Heading into fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season for Canadian diversified financial companies, National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn continues to “expect an uneven and uncertain macroeconomic backdrop,” but he continues to put “a low probability on recession risks.”
“With neither tailwinds nor headwinds from a macro picture, companies delivering strong strategic execution with value upside will see the most upside in 2026,” he said.
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Gloyn revised his estimates and target prices for several companies in his coverage universe, reiterating his positive view on the property and casualty insurance sector.
The analyst selected two stocks as his “top ideas” for investors currently:
* IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T) with an “outperform” rating and $82 target, up from $68 previously. The average target on the Street is $67.50, according to LSEG data.
“We expect growth to outperform consensus as i) core businesses have returned to consistent inflows, ii) Rockefeller is now delivering positive earnings, and iii) ChinaAMC lapping easier comps,” said Mr. Gloyn. “Additionally, IGM has signaled an increase in capital return, recently announcing a 5-per-cent NCIB for 2026 versus 2.5 per cent in 2025, and above consensus forecasts of 1-2 per cent. With $700 mln of unallocated capital, $400-million of FCF above the common dividend, and a payout ratio trending into the low-50s vs. a 60-per-cent target IGM has ample capacity to accelerate repurchases and raise the dividend, which would be the first increase in a decade. Value remains underappreciated, stripping out the value of strategic investments in ChinaAMC, Wealthsimple and Rockefeller implies the core platforms are trading at only approximately 5 times P/E, well below peers at more than 11 times”
* Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T) with an “outperform” rating and a $59 target, up from $57. The average is $54.50.
“We expect TSU will continue to deliver double-digit top-line growth, mid-80-per-cent combined ratio, and mid-to-high teens ROE supported by ongoing strong specialty insurance operations, a scaling U.S. primary insurance platform, higher quality U.S. Programs business, and a rock-solid balance sheet,” he said. “In our view, TSU has delivered solid results and demonstrated value in the U.S. Programs franchise while the market continues to price in an overly pessimistic level of risk around the legacy overhang. A move back toward its historical average P/E implies over 40-per-cent upside before factoring in any earnings growth.”
Mr. Gloyn also named a trio of “core holdings” for investors, which he said are “must own if you don’t already.”
For those “core” holdings, Mr. Gloyn’s ratings and targets are:
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T) with an “outperform” rating and $3,200 target (unchanged). The average target on the Street is $2,887.54, according to LSEG data.Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $50 target, up from $48. Average: $41.50.Brookfield Corp. (BN-N/BN-T) with an “outperform” rating and US$58 target, up from US$56. Average: $54.43.
“Fairfax: Our top idea in P&C. Least affected by softer insurance cycle, huge excess cash and capital position will allow for buybacks and minority interest purchases that drive ROE higher, value continues to be underappreciated. Element Fleet: Solid strategic execution continues to support double-digit EPS, FCF, dividend growth. Recent tech acquisitions like Autofleet and Car IQ will accelerate the digital transformation leading to revenue upside but more importantly, operating margin upside. Valuation is still extremely cheap at approximately 7-per-cent FCF yields vs. high quality peers trading sub-5 per cent. Brookfield Corp: we prefer the corp over the BAM / BBU plays in our coverage given the opportunity presented in the Insurance Strategy, upside from recovering real estate values, upside from active IPO/capital markets backdrop to generate carried interest, and the benefit of investing at the forefront of the AI infrastructure build out. Valuation at 15 times P/E leaves plenty of upside as peers trade in the high-teens to low-20s,” he explained.
Mr. Gloyn made one rating revision, moving ECN Capital Corp. (ECN-T) to “tender” from “outperform” with a $3.10 target, down from $5 and matching the average on the Street, on the expectation its acquisition by a group of investors led by Warburg Pincus will proceed.
Mr. Gloyn’s other target changes are:
Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T, “sector perform”) to $7 from $7.50. Average: $7.50.Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T, “outperform”) to $210 from $245. Average: $192Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T, “sector perform”) to $77 from $69. Average: $69.33.
