UFC 325 Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 325 picks and predictions for January 31 with the main event headlined by Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes in a featherweight title fight. The main card starts up at 9:00pm ET from Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia.

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes: UFC 325 Main Event

Saturday, January 31UFC 325 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)Moneyline:Alexander Volkanovski -150 vs Diego Lopes +125Rounds:4.5 Rounds (Over -115 / Under -115)Fight Time:Main Card Starts at 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PTArena:Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, AustraliaTV:Paramount+

UFC 325 Predictions: Undercard

Yizha -210 vs Kaan Ofli +162 

Yizha is the better fighter here and the line makes sense. He lost his UFC debut to Gabriel Santos, a strong opponent, but showed toughness by surviving after getting rocked and going the distance.

Yizha prefers to  grapple but has shown he can finish, knocking out his last opponent  early, and looks skilled everywhere.

Ofli picked up his first UFC win against Ricardo Ramos, but that came after nearly being submitted and  relying on fence grabs to escape.

Ramos is known for making mistakes, and Ofli’s striking isn’t good enough to keep Yizha honest. Yizha is the pick, and fight not to go the distance is a strong angle. 

Jonathan Micallef -146 vs Oban Elliott +114 

Elliott was a bit exposed in his last fight, as expected. He has heart, but he doesn’t fight naturally, thinking too much and often being a step behind in movement and reactions.

While Elliott can wrestle, he lost  clinch and wrestling exchanges against KO last time out. Micallef is a  solid striker with submissions on his résumé, though he isn’t especially fast.

Elliott’s weaknesses are there to exploit, but it’s unclear if Micallef will capitalize fully. I’ll take a stab on Elliott as the underdog.

Jacob Malkoun -170 v Torrez Finney +132 

The UFC clearly doesn’t want Finney winning the way he has been— simply picking guys up, taking them down, and laying on them without throwing strikes.

Even in his last fight, a judge awarded the bout to the opponent despite Finney controlling the entire fight because of his lack of offense.

Malkoun has legitimate wrestling and grappling skills to  defend takedowns, and his striking is significantly better.

He’ll make Finney work, and with Finney carrying so much muscle, fatigue will be a factor. Malkoun should win, and a late finish due to exhaustion wouldn’t be surprising.

Cam Rowston -295 vs Cody Brundage +220

Rowston is the easy pick here. Since his Contender Series loss to Finney, he’s shown new aggression and finishing ability, scoring first round knockouts both on Contender Series and in his UFC debut. His striking looks sharp, he uses his length well with body kicks, and his counters are clean.

Brundage has a history of fading and quitting, with multiple fights stopped after questionable back-of-the-head strikes. His ground game, striking, and cardio all lack upside. Rowston should dominate this matchup.

Billy Elekana -220 vs Junior Tafa +168 

Anytime there’s an opportunity to bet against a Tafa, it’s worth looking  at, and this price is appealing. Junior Tafa keeps changing weight classes  and losing, with no takedown defense, no ground game, and very limited cardio.

His only UFC wins came against fighters no longer on the roster, and he’s been beaten by leg kicks and submissions.

Elekana lost his UFC debut on extremely short notice, faded after an aggressive first round, but has since won two straight with full camps. He has better cardio, more weapons, and multiple paths to victory. Elekana is the clear pick.

Quillan Salkilld -700 vs Jamie Mullarkey +525 

Mullarkey steps in on short notice to save the fight for fellow Australian Salkilld. While Mullarkey is coming off a win, it was a decision against  Bedoya, who hasn’t won a UFC fight.

Mullarkey appears to be nearing  the end of his competitiveness at this level, lacking power, durability,  and upside.

Salkilld is riding a three-fight UFC win streak, coming off a devastating knockout, and continues to improve.

At just 26 years old, he’s well-rounded with power and a solid ground game. Salkilld should win, likely inside the distance.

Tallison Teixeira -340 v Tai Tuivasa +250 

Tuivasa has lost five straight and continues to be booked on Australian cards for crowd appeal. He’s a tough brawler who throws big strikes without much setup, movement, or variety. Teixeira has never been out of the first round, so someone is likely getting knocked out early.

He’s taller, more technical, and owns a significant reach advantage. Betting  value is limited due to heavy juice, even on early-finish props. This should be fun to watch, but not a strong betting opportunity.

Rafael Fiziev -115 vs Mauricio Ruffy -115 

This is a striker-versus-striker matchup and the odds reflect how close it is. Ruffy is a dynamic striker, but his last fight exposed serious holes in his wrestling, takedown defense, and ground game.

His strength of  schedule doesn’t compare to Fiziev’s, who has faced elite competition like Gaethje, Gamrot, and Bahamondes.

Fiziev showed improved wrestling in his last fight and remains sharp with leg kicks and clean striking. Ruffy has knockout upside, but Fiziev’s experience and completeness give him the edge. Fiziev by decision is the pick.

Benoit Saint Denis -295 vs Dan Hooker +220 

Hooker was dominated by Tsarukyan, but Tsarukyan is operating at an  elite level right now. Saint Denis controlled Ruffy on the ground, but Hooker’s takedown defense is far better than Ruffy’s, and Ruffy was  able to get up multiple times.

Hooker is a proven warrior who recently beat Gamrot and Jalin Turner. Saint Denis still has durability concerns after absorbing significant damage in recent fights, including being heavily hurt by Moicano.

Hooker’s willingness to brawl makes him a dangerous wildcard. I’ll take Hooker for the upset and look at the under.

UFC 325 Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski -150 v Diego Lopes +125

This rematch should be competitive, as their first fight was close with Volk edging early rounds while Lopes improved late.

Lopes is very hittable and was getting tagged badly against Silva before landing a  spinning elbow finish. While Lopes can secure takedowns, he hasn’t done much with them lately.

Volk is 37 and hasn’t fought in nearly a  year, but looked sharp in the first meeting despite taking damage.

Lopes holds the reach and height advantage, and if he brings more urgency early, he can flip the result. This is dog or pass, with Lopes capable of sneaking out a close win.

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