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Righto, that’s us done for now. But fear not, we’ll be right back with you for the men’s semis and, in the meantime, we’ll have this evening’s Europa League matches to keep you from your life. Until next time, peace out.
Sabalenka tells TNT that overall she played great and her tactics worked, so she’s happy to win in straights. She’s a powerful player but thinks she proved that she’s got touch, a great slice and good defence.
Asked about the hindrance issue, she explains that it was a reaction, not deliberate, but natural, and says she’s grateful for it: “She pissed me off, I won that game which was important, so thanks a lot. Next time, don’t hesitate”
Then, asked if she’ll dance, she enjoys a little shimmy, and we’re apologised to for her frankly disguzting language; rightly so, I was in tears.
“Do you feel like the inevitability of these matches (quarters and semis) has become heightened even further in the last few years in both the ATP and WTA?” wonders Shreyas Erawan, “Or is that just the nostalgia-fuelled lens I’m viewing the Fedal days? It felt like there were at least 4-8 players who could beat them at a Slam on any given day – the likes of Tsonga, Berdych et al even if they didn’t have great H2Hs when it all played out. Even the most Thanos-like out of them all, Djokovic, didn’t induce this sinking feeling of dread when he faced the Thiems and Medvedevs of this world.
WTA certainly seems to have become less and less chaotic but that seems to be a welcome change as it was almost unbearably messy at times. Plus it has s nice core group of around 5-6 players who can challenge each other most of the time.”
The difference in Federer-Nadal era was that for most of it, Murray and Djokovic were also around, Wawrinka too, whereas we’ve seen nothing to even threaten Sincaraz in the last year. Them meeting in another final would be great to watch, but yes, there’s a sense of inevitability that it’ll be them and in this tournament, the other matches haven’t been tight enough to distract us from that reality.
I don’t think the women’s is predictable, though – Sabalenka hasn’t won Ronald Garros or Wimbledon, say, and I’d not be shocked if Rybakina beats her on Saturday.
In that regard and for what it’s worth, here’s a piece on individual sports and dominant champions…
Sabalenka v Rybakina is a helluva final, but Rybakina will have to play better than she did tonight if she’s to win – her second serve, in particular, is a problem, and her forehand became erratic and the match progressed. On the other hand, she hits it beautifully, knows she can win a major, and won’t be moved by the power coming at her from the other side of the net. If Rybakina times the ball as she can, she can win, but Sabalenka’s higher modal level makes her a strong favourite.
Rybakina, who lost to Sabalenka from a set up in the 2023 final, says it was such a battle. It was an epic second set, Pegula played so well and fought till the end, so she’s super-happy to be in the final.
Asked about the closing stages, she says it was really really stressful for her and team, enduring “a little flashback” to the round-of-32 tiebreak she lost to Anna Blinkova in the 2024 edition of this competition, the longest ever played in women’s tennis. She’s really proud that, then when tired, she fought for each point, and having started the match well, there are lots of positives for her to take from it.
Asked about that 2023 final, she says it was a great battle, Sabalenka deserved to win it; she’s hoping to enjoy the contest and serve better than today,
Finally, asked how she’ll prepare for the final, she’ll keep the routine so practise and work with the physio, then maybe go into the city to do a bit of shopping and refresh her brain for the match.
Pegula will be disappointed, rightly so. We might say she was over-matched and under-powered – we’d be right to – but unlike Svitolina, who tried everything and played roughly as well as she can, the sense with the second semi is that Pegula only got herself going once the pressure was off and it was almost too late. She’ll be experiencing extreme regret, I shouldn’t wonder, and though it remains the case that Rybakina would still probably have won by virtue of being the better player with the bigger weapons, that is not a reality with which Pegula is likely to console herself.
ShareElena Rybakina (5) beats Jessica Pegula (6) 6-3 7-6(7)
A backhand winner down the line and Rybakina will face Sabalenka in a final I wish they could play right this instant. She made hard work of it, but there can be no argument: she’s a brilliant player who deserves to be where she is.
Elena Rybakina (left) is congratulated by Jessica Pegula. Photograph: Asanka Brendon Ratnayake/APShare
Updated at 07.16 EST
Pegula 3-6 6-6 (7-8) Rybakina She cannot…
Updated at 07.07 EST
Pegula 3-6 6-6 (7-8) Rybakina An ace down the T, a fourth match point, and can Pegula land a first serve?