While TD Cowen analyst Cherilyn Radbourne warns the short-term environment for Canadian heavy equipment dealers “remains dynamic”, leading her to be “somewhat cautious” on the fourth-quarter of 2025, she believes the group’s medium- to long-term earnings prospects are improving, seeing industry bellwether Caterpillar Inc.’s (CAT-N) results as “very encouraging.”
“CAT achieved record Q4/25 and 2025 sales/revenues and has a record backlog of US$51-billion, up 70-per-cent-plus year-over-year, which extends beyond 2026,” she said. “CAT guided to 2026 sales/revenue growth at the high-end of its 5-7-per-cent target CAGR (2024-2030) and positive price realization of 200 basis points. The company also noted strong utilization of an aging global mining fleet and highlighted that it provides an invisible layer of the tech stack needed to support AI, i.e., critical minerals, reliable power, and physical infrastructure. We have increased our valuation multiples for all 3 companies and rolled forward our target price horizon by one quarter to be based on 2027.”
Ms. Radbourne outlined four reasons why she’s optimistic about the trajectory of industry. They are:
“1) Strong new equipment sales (2021-2025E) provide visibility to a future product support; 2) there is a long growth runway in power, related to data centers (Canada is behind), dist’d power, and natural gas as a transition fuel; 3) commodity prices are very strong, including copper (Finning) and gold (Toromont); and 4) the Canadian federal government’s impetus to expedite large infrastructure projects is positive.”
She also noted valuation multiples are “pushing higher because the Street does not have sufficient clarity on the timing/magnitude of future infrastructure upside to reflect it in estimates.”
With that view, Ms. Radbourne made adjustments to the three stocks in the space:
* Finning International Inc. (FTT-T, “buy”) to $100 from $88. The average is $88.67.
Analyst: “We have trimmed our Q4/25 EPS estimate for Finning to $1.05 vs. $1.10 previously, to reflect higher stock-based compensation (the share-price was up 15 per cent in Q4/25) and to better recognize that Q3/25 EBIT in Canada included an unusually high JV earnings contribution of $6-million. We have also increased our valuation multiple to 18.5 times vs. 17.0 times. Our revised estimate is 2 per cent below consensus of $1.07.”
* Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T, “buy”) to $195 from $180. Average: $180.50.
Analyst: “Our Q4/25 EPS estimate for Toromont is unchanged at $1.83, which is 4 per cent below consensus of $1.90. Maybe we are too conservative, but consensus could be anchored on an unusually strong Q4/24. We have increased our valuation multiple to 26.5 times vs. 25.0 times.”
* Wajax Corp. (WJX-T, “hold”) to $28 from $25. Average: $29.
Analyst: “We have slightly reduced our Q4/25 estimate for Wajax to $0.70, from $0.72, but remain 4 per cent above consensus. Wajax is lapping a particularly weak quarter where efforts to adjust inventory levels resulted in equipment sales at meaningfully lower margins, and more recent margin improvement driven by internal initiatives could result in a possible upside surprise. We have increased our valuation multiple to 8.0 times from 7.5 times.”
Precious metals equity analysts at National Bank Financial raised their commodity price deck ahead of fourth-quarter earnings season as they continue to see “a favorable market backdrop for gold and silver through 2026 despite recent volatility, as support from key drivers remains intact including rising levels of sovereign debt, persistent inflation, USD volatility, buoyant long-term yields, continued outlook for rate cuts and strong physical demand from Central Banks/stablecoins.”
“Further, we expect recent Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh to moderate vs. prior hawkish tendencies,” they added. “Also benefitting silver is the ongoing, multi-year deficit prompting buyers to pay more for available supply, strategic export controls in China, robust demand for solar panels and high-value or niche applications, including AI data centres, defense, medical nanotechnology.
