Comparison is the theft of joy.
Many were disappointed with the lack of fireworks at this year’s trade deadline, but when you’re one year removed from the atomic bomb of breaking news, Luka Doncic will overshadow all deadlines for years to come.
Now that February 5th has passed, it’s fair to say there was no shortage of dealmaking.
27-of-30 NBA teams were involved in a transaction.
This deadline was strangely unique with the informal introduction of ‘pre-agency’.
With two of the biggest names moving in Anthony Davis and Jaren Jackson Jr., you’d think they teamed up with a championship contender, right?
Not this year.
Instead, two bottom-feeder teams in the Washington Wizards and Utah Jazz determined this was the time to go big game hunting.
While both lottery-bound teams traded future assets to acquire their superstars, they each have their 2026 first-round draft pick ahead of a potentially generational class.
The quality of this upcoming group is going to heavily influence win totals, tanking and games missed for the balance of the season.
With the exception of Cleveland acquiring James Harden, none of the Top 10 championship favourites did anything drastic to improve their odds.
Win totals for the contenders remain relatively consistent with pre-deadline odds.
All the opportunities come from the lottery teams.
Here are my two favourite win totals that I’d be examining post-deadline.
Milwaukee Bucks under 31.5 wins (-105)
With Giannis Antetokounmpo staying put, you might think to yourself that Milwaukee will stay afloat.
But given all the negotiations their front office went through, you have to assume this is a lost season in their eyes.
Even if the Greek Freak is passive-aggressively saying he wants to remain a Buck, there’s no winning for him or the organization this season.
Milwaukee’s championship odds have plummeted to 1000-to-1, joining 10 other teams FanDuel essentially says have no chance.
Those teams currently average out to 16.7 wins at the moment.
There’s only 30 or so games left.
The Bucks currently sit at 20 wins with 33 games to go.
If Giannis sits the rest of the year as the front office has hinted, there’s no chance Milwaukee finishes 12-21.
They’ve gone 5-14 over the games he’s missed this season (21-win pace).
Given that they still control their own draft pick for this loaded class, it’d be prudent for them to drop as far down as they can.
This roster isn’t built for another championship run this year or the next.
Time to reload.
Los Angeles Clippers under 38.5 wins (+106)
A lot of noise has been made about Oklahoma City’s never-ending treasure chest of draft picks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was traded to the Thunder seven years ago, yet a final residual of that transaction remains to be remitted.
The Clippers offered an unprotected 2026 first-rounder in that trade for Paul George and that asset is trending up post-deadline.
With James Harden and Ivica Zubac out the door, LA is clearly signalling a desire to re-tool for the future.
After coming out of the NBA Cup with the best record in the league through January 31st, LA is heading back in the opposite direction.
Averaging out their atrocious start and surprising resurgence, they find themselves at 23-27 (a 38-win pace).
Judging by their deadline choices, the value points towards their under.
Darius Garland is undoubtedly a better long-term asset than James Harden; credit to LA’s front office for grabbing an All-Star-calibre point guard 10 years younger.
What’s the problem, though? This nagging toe injury clearly isn’t going away.
It was never a good sign that Garland was inactive on Opening Night after having five months off to rehab.
Now, he’s dealing with another toe injury on the opposite foot, keeping him out for another 10 games.
This is clearly not a championship-contending roster in 2025-26, so if the front office were long-term focused, they’d be wise to give Garland the full period of rest required to get back to 100 percent.
The second transaction, trading away Zubac, is one that simply can’t be covered for.
The big man was an All-NBA candidate last year and will now be replaced by a 37-year-old vet in Brook Lopez or the 30th overall pick in this year’s draft, Yanic Konan Niederhauser.
Neither option will sufficiently replace Zubac.
While Canadian Bennedict Mathurin will have room to blossom in a starring offence role, I don’t think things will come together that quickly.
As good as Kawhi Leonard has been, I don’t trust his ability to remain on the court given his track record.
LA’s gone 4-9 in the games he’s missed this year. One injury to Leonard and this under is near guaranteed.