Pegula 3-6 6-6 (7-7) Rybakina Eeee, Rybakina steels herself to cart a majestic forehand winner to the corner – given the grief she’s had off that wing lately, that took stones. But she’s soon another set-point down, a return dropping long; Pegula, pinned in the corner, nets a return and on we go!
Elena Rybakina flings a forehand to Jessica Pegula. Photograph: Edgar Su/ReutersShare
Updated at 07.21 EST
Pegula 3-6 6-6 (6-5) Rybakina A wild return gives Pegula the lead, on serve, but a brute unleashed down the middle brings us all-square again … before the American finds a terrific angle on the backhand, which facilitates the overhead putaway, AND PEGULA HAS SET POINT, ON SERVE! This is exhilarating stuff now!
Pegula 3-6 6-6 (4-4) Rybakina Rybakina consolidates the mini-break for 4-2, but a fault and a let increase the tension, reflected in her reddening coupon, and though Pegula doesn’t put away a swing-volley, she does enough to incite the error and we’re back on serve at 4-3, a forehand into the net levelling the score. This is frantic now and much the better for it, the tension and suspense palpable.
Updated at 07.02 EST
Pegula 3-6 6-6 (2-3) Rybakina I can’t say I like her chances and she’s well behind in the first point, but a net cord keeps her in it, she hustles and scurries, and just about saves the mini-break. Oh, and have a look! Rybakina hits first serves, winning the first point, only to overhit a backhand, and Pegula has the advantage at 2-1 … one she immediately cedes with a loose forehand, then another into the net means it’s now the Kazakh who leads.
Pegula 3-6 6-6 Rybakina* Pegula plays a poor overhead but Rybakina can’t take advantage, falling behind in the game at 0-15 … only for a return to fall long and level us up. A colossal serve then requires two putaways, but disbursed with prejudice, but a nervous forehand, flapped wide when in control of the point, takes us to 30-all. So, facing a second serve, Pegula comes right in to return, then ups the power on the forehand to force the error, and again, she has a chance to break back … but a forehand into the net, responding to a pretty decent length, takes us to deuce. Just when she needs it most, Rybakina’s first serve has deserted her and Pegula is properly getting after the second, a return and swing-volley combo making her advantage … converted when a forehand flies long! It’s taken a while, but this now feels like a contest, and we’ll now enjoy a breaker to see if Pegula can force a decider.
Jessica Pegula stretches for a backhand return. Photograph: William West/AFP/Getty ImagesShare
Updated at 06.59 EST
*Pegula 3-6 5-6 Rybakina Much as I’d love a deciding set, my sense remains that Rybakina will eventually do whatever the situation demands of her, and both players know it. Sure enough, though Pegula makes 15-0, an error and a poor drop, returned with a dead net-cord, means she’s now down 15-30, the Kazakh then guiding an inside-out backhand down the line to open space for a forehand winner into the opposite corner; 15-40. And for the second time in the set, Pegula breaks back only too be broken again herself immediately afterwards, Rybakina dominating the decisive rally until the error comes. She’ll now serve for the match a second time.
Pegula 3-6 5-5 Rybakina* Alright! Pegula flows a forehand winner down the line for 0-15, finally remembering who she is and what she does, then steps in and slaps a backhand return also down the line, for another winner. Rybakina, though, doesn’t panic, a decent serve inciting the netted response, then an ace down the T takes us to 30-all, evidencing an athlete at one with their mind. Oooh, but a tentative forehand into the net – pressure! – donates break-back point, then an overhit forehand levels a set in a match that looked over! Can Pegula embrace this sudden discovery of form; will Rybakina still be thinking about her three spurned match points?
*Pegula 3-6 4-5 Rybakina A forehand winner gives Rybakina 0-15, but she then goes long to level the game before netting a return for 30-15. But again, her forehand is targeted and she nets, then again again … but this time, Rybakina is fractionally wide. On 40-30, though, a forehand winner forces deuce, Pegula goes wide when rushed on the backhand by a terrific length, in the process ceding match point … saved when Rybakina goes long. But she soon faces another, wilting when forced to keep hitting balls under pressure, and when a second serve comes back with compound interest, the match feels over. However Pegula forces her opponent to play another shot and she goes wide … only to smoke a devastating return to seize another match point … only to go long and restore deuce. It almost feels like there’s just one player here, what happens dictated solely by Rybakina, but when another error offers the American advantage, she responds with a service winner that at least demands her opponent serve for it.