Citing their “favourable sentiment and the fluid price environment,” the analysts raised their gold price forecast for 2025 and 2026 to US$5,200 per ounce from US$4,500 with their silver projection moving to US$100 per ounce from US$60. They also increased their long-term prices to US$3,200 and US$42, respectively, from US$3,000 and US$37.50.
“We plugged in Q4/25 metal and FX prices, and updated our estimates across our precious metals universe ahead of the Q4/25 reporting period,“ they noted. ”Consensus ranges have largely narrowed for names that have reported Q4/25 ops; while those that have not reported include ABX, AEM, BTO, CG, ELE, FNV, K, MTA, MUX, NEM, OGC, SSRM and WPM. Overall with respect to Q4/25 reporting, based on material differences between our estimates and street consensus, pending catalysts or analyst views, we are: constructive on ARTG and IMG and cautious on FVI and WDO.
“2026 guidance remains primary driver of sentiment for select names. For companies that have reported guidance, we see emerging trends of higher costs y/y after baking in inflation, higher profit sharing, and royalty payments, with capex and exploration budgets also higher y/y to take advantage of stronger balance sheets, and elevated ROI on projects and drilling. Companys that have not reported 2026 guidance include AAUC, ABX, AEM, AGI, BTO, CG, DPM, ELE, FNV, GROY, K, MTA, MUX, NEM, OGC, OR, RGLD, SSRM, TFPM and WPM. Overall with respect to 2026 guidance, we are: constructive on ABX with Loulo-Gounkoto ramping up production and possibly being included in guidance; DPM with expectations for Vares Au/Ag production levels above tech report mine plan, offsetting y/y declines at Ada Tepe and Bulgarian levies in Q4/25; GROY post the Pedra Blanca/ Borborema’s addition to cash flowing assets; and cautious on BTO given Fekola regional permitting remains pending, and Goose ramp-up in progress.”
The analysts made a pair of rating revision alongside their changes:
* Mohamed Sidibé moved Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T) to “tender” from “outperform” with a $44 target, matching the average and up from $41 previously, to reflect its acquisition by China’s Zijin Gold International Co. in a $5.5-billion deal.
* Don DeMarco lowered Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (WDO-T) to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a $28 target, down from $31 and below the $28.40 average, “after adopting 2026 guidance with lower-than-expected production at Kiena.”
The analysts also raised their targets for the majority of the stocks in their coverage universe, led by the silver miners, which as a group are revised 40 per cent or more higher, with First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG-T, “outperform”) seeing the largest increase ($52 from $29 versus a $27.94 average) due to “strong revisions incorporating 2026 guidance.”
For senior producers, their changes are:
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T, “outperform”) to $320 from $300. Average: $302.89.Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX-T, “outperform”) to $82.50 from $77.50. Average: $72.51.Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV-T, “outperform”) to $93 from $88. Average: $89.02.Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T, “outperform”) to $60 from $52.50. Average: $51.83.Newmont Corp. (NEM-N, “outperform”) to US$140 from US$120. Average: US$134.57.
The analysts also laid out their “top picks” moving forward.
On a “valuation/FCF basis,” they are: Barrick, Elemental Royalty Corp. (ELE-X, “outperform” and $37.50 from $30), IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG-T, “outperform” and $35 from $34) and Torex Gold Corp. (TXG-T, “outperform” and $88 from $85).
On a “growth outlook,” they are: Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T, “outperform” and $75), Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR-T, “outperform” and $29 from $20), Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T, “outperform” and $25) and G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T, “outperform” and $60 from $45).
Following an “incredible rally,” Raymond James analyst Michael Barth lowered his recommendation for Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T) to “outperform” from “strong buy” on Wednesday.
“We upgraded EFX to Strong Buy in early December and simultaneously added it to our Analysts’ Best Picks for 2026 list on the view that secular tailwinds in the core business, emerging opportunities in the power vertical, and other optionality was being underappreciated by investors,“ he said. ”The stock has since returned 30 per cent in less than 2 months, outperforming the rest of our OFS coverage by 21 per cent, XEG by 24 per cent, and the SPTSX by 31 per cent.
