The ATP and WTA Tours are currently in full swing, as the women are playing a 1000-level event in Doha and the men are competing in 500-level tournaments in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires, and Dallas. With that in mind, we have a lot to cover over the next couple of days. I’ll be writing up my tennis best bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll post my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page on Sunday. That said, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Tuesday, February 10.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Anna Kalinsakya vs. Emma Navarro – Doha
Arthur Fils vs. Alex de Minaur – Rotterdam
Navarro is coming off a straight-set win over Tatjana Maria, but that’s a veteran that lacks weapons. Maria just likes to slice the ball all over the court, and Navarro has the athleticism to track those shots down and put them back in play. Navarro is also a better server and returner than Maria, so there really wasn’t much that the German was able to do to frustrate her. Well, Kalinskaya presents some problems. Kalinskaya just has very few holes in her game, and she possesses some big ball-striking ability. That said, Navarro is going to need to come up with some big shots throughout this one, and we haven’t seen much that suggests she can do that in 2026. Navarro is just 3-4 since the start of the year, and she has lost matches against Francesca Jones, Diana Shnaider, Magda Linette, and Hailey Baptiste. She’s just not playing very well at the moment, making it hard to imagine her beating Kalinskaya in straight sets.
I’m pairing the Kalinskaya play with de Minaur to beat Fils. I’m a big fan of Fils’ game. When things are clicking, he can be incredibly tough to beat. He’s also one of the few guys that really has a shot at putting an end to the Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner monopoly on Grand Slams. However, Fils just returned from a lengthy injury absence, and his play in Montpellier was a little inconsistent. He was able to beat Valentin Royer and Ugo Blanchet, but he got smoked by Felix Auger-Aliassime. That’s hard to ignore considering it was his one matchup with high-level competition. Well, de Minaur is a high-level opponent. And I actually believe the Australian is a tougher matchup for Fils, as he’s a wall along the baseline. He’s going to make Fils play a ton of long points, and I’m not sure the Frenchman has the cardio to do that right now. De Minaur is also an elite returner, so he’ll put Fils under serious pressure when the ball is on his racquet.
PARLAY: Kalinskaya +1.5 Sets & de Minaur ML (-164 – 1.5 units)
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Alex Michelsen – Dallas
Scheduled for 2:10 pm ET
Over the last 52 weeks, Dimitrov’s advanced statistics at TennisViz’s Courtside Advantage look really strong here. Dimitrov has a Performance Rating of 7.72 in non-majors in that span, while Michelsen is down at 7.09. Dimitrov also has a higher Conversion Score (69% vs. 66%), Steal Score (33% vs. 31%), Forehand Quality (7.9 vs. 6.7), and Backhand Quality (7.0 vs. 6.8), which tells a pretty nice story when looking at the baseline play. Dimitrov also has a better Serve Quality (8.0 vs. 7.7) and Return Quality (6.7 vs. 6.6).
There just hasn’t been much that Michelsen has done better than Dimitrov in the last year, but we’re getting a discount on the Bulgarian because of his injury-filled 2025 season. The fact that this match will be played in America is also a factor. But I just can’t turn down plus-money odds on a player that might be better than his opponent at absolutely everything, and I even like the slice-heavy backhand of Dimitrov here. Michelsen is a big player that isn’t going to want to get low for his shots, but he’s going to have to here. Also, Michelsen still has work to do when it comes to his transition game, and Dimitrov’s low-bouncing slice will occasionally get the American coming forward without his balance.
There’s just a lot Dimitrov can do with his superior point construction skills, and I trust the veteran to serve well throughout this one.
Bet: Dimitrov ML (+105)
Rafael Jodar vs. Denis Shapovalov – Dallas
Scheduled for 9:10 pm ET
Shapovalov is the defending champion in Dallas, meaning he’s under pressure to defend his title — and defend his points. The problem is that he’s just 1-3 since the start of 2026, and he has suffered straight-set losses against Raphael Collignon and Marin Cilic. That’s rather uninspiring considering Shapovalov’s raw talent, and it shows you that his game is all over the place right now.
Jodar should be able to take advantage of Shapovalov being out of form. The Spaniard has a massive serve, which should allow him to run through his service games indoors. He also hits with big, heavy topspin from the back of the court, so he can get the ball up on Shapovalov’s one-handed backhands. He can also change up angles on Shapovalov in general. That can lead to some errors from the Canadian, who can be very sloppy when he’s not playing his best tennis.
Bet: Jodar ML (-102 – 1.5 units)
2026 ATP/WTA Record: 115-117 (+26.17 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Tennis LinksÂ