Pegula 3-6 3-5 Rybakina* Big serve down the T, desperate loopy return that looks awkward, forehand winner punished to the corner; 15-0. Kicking serve, backhand return long; 30-0. And though another loopy return doesn’t get the same treatment, at 30-15 a service winner raises two game points … the first saved when Pegula lands a return on the line, then sweeps a forehand winner towards the corner. For all the difference it makes, an ace down the T taking Rybakina to within a game of the final, with the sense she’s got loads left.
Elena Rybakina plays a forehand to Jessica Pegula. Photograph: Tingshu Wang/ReutersShare
Updated at 06.57 EST
*Pegula 3-6 3-4 Rybakina To serve an ace out wide from the advantage court requires a ridiculous amount of power and timing – and Rybakina did it twice in the last game, making it look so easy you wonder why doesn’t do it every time. At 15-all, an inside-out backhand to one corner opens the space for a forehand down the line into the other, and this match is speeding to a conclusion now. Pegula, though, forces her way to 30-all, then a forehand-volley combo earns game point, quickly converted, but can she retrieve the break? The chances do not look good.
Jessica Pegula eyes the ball as she prepares to play a forehand return to Elena Rybakina. Photograph: Dita Alangkara/APShare
Updated at 06.44 EST
Pegula 3-6 2-4 Rybakina* Pegula sticks in the first rally of the game and Rybakina goes long with a backhand down the line; an ace out wide follows, underlining the relative difference in strength. A netted backhand then offers 30-15, another ace out wide raises two points for consolidation and just as the game looks secure, Rybakina overhits a forehand having worked the opportunity to finish the rally; 40-30, and a bit of pressure. But a long return releases it, and this is almost over.
*Pegula 3-6 2-3 Rybakina An error then a winner on return make 0-30, Pegula then forced to find a brilliant shot from the back when another fine return gets to her faster than ideal. But it only postpones the pressure, another superb point raising two opportunities to break again. A big serve and overhead negates the first, but a backhand which clips the line and skids converts the second, and I’m afraid there’s a significant class differential in operation here; Pegula can play better, but ultimately there’s not loads she can do against an opponent superior in the most important areas.
Pegula 3-6 2-2 Rybakina* Mentally, Pegula hasn’t recovered from Rybakina’s dominant start, and is struggling to deal with her forehand coming under attack; her coach is trying to reassure her that she knows the tactic and can cope by giving herself space, but she won’t let herself believe it. Still, she gets to 30-all from 30-0 as the Kazakh seeks to endorse and has a look at a second serve; she doesn’t give it the treatment she should, but an error from Rybakina hands over break-back point … converted when she stops in the rally long enough to benefit from the error. Might that be a momentum switch? Er, probably not, but you never know.
*Pegula 3-6 1-2 Rybakina At 15-0, Rybaina forces Pegula to play another shot thanks to a running forehand down the line and it’s netted, then a further netted forehand takes us to 30-all. Pegula isn’t enjoying this – you can see her getting down on herself with every error – and even when a fine backhand switches momentum in the next rally, a miserable volley allows Rybakina to go down the line, and the stretch-volley again hits the net. Then, serving at break-point down, Pegula lands one right in the slot, the ball power-glided into the corner for a winner, and I’m afraid this match is passing her by.
Elena Rybakina plays a backhand return to Jessica Pegula. Photograph: Dar Yasin/APShare
Updated at 06.42 EST
Pegula 3-6 1-1 Rybakina* Every time Pegula talks to her box, she lets us know she’s not happy; her coach is constantly trying to reassure her she can win, a perspective she doesn’t seem to share. With good reason, Rybakina responding to a 0-15 deficit with a glorious backhand winner then a volley at the net – having approached cross not line, a dangerous tactic showing her confidence. She holds to 30 but never looked under threat.
*Pegula 3-6 1-0 Rybakina Even as Pegula makes 40-0, there’s the sense that it’s taking everything she’s got, while Rybakina has plenty in reserve. She holds to 15, but can she make an impression on return?
ShareShareElena Rybakina wins the first set against Jessica Pegula 6-3
Pegula 3-6 Rybakina* Between games, Pegula’s coach told her to get her legs under her instead of lunging at the ball – currently, she’s hitting off balance, rushed by her opponent’s power, when she might step back to give herself a little more time. At 15-all, Rybakina delivers a service winner, her next effort is also too good, raising two set points … but a leaping backhand winner from Pegula ups the pressure. For all the difference it makes, a forehand winner larruped cross-court cementing the advantage.
Elena Rybakina prepares to fire off a forehand. Photograph: Edgar Su/ReutersShare
Updated at 06.10 EST
*Pegula 3-5 Rybakina It really feels like, after a weird period with slams won by all manner of player, women’s tennis is on the cusp of a golden age. Sabalenka and Swiatek already have 10 between them, Gauff has two, Osaka four, Rybakina one, and Anisimova is coming, Andreeva too. There are going to be some serious tussles over the next five years and I’ve not a clue how they’ll shake out but, in the meantime, Pegula holds to 30, forcing the Kazakh to serve for the first set.
Pegula 2-5 Rybakina* More like it from Pegula, a gorgeous backhand cross breaking the sideline for 0-15. But a forehand winner gives Rybakina 30-15 and from there she secures another straightforward hold, the authority in her play a delight to behold. She’s a game away from the first set.
*Pegula 2-4 Rybakina Pegula nets a backhand for 15-all and for now at least, it feels like she’s playing not competing, reacting not dictating. I don’t know if it’s nerves or just how well Rybakina is playing, but the Kazakh dominates the next rally to make 15-30, Pegula telling her box she can’t do anything before hitting long to donate two double-break points. She saves both, though, then nails her best serve of the match so far, down the T and unreturned, then Rybakina sends a backhand long, but there’s nevertheless a big difference between the way the two are playing.
Jessica Pegula plays a backhand return to Elena Rybakina. Photograph: Asanka Brendon Ratnayake/APShare
Updated at 05.54 EST
Pegula 1-4 Rybakina* Rybakina makes it seem so easy – her power is so natural, almost lazy. Unlike Sabalenka, she never looks like she’s trying to hit it harder than anything’s been hit before, the speed of her ball more about timing than physicality. She holds to love and as long as she serves like this, she’ll be very hard to beat.
*Pegula 1-3 Rybakina there were signs in that last game that Pegula is growing into it, but also signs that she can do all the growing she likes and it won’t matter. And the next game offers more of the same, Rybakina finding a terrific backhand winner at 30-0 to make things interesting, before failing to attack the kind of second serve Sabalenka would’ve liquidised. And when Pegula goes wide, at 40-30 she has another go at a second delivery, again failing to attack it, and the American is on the board.
Pegula 0-3 Rybakina* This is a very useful start from Rybakina, effortlessly emphasising her points of difference to make 30-0. And though a better shot from Pegula, deep into court, rushes her into netting, she quickly raises two game points and looks to have secured the first, only for a decent get to force her into volleying … and again, she nets. Ooooh, and look at that! Out of nowhere, Pegula hooks a forehand winner from centre to corner, making deuce – she’ll need more of those – but a further unforced error donates advantage, and a return into the net means Rybakina consolidates her break.
Elena Rybakina eyes the ball as she prepares to serve to Jessica Pegula. Photograph: Jaimi Joy/ReutersShare
Updated at 05.53 EST
*Pegula 0-2 Rybakina The power differential is apparent immediately, Pegula forced to play several shots to still find herself down 0-30; Rybakina has started really well and gets close with a flat forehand return, which is just long, then again. But when Pegula wafts one of her own that sails over the baseline, she must face break point, finding a decent serve only to swat a backhand into the net when it’s returned well. Stop me if you’ve seen this one before.
Pegula 0-1 Rybakina* Rybakina’s serve looks in good working order, her ball toss nice and high, and she nails three first deliveries in making 40-0. And the one second go she has to take is no less devastating, down the T and almost an ace, then cleaned up via forehand.
Jessica Pegula stretches to make a forehand to Elena Rybakina. Photograph: Quinn Rooney/Getty ImagesShare
Updated at 05.42 EST
Rybakina to serve, ready … play.
In a way, this second match is a facsimile of the first, except Pegula is better than Svitolina and Rybakina isn’t as good as Sabalenka – with both playing perhaps as well as they ever have. Rybakina, in particular, might’ve hit a new level in recent months, her improved consistency underpinning her natural power; if she plays well, she’ll win, but Pegula has the skill and smarts to stop her from doing that.