“Given the impressive absolute and relative performance, we are downgrading EFX to Outperform. While we still see a reasonable valuation and multiple potential near-term catalysts, the stock is no longer in “pound the table” territory. Our target and estimates remain unchanged, although we note that our current estimates include no contribution from any wins in the power space or upside from a successful resolution on the Kurdistan project.”
Mr. Barth now thinks the Calgary-based company’s share price “reflects a conservative value for the base business” and thinks there is “plenty of upside optionality still exists” but investors “get that optionality for free.”
“On our estimates, we believe that the base business is worth $26/share (our DCF, which includes no value for power, is spitting out $26/share),” he explained. “That happens to be consistent with where the stock is trading today, which suggests that the base business is ‘fully priced’. To be fair, our model/estimates lean conservative with little in the way of AMS [After-Market Services] growth, only moderate growth in EI from U.S. contract compression additions, flat ES [Engineered Systems] bookings from here, modest ES margin compression over the next couple of years, and no additional reductions in G&A intensity. We can fairly easily paint a picture where EFX outperforms this set of assumptions. We’re hesitant to change estimates just yet, but note that EFX is currently wrapping up a strategic review and is likely to host an IR Day in the spring; it’s totally possible that more clarity on strategic direction and the path forward causes us to review our estimates. In the meantime, we think investors can comfortably own EFX at $26/share without having to make any stretch assumptions for growth.
“While the base business is arguably fairly valued (with some upside risk), we still think investors get the power optionality for free; assuming 5 years of power-related bookings upside in the ES business, we think that opportunity could be worth an extra $4/share. We don’t expect much in the way of tangible progress with 4Q25 results, but think it’s reasonably likely ES bookings start to reflect progress here in 1Q26. Similarly, a successful resolution on the Kurdistan arbitration could be worth nearly $2/share of additional value. Together that’s $6/share of potential upside to our target (23-per-cent upside) that could materialize in less than 12 months, ignoring any additional upside from AMS growth, improving G&A intensity, or better-for-longer ES margins.”
He maintained a target of $26 per share, which exceeds the $25.01 average on the Street.
In a research report released before the bell titled All dressed for winter, still lacing the boots, Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho says Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T) should benefit from colder weather in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and so far in 2026,“ however he warns ”recent operational changes may delay this impact.”
“We await new 2026 guidance and refreshed Superior Delivers and buyback expectations, as well as SPB’s strategy to repay US$260-million in Brookfield prefs by mid-2027, if the share price does not warrant conversion,” he added.
Ahead of the Feb. 19 release of the Toronto-based company’s financial report, Mr. Ho is now projecting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of US$163.4-million, up from US$162-million previously, which is narrowly higher than the consensus estimate of US$161.3-million and up from US$159.2-million in the same period in fiscal 2024.
“While weather was favourable for both the U.S. (14 per cent colder than five-year average) and Canada (5 per cent), SPB may not fully capture the benefit of stronger demand in 4Q due to ongoing Superior Delivers–related workforce and fleet rationalization,“ he said. ”That said, unfulfilled orders are likely to shift into 1Q26. We left our 4QE EBITDA largely unchanged at US$163.4-million, which implies US$465-milliom in 2025, matching the guidance mid-point of US$465-million (up 2 per cent year-over-year).”
“We await new 2026 guidance and refreshed Superior Delivers and buyback expectations, as well as SPB’s strategy to repay US$260-million in Brookfield prefs by mid-2027, if the share price does not warrant conversion.”
Citing “increased uncertainty,” Mr. Ho lowered his valuation multiple and target for Superior Plus shares to $8.75 from $9, but, pointing to a 24-per-cent potential return, he reiterated his “buy” rating. The average on the Street is $9.50.
“Our investment thesis: (1) SPB is a leading energy distributor with recession-resistant attributes; (2) opportunities to improve the propane business through Superior Delivers, and (3) largely immune from tariffs/geopolitical noise,” he said.
