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If you’re into social media trends, the AFC Championship Game lines up well with “2026 is the new 2016.” The No. 2 seed New England Patriots are heading to the Mile High City to meet the Denver Broncos, who are the No. 1 seed in the conference. And that’s about where the similarities end.
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, legendary Hall of Fame quarterbacks, were on the field that day for New England and Denver. This was supposed to be a matchup of second-year quarterbacks Drake Maye and Bo Nix, but the Broncos lost Nix to an ankle injury in the Divisional Round against the Bills. Jarrett Stidham, who hasn’t thrown a pass in a game all season, will start in arguably the most important game of his career. Can the Broncos pull out another magical win, or will the Patriots overwhelm them and book a trip to Super Bowl LX?
We’ve lined up a same-game parlay for Patriots vs. Broncos with odds from DraftKings and recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. For a full game forecast for Patriots vs. Broncos and more NFL player prop recommendations, head to SportsLine.
Patriots vs. Broncos same-game parlay picks
Patriots -4.5
The SportsLine model is high on Denver, as the Broncos cover in 58% of simulations and win in 46% of them. The thinking is the Patriots won’t have much game film on Stidham, who has appeared in 20 NFL games and played relatively decent football. However, Stidham was in New England for his first two seasons, so there’s plenty of information on him. Even with Denver’s excellent defense and homefield advantage, there’s going to be a dropoff from Nix to Stidham and it’s coming at the worst time for the Broncos. I expect to see a more contracted offensive game plan, and that means the Patriots can focus more on fundamental plays instead of pressuring the quarterback to make questionable decisions. The market has moved this line down from Patriots -5.5, so there’s money coming in on Denver but I don’t buy it. New England has covered in both its playoff games.
Under 42.5
New England’s first playoff game went well Under the total, while the second one went Over in large part due to a defensive touchdown. The Patriots are one of the worst defensive teams in the red zone, but they’re excellent over the rest of the field. They’re good enough where you wonder how the Broncos are going to get in the red zone. Denver’s defense knows it’ll have to keep the team in the game as well. The SportsLine model has the Under hitting in 59% of simulations.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 rushing yards
Patriots fans will be clamoring for TreVeyon Henderson to get more touches, but Stevenson has been great in these playoffs. He’s gone Over this particular line in both games and has simply been more productive with his carries than the rookie. Stevenson has also been involved more in the receiving game, and the Patriots simply favor the veteran at this point. Denver’s defense is no slouch, but volume and efficiency should be enough to get Stevenson past this mark. I’d also be willing to take the Over on his combined rushing and receiving yards (74.5) given his usage over the first two postseason games.