The first real clues of the 2026 Formula 1 pecking order began to emerge during last week’s closed Barcelona shakedown, the first on-track running of the sport’s new regulation era.
While lap times remain unofficial and incomplete, the early signals were enough to trigger debate and speculation across the Formula 1 paddock about who has adapted best to the reset.
Six-time Grand Prix winner and long-time F1 observer Riccardo Patrese believes Mercedes has already positioned itself as the benchmark heading into the season-opening Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne.
Drawing on both recent form and historical precedent, Patrese pointed to Mercedes’ proven ability to hit the ground running when the rules change: “Mercedes proved already in the last change four years ago that they were very good and found the right solutions immediately. And everybody says that they are good also with the new project. I’m curious to see how they are against the opposition.”
Despite the growing consensus around Mercedes, Patrese warned that the competitive picture may not be as straightforward once racing begins.
He highlighted the potential impact of Adrian Newey’s new project and Honda’s power unit development as an unknown variable in the early hierarchy: “Everybody’s talking about Mercedes, but who knows if maybe Adrian Newey can have a good car with Honda. We know that when they produce a good engine, Honda are not bad at all.”
New changes make it interesting for the fans, for the public and the media
For Patrese, the wider significance of the regulation reset goes beyond which team starts strongest. After a season where competitive predictability dulled interest, he believes the new rules have reintroduced uncertainty and genuine intrigue: “The new changes make it interesting for the fans, for the public and the media, otherwise it could be boring as it was for a lot of last year.”
Mercedes’ advantage, however, is complicated by the presence of another top team using the same power unit. McLaren entered the winter as the reference point following its late 2025 surge, and Patrese sees no reason to exclude them from early title contention.
While Mercedes may hold the edge on paper, Patrese stressed that customer teams can still pose a direct threat: “We already knew that McLaren would be the team to beat. Now, anything can happen so it’s good for curiosity. At the moment Mercedes would be favourites for the constructors’ title, but remember that McLaren has a Mercedes engine. And McLaren has a team to produce a good car, a very good car. So, we have to see how McLaren can be with these new rules.”
Beyond the constructors’ picture, Patrese also sees a potentially tight internal battle forming at Mercedes between George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli. After a steep learning curve during his rookie season, Patrese believes Antonelli ended the year showing signs that he can now operate at the level expected of a front-running driver: “Kimi Antonelli proved himself towards the end of the season. He started to perform how he was expected to, and sometimes he gives trouble to Russell.”
Antonelli can challenge Russell for the championship
Patrese acknowledged that Antonelli’s first year in Formula 1 was always going to be about adaptation, but argues that phase should now be complete: “In his first F1 season, he had a lot to learn and to adapt to many situations. So now he should know everything. And as I said last year, we had to leave him in peace and not to criticise him.”
With a potentially Formula 1 championship-contending car under him, Patrese believes the expectations shift sharply for the young Italian in 2026. There is no longer space for development excuses if the machinery allows him to fight at the front: “This year, if he has a car to win the championship, which could be the case, and he has a very good teammate like Russell, he cannot have excuses.”
Consistency, rather than outright speed, is where Patrese sees the season being decided, especially under a new power unit formula that could test reliability across the grid: “Kimi has to jump on this train and try to fight for the championship, to be competitive to fight for the championship.
“Maybe Russell can beat him, or it can be close between them. He must be on the same level as Russell now, because maybe he can make a mistake, Russell can make a mistake, or the car can break down.”
With reliability still an open question under the new regulations, Patrese underlined why this season represents a defining moment for Antonelli’s career trajectory: “There is also more possibility this season that the cars can break down with these new engines. So, for Antonelli, this is an important season because he really needs to be there ready to be consistent.”