Each week through the end of the regular season, we’ll check in on where I think the major individual awards races stand. This week, we’ll start with Rookie of the Year and figure out who our leader should be there.  

Here’s how the Awards Watch shakes out: Since 2019, I have been one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It’s an honor that I take very seriously, as I strive to select the players I believe are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like this analysis as a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and readers of The Athletic.

As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way first:

Yes, I watch the games.
Yes, I have looked at the numbers.
No, I don’t hate that player.
No, I don’t hate that team.
If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.
With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting into consideration.
Don’t forget the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.

Let’s get into it. (Odds and stats are entering Wednesday’s games.)

Rookie of the Year

Two honorable mentions: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans

3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+8000 to win)
2. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (+600 to win)
1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (-1000 to win)

No offense to Edgecombe or anybody else hoping to be in the mix, but there is no chance anybody is cracking into the top two spots outside of Knueppel and Flagg. Edgecombe would be a viable candidate in most other years, but let’s focus on Flagg and Knueppel.

Currently, the odds are heavily favoring the unquestioned No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Not for a second did any draft people try to get cute and start talking about picking Dylan Harper or Ace Bailey or Edgecombe or Knueppel at the top. It was Flagg all the way, even for a Mavericks team that didn’