mine resource expansion.”

Also touting “the existing scale of the resource and the management team’s track record in M&A,” he initiated coverage of Vancouver-based company, which began trading on the Venture Exchange in early September through a reverse takeover, with an “outperform” rating.

In justifying his bullish stance, Mr. Dusome laid out three factors in his investment thesis:

* “Full consolidation of the Pecoy claims provides a first chance to explore the land package without constraint.”

Analyst: “With the full consolidation of the Pecoy claims and the nearby Torurume exploration project, PCU can begin exploration of the land package and unlock drilling opportunities that were previously unavailable due to the fragmented ownership. In the Phase 1 drilling campaign, management is focused on growing the resource to more than 1 billion tonnes through a 10,000 metre exploration campaign. The Phase 2 program will focus on follow-up drilling (40,000 metres) with the goal to grow the resource to more than 1.2 billion tonnes as well as advancing work on metallurgy, processing and ultimately an updated PEA. We expect these two phases of project advancement to drive NAV/sh growth if successfully executed.”

* The existing inferred resource “provides the foundation for a robust project.”

Analyst: “Based on the inferred resource, we have modelled a project with a 19-year Life-of-Mine (LOM) with average annual production of 131kt Cu at an All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of US$1.86/lb and initial capex of US$3.0-billion. The project has several attributes that we believe make it attractive and benefit LOM [life-of-mine] opex and capex including its location at low elevation in the Southern Peru copper belt close to roads, power, water, and a knowledgeable workforce as well as expected low LOM strip ratio and clean concentrate.”

* “Project attributes and management team’s prior success positions PCU as an eventual acquisition target.”

Analyst: “We believe the combination of exploration upside at the Pecoy Project to be unlocked through the restart of drilling along with the current inferred resource, which showcases a robust development project, results in PCU being a prime acquisition target for major copper producers, many of which are already operating in Peru. Pecoy’s management team has a strong history of M&A success with many members having served on the leadership team of Nomad Royalty prior to its acquisition by Sandstorm.”

Mr. Dusome set a target of $2.25. The average target on the Street is $2.12.

In other analyst actions:

* Acumen Capital’s Jim Byrne raised his Currency Exchange International Corp. (CXI-T) target to $32 from $30 with a “buy” rating following better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. The average is $30.

“We view the Q4/FY25 results as positive for the shares given the year-over-year growth and stable margins,” said Mr. Byrne. “The company delivered strong growth in its payments business as well as continued focus on the U.S. business.”

“The company is generating strong free cash flow and is actively looking for acquisition opportunities. The company has been actively repurchasing shares, and we anticipate they will continue their NCIB and potentially look at additional opportunities to return cash to shareholders (SIB, distribution/dividend).”

* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho raised his Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) target to $102 from $87, exceeding the $96.57 average, with a “buy” rating.

“We refreshed our estimates to bake in the recent Air Canada contract expansion, which will increase the fleet by four aircraft. While we do not anticipate new updates on EIF’s Australia ISR RFP, other ISR opportunities could materialize in 2026, particularly given geopolitical tensions. As a result, we raised our A&A valuation multiple. After increasing our estimates and rolling our valuation forward, our target is now $102,” said Mr. Ho.

* In response to “strong” fourth-quarter results, Stifel’s Martin Landry raised his Guru Organic Energy Corp. (GURU-T) target to $6.50 from $4.50, maintaining a “hold” rating. The average target is $7.98.

“Revenues came-in at $10-million, up 41 per cent year-over-year, and ahead of our expectations of $8.6 million,“ said Mr. Landry. ”The company benefited from product innovation and new listings in the United States. Retail sales, a better measure of performance given the new distribution structure blurs revenue comparability, increased by 20 per cent year-over-year in both Canada and the United States. GURU also exceeded profitability expectations, posting a positive EBITDA for a second consecutive quarter, partly due to more efficient marketing spending than before. Previously the company had to embark on national campaigns which were not always highly productive. GURU’s momentum continued in Q1FY26, and, with successful product innovation, management expect to gain market share. GURU’s shares trade at 4-times forward sales, only half a multiple lower than Celsius, which has faster growth and higher profitability. Hence, we believe that GURU’s shares are fairly valued.”

* Following the release of its 2026 outlook on Monday, National Bank’s Mohamed Sidibé raised his Iamgold Corp. (IMG-T) target to $34 from $28 with an “outperform” rating, believing the Street doesn’t properly value the potential of its Côté-Gosselin “Super Pit”. The average target is $25.41.

“As production, free cash flow generation, and NAV exposure continue to shift more heavily toward Canada, we see a more straightforward path for the stock to re-rate toward higher-quality jurisdictional peers,” he said.

* Barclays’ Dan Levy raised his Magna International Inc. (MGA-N, MG-T) to US$58, exceeding the US$54.85, from US$52 with an “equal-weight” rating.

* Desjardins Securities’ Allison Carson moved her Orla Mining Corp. (OLA-T) target to $29 from $28, above the $27.40 average, with a “buy” rating.

“We updated our model following 4Q25 production results, 2026 guidance and results from the South Railroad FS [feasibility study]. Following these updates, our target has increased slightly … After strong 4Q25 production results, production guidance for 2026 came in above our expectations for Musselwhite. The South Railroad FS was largely in line with expectations and we have made some tweaks to our model, detailed below. Overall, we view these first updates in 2026 positively ahead of a catalyst-rich year,” he said.

* BMO’s Étienne Ricard moved his Saputo Inc. (SAP-T) target to $41 from $37 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $42.86.

“Heading into fiscal Q3/26 reporting, our focus remains on upside potential to U.S. margins as Saputo reaps cost improvement benefits from facility optimizations; that being said, we remain mindful of elevated volatility to dairy commodity factors on the back of declining cheese block prices,” he said. ” In our view, meaningful upside to the shares resides in Saputo achieving double-digit margins in the U.S., a feat last achieved in fiscal 2018, that would require more favorable commodity values.”

* BofA Securities’ Ken Hoexter raised his target on TFI International Inc. (TFII-N, TFII-T) to US$93 from US$90, maintaining an “underperform” rating. The average is US$118.86.