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Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we’re wondering if we can still climb hills and get muddy at preseason testing next week, even though it’s public. Last time was so fun!

We’ve got three teams (and one rhetorical flourish) under our microscope today. I’m Patrick, and Luke Smith will be along shortly. Let’s get to it.

Turn That Frown … : Wolff’s guide to managing expectations

I think Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has developed an advanced system of strategic pessimism.

Mercedes enters the 2026 season with new regulations, a new engine formula (historically their sweet spot) and a new driver lineup after Lewis Hamilton’s departure to Ferrari. Early testing suggests they might finally be back on top.

According to Wolff’s comments this week, he is having absolutely none of it. In 2022, Mercedes’ radical “zeropod” design was supposed to be a terrific aerodynamic innovation. Instead, it was so fundamentally flawed that Mercedes spent four years retooling while Red Bull and McLaren dominated. No wonder Wolff refused to play into the hype around his 2026 team this week.

Here’s what we can learn from his approach:

1. Redefine success downward: Your car just completed 500 laps at Barcelona, 60 more than any competitor. Wolff’s response was, “At least it doesn’t look like a turd.”

Notice: Wolff doesn’t say the car looks good. He’s merely confirmed it has surpassed the baseline of fecal matter. This is expert-level expectation management.

2. Treat optimism like a virus: Lando Norris, who played padel with Russell recently, has said the Mercedes driver is “giddy” about the upcoming season. Oddsmakers have made him the championship favorite.

The healthy public response: Quarantine. Even Russell has learned the Mercedes way of publicly demurring. His response to becoming the betting favorite was, “I didn’t feel anything.” This is a team that has built immunity to false hope through exposure therapy — specifically, exposure to skinny sidepods that couldn’t win races.

3. Assume you’re wrong: “I’ve too often set my expectations in the wrong place,” Wolff admits. And then another heart breaks. Another head aches. I’m so much older than I can take, etc.

The solution: Downplay. Is your car fast? Probably just because Barcelona was cold. Are rivals complaining about your engine loophole? Well …

4. Assume your rivals are wrong-er: When the media mentioned competitors raised concerns about Mercedes finding an engine loophole worth up to 0.4 seconds per lap, suddenly, humble Toto disappeared. His response: “Get your s— together.” There’s that confidence!

The lesson: Don’t really have a lesson here. Just amazed it only took us about a month into 2026 for someone in F1 to tell other people in F1 to get their “s— together.”

5. Refuse to believe until race day: “I won’t believe we have a shot until I see it in the results at Melbourne,” Wolff says. Not Bahrain testing. Not qualifying. Actual race results on March 8. And, you know what? Fair.

The philosophy: Can’t buy into the hype if we don’t look at it.

The full story on Mercedes’ preseason showing and that engine drama is here and here.

One-and-Done?: Not if Norris can help it

Two months ago (yes, only two months ago), Lando Norris celebrated his first F1 world championship by partying until sunrise and ending the night at McDonald’s.

This week, he’s back at McLaren’s headquarters preparing to defend that title, carrying the No. 1 on his car for the first time since Max Verstappen owned it in 2022. But something’s different about Norris heading into 2026: He’s found peace with the possibility that he might never win another championship. Could that paradox make him more dangerous?

“If I never do, I’m still happy. I still achieved one,” Norris told reporters this week, a sentiment that echoes Verstappen’s own words after his 2021 title win. As Luke writes, it’s not complacency, but a baseline of contentment that could free him from the pressure that complicated his rocky first half of 2025.

Read the full story on how the hunter became the hunted here. Hey, speaking of Luke, let’s go talk to him in the paddock.

Inside the Paddock with Luke Smith: F1’s Super Bowl moment

I’ll be watching Sunday’s Super Bowl with a tinge of disappointment. My team, the Los Angeles Rams, was so close yet so far from making it, but at least Matthew Stafford (rightly) was named the MVP.

But what’s the Super Bowl got to do with F1? Well, this year, quite a bit.

Cadillac will be using an advertisement slot during the game to reveal the livery for its first F1 car in 2026, staking its claim to be America’s team on the biggest stage imaginable.

Everything Cadillac has done so far has been big and about making a statement. The whispers I’ve heard about the ad suggest this will be no different, going big at a moment when the eyes of America — and much of the world — will be watching.

It’s good news for Cadillac, and for F1 as a whole. Being part of the Super Bowl, even in this small way, would’ve been unimaginable a decade ago. So many doors have opened since then, but this play by Cadillac feels like another step toward entrenching itself into American sports culture.

(Patrick here again, to say thanks Luke. As a Broncos fan, I also will be watching the Super Bowl in mourning. Let’s … let’s talk about something else.)

Just One Edit: Williams’ murky horizon

Williams sacrificed its 2025 season to get a head start on 2026’s new regulations. The bet seemed to pay off, finishing fifth in the constructors’ championship with two podiums. Now, though? Things are … murky. (The correct use of the term!)

Williams missed the crucial Barcelona preseason test because its new car wasn’t ready. Team principal James Vowles now admits there’s “a murky horizon,” with some parts of the car “absolutely championship level” while others “have a long way to go.”

Read why Williams’ horizon remains unclear here.

A note on “murky horizons”: The entire point of a horizon is that you can see it. It’s literally where the sky meets the earth — the clearest visual line nature provides. Water can be murky. Situations can be murky. But a horizon? That’s just called fog, and if you’re navigating by a foggy horizon, you’ve got bigger problems than finishing fifth in the constructors’ championship.

We appreciate Vowles’ commitment to inventing new ways to say ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ out loud, but analogies must be bound by the same physical constraints as the rest of us. I have had too much coffee this morning, and am sorry.

Outside the Points

🏎️ F1 isn’t an Olympic sport, but that didn’t keep me from enjoying learning about drivers who have competed at the Winter Olympics.

📝 And, finally, don’t forget about testing in Bahrain next week, and the week after (Feb. 11-13 and Feb. 18-20). We’ll let you know in the next edition how to watch those and follow along our analysis on the ground.

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