When the offseason began, B/R predicted that Zac Gallen would sign a two-year/$45 million deal with the Diamondbacks that allowed him to opt out after the 2026 season and return to free agency next offseason.
However, the Snakes instead brought back Merrill Kelly on a two-year, $40 million, meaning they are likely comfortable with Gallen walking in free agency, which will allow them to collect draft-pick compensation because he rejected a qualifying offer.
That QO being attached to Gallen has surely limited his free-agent market.
Between 2022 and 2023, Gallen posted a 3.04 ERA across 65 starts, posting consecutive top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting. That version of Gallen would have gotten a bag in free agency, and teams wouldn’t have worried about giving up draft-pick compensation to sign him.
Over the last two seasons, though, Gallen has a 4.31 ERA and 99 ERA+ (the league average ERA+ is 100). With that context, it’s not particularly surprising that any of the suitors that have been mentioned with Gallen all offseason, such as the Cubs, haven’t signed him. They’re not going to want to give up draft-pick compensation for only a year or two guaranteed, but with how he’s performed the last two seasons, is anyone going to want to guarantee Gallen more than a year or two?
Assuming a return to Arizona isn’t in the cards, how large of a deal Gallen gets elsewhere will determine what type of draft compensation the DBacks get in return. As noted by Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors, the Diamondbacks will receive a compensatory selection following the first round of the 2026 MLB Draft if Gallen signs for more than $50 million. If Gallen signs for less than $50 million, the Diamondbacks’ comp pick will “come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in range of the 70th-75th overall selection.”