TD Cowen analyst Tim James thinks Transat AT Inc.’s (TRZ-T) labour dispute with its pilots in December will have a “minimal impact” on the Montreal-based company’s first-quarter of fiscal 2026, expecting those results to “begin to demonstrate normalized margins based on resilient demand, return of grounded aircraft, ratified pilot contract, and Elevation initiative.”
“We forecast Q1/F26 revenue up 3.6 per cent year-over-year to $859-million (consensus: $853-million) on 1.4-per-cent yield and 1.7-per-cent traffic,” he said. “We believe resilient demand and return of a portion of grounded aircraft supports traffic and capacity (up 3.0 per cent) forecast. We forecast adj. EBITDA of $33.6-million (3.9-per-cent margin; cons: $20.8-million) on 150 bps of margin expansion.
“Conference call focus on booking trends and commentary on path to being free cash flow positive in F2026 (TD Cowen: negative). Our target multiple (3.5 times) reflects comparable valuations, travel demand outlook, competitive pressure, and increased financial risk for TRZ.”
In a note previewing quarterly results for Canadian small-cap passenger air transportation companies, Mr. James said he see Transat possessing more upside than peer Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T) “due to valuation and our forecast for earnings growth based on demand outlook, return of grounded aircraft, recent debt restructuring, and cost-saving and revenue optimization initiatives.”
He reduced his Street-high target for Transat shares to $5 from $5.50, remaining above the $3.30 average, with a “buy” rating.
Mr. James’s target for Chorus remains $31, exceeding the $29 average, also with a “buy” recommendation.
“We believe Chorus provides attractive 12-month upside, but expect the return could require additional patience as the market gradually attributes greater value to Voyageur, and the leveling out of CPA earnings declines comes into view for 2026/2027. We believe its capital returns (buybacks & dividends) should award investors in the interim,” he said.
While it was not “immune to the risk-off tone that weighed on data, tech, and professional services stocks,” Raymond James analyst Frederic Bastien thinks Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q, CIGI-T) “took a pivotal step” on Tuesday with its US$700-million acquisition of Ayesa Engineering, its largest-ever transaction.
“CIGI’s 6-per-cent slide notably brings the stock’s correction to 13 per cent since we flagged it as a high-conviction idea on Jan. 20 (versus a 1-per-cent gain for the S&P 500). We are doubling down today, upgrading the shares to Strong Buy [from an ‘outperform’ rating],” he added.
Mr. Bastien thinks the deal for Ayesa, a engineering and project management firm headquartered in Seville, Spain, as “fair valuation for a high-performing platform” and believe its “benefits can’t be understated.”
“Assuming a net-to-gross revenue ratio of approximately 80 per cent and high-teen EBITDA margins consistent with Ayesa’s consulting-heavy profile, we derive an acquisition multiple of 12.5 times TTM [trailing 12-month] EBITDA (and 11.0 times FTM [forward 12-month] EBITDA), which we view as reasonable given the company’s scale and strategic relevance,” he explained. “Our expectations are for Colliers to fund the transaction with debt, making it accretive to adjusted EPS to the tune of 5 per cent. The Ayesa deal will temporarily push CIGI’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio north of 3 times, but an improving CRE cycle and the capital-light nature of the combined business should allow for quick deleveraging.”
“This strategic step expands CIGIs’ engineering and project management platform, adds gravitas in transportation, water, buildings and energy verticals, and delivers greater scale and opportunity for clients and professionals. Just as importantly to us, Ayesa’s culture of excellence and innovation aligns well with Colliers, supporting sustained growth and value creation. Over time and with patience, Europe should offer ample opportunities for complementary tuck-under acquisitions (per Englobe’s playbook).”.
Expecting no surprises from its fourth-quarter 2025 financial release on Feb. 13, Mr. Bastien raised his Colliers target to a Street-high of US$200 from US$195. The average is US$169.94
Elsewhere, Stifel’s Daryl Young increased his target for shares to US$195 from US$190, keeping a “buy” rating.
“We estimate that the transaction is accretive to our 2026/2027 EPS estimates by 4.5 per cent/6.7 per cent, respectively,” said Mr. Young. “Overall, we like the deal; it brings accretive margins, is synergistic with the EMEA project management platform, and provides immediate scale to complete tuck-in acquisitions (the business has an existing pipeline). Moreover, we understand that Ayesa has been reporting robust organic growth and has a healthy backlog that could support double-digit revenue growth in 2026/2027 (we conservatively model mid- to high-single-digits). At 12.5 times LTM [last 12-month] EBITDA (11.0 times FWD), the deal is consistent with pricing for scaled engineering assets (and CIGI’s acquisition of Englobe). Pro-forma leverage does tick-higher to 2.6 times, but we expect that to fall to the low 2.0s by late 2026 and do not anticipate any equity requirements.”
In other analyst actions:
* In a report on Canadian software stocks following Tuesday’s selloff, Scotia Capital’s Kevin Krishnaratne made a series of target price reductions: Healwell AI Inc. (AIDX-T, “sector outperform”) to $2 from $2.50; Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX-Q/DSG-T, “sector outperform”) to US$95 from US$115; Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T, “sector outperform”) to $200 from $240; Vitalhub Inc. (VHI-T, “sector outperform”) to $12 from $15 and Well Health Technologies Corp. (WELL-T, “sector outperform”) to $6.50 from $7. The averages are $3.61, US$113.30, $220.40, $14.25 and $7.20, respectively.
“Software stocks have had a rough start in 2026, with the S&P TSX Capped Info Tech Index down 20 per cent year-to-date and BVP Cloud Index down 19.5 per cent. Yesterday’s sell-off was induced by fears related to Anthropic’s Claude Cowork’s potential to disrupt SaaS models. While recent SW results have not necessarily shown any signs of disruption, we don’t know what changes the “AI Eats Software” narrative. With this as the backdrop, we see select opportunities for outperformance within the SW category. We favour companies possessing strong platforms and workflow knowledge, and those who have articulated paths for AI monetization (directly or indirectly) that could drive upside to F26 estimates. Our favorite names are KXS and SHOP. KXS has been one of the most AI-ready firms in our coverage, with AI/ML core to its workflows and recent Agentic initiatives (with pricing info soon to come) supporting its evolution from Supply Chain Planning to a Supply Chain Orchestration platform. SHOP enjoys strong “network effects” we don’t see being disrupted anytime soon, with Payments driving its model (consumer sentiment strong), while it leads the industry in Agentic Commerce, which could be additive to Retail (and drive upside to GMV),” said Mr. Krishnaratne.
* Raymond James’ Craig Stanley became the first analyst to initiate coverage of Pacifica Silver Corp. (PSIL-CN), a Vancouver-based company focused on the Claudia Project in Mexico, giving it an “outperform” rating and $2.85 target.
“We believe PSIL offers attractive value at a market cap of $100-million and $28-million in cash, given the large land position, historical workings, numerous high-grade drill intercepts, a fully funded 2026 drill program, and geological potential in an under-explored region just three hours from a major city,” said Mr. Stanley.
“In our opinion, it is too early to develop a mine model and instead estimate a resource potential multiplied by a per ounce value.”
* Believing “favourable demographic trends and supply constraints support long-term cash flow growth,“ Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild initiated coverage of Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T) with a “buy” rating and $24.50 target. The average on the Street is $23.10.
“Sienna offers investors the opportunity to gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of seniors housing properties that should deliver healthy cash flow growth for the foreseeable future: • Demographic trends are driving growing demand while new supply is limited. • Occupancy has been improving and leading to upward pressure on rental rates. • The management team is experienced in operating seniors housing properties, redeveloping older properties, and completing accretive acquisitions. • The current valuation is attractive; particularly when compared to larger US peers,” he explained.
“Canaccord Genuity believes that Sienna trades at an attractive valuation relative to US and Canadian peers when viewed on various valuation metrics. While the cash flow multiple is above the long-term average, we believe it is justified due to the strengthening in fundamentals for seniors housing properties, which is driving greater cash flow growth.”
* Following Tuesday night’s quarterly release, TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof raised his Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T) target to $81 from $74 with a “buy” rating, while BMO’s Randy Ollenberger hiked his target to $85 from $69 with an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $69.14.
“Very strong Jan 5th operations update left little room for material, positive surprises. Q4 CFPS beat smaller than in recent q’s but shouldn’t lose sight of just how strong Q4 was. Outlook commentary likely back-pocketed for Mar. 31 Investor Day. We could see new 3-yr plan/targets, select capacity re-rates, $5.5-6-billion capex over next several yrs, and improved long-term visibility,” he said.
* After its Nasdaq-listed shares dropped 15.7 per cent on Tuesday on fears that AI could threaten its core legal division, Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige lowered his Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-Q, TRI-T) target to US$130 from US$174 with a “buy” rating. The average is currently US$173.24.
“From our standpoint, we very much doubt that these offerings impact TRI’s legal products to law firms or even the in-house counsel of larger corporations,” said Mr. Galappatthige. “We see significant distance between Anthropic’s capabilities and TRI’s extensive legal platform. In particular, we note that the breadth of sources that TRI draws content from (circa 3,500) and intensive annotations made on inputted documents (with 1,500 attorneys). Moreover, we note the importance of accuracy in the legal profession, and consequences for errors (or AI hallucinations). Put simply, turning off Westlaw for Claude’s legal plug-ins would be tantamount to an investment manager discontinuing Bloomberg or FactSet for the same product. … An argument could be made around the pressure on TRI’s sales to small law firms, but following recent divestitures, we suspect the exposure here is closer to 15%. Westlaw remains essential for courts, regulators, and law firms because it provides trusted, cited, and annotated primary law – something AI-native tools currently cannot match in terms of depth, provenance, or reliability.”
* Raymond James’ Daryl Swetlishoff moved his Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF-T) target to $12 from $10 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $15.50.
“Trees earnings season begins February 10th, with our estimates suggesting large lumber producers are well positioned for earnings beats amid an overly bearish consensus stance,” said Mr. Swetlishoff. “Against this backdrop, we highlight Interfor is set to beat by 26 per cent with our Canfor estimate 12 per cent ahead of the Street. In conjunction with our recent note — The Great Wood Reset – we have previously upgraded lumber levered value plays Canfor and Interfor from Outperform to Strong Buy (& feature them on ourAnalyst Current Favoriteslist) with West Fraser going to Outperform from Market Perform. Going into the print, while earning beats are welcome, we expect the market to focus on positive guidance (esp Southern Yellow Pine lumber strength) as 1Q26 results are on track to return companies to FCF-positive territory. Across our diversified industrials coverage, we expect in-line quarters for Strong Buy rated ADENTRA and Doman Building Materials, while we are modestly below the Street on Stella-Jones. Truss manufacturer Atlas Engineered Products is also poised for a miss; however, we reaffirm our view that each of these names show strong potential for M&A tailwinds.”
* In response to Monday’s announcement of a a further expansion at its AZUR SPACE Solar Power GmbH facility, National Bank Financial’s Baltej Sidhu raised his 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) target to $33 from $30, keeping an “outperform” rating, while Canaccord Genuity’s Yuri Lynk increased his target to $31 from $26 with a “buy” rating. The average is $30.
“5N Plus is a key global supplier of ultra-high purity (99.999% or five-nines purity) advanced materials and specialty semiconductors used in renewable energy, space solar, and defense applications. The company enjoys a wide competitive moat as one of only a handful of companies in the Western world able to source and process cadmium, tellurium, and germanium, among other minor metals, outside China. With a strong balance sheet, management is looking to expand and compliment 5N Plus’ product portfolio via acquisition. Any associated accretion would be additive to our forecasts,” said Mr. Lynk after meetings with its management team.