NFL home teams haven’t finished above .500 against the spread (ATS) over an entire regular season since 2017-18. And over the last 20 years, their cumulative cover rate is approximately 49%. While, in the most simple terms, there wasn’t a home-field advantage in league-wide spread betting over those two decades, several teams have been great.
From 2005-24, the Green Bay Packers covered the spread in more than 58% of regular-season games at Lambeau Field. It’s more than 3 percentage points higher than the next-closest team, the Seattle Seahawks (55%) and approximately 16 points higher than the league’s worst team, the Jacksonville Jaguars (42%).
The Packers haven’t posted a sub-.500 home ATS record since 2013-14. And that’s their lone sub-.500 season since 2009. If this exercise didn’t include the first two seasons (2005-06 and 2006-07), their cover rate jumps to nearly 62%. No other team is above 55% over those same 18 seasons.
RankTeamATS Win Pct.1Packers.5842Seahawks.5523Vikings.5474Steelers.5435Patriots.5286Bills.5256Lions.5258Colts.5099Saints.50710Ravens.50311Cardinals.49712Bengals.4941349ers.49114Cowboys.48814Jets.48816Bears.48416Eagles.48418Panthers.47818Dolphins.47820Chargers.47521Chiefs.46622Giants.46322Broncos.46322Browns.46322Falcons.46326Titans.45727Rams.45628Texans.45429Commanders.45130Raiders.43631Buccaneers.43432Jaguars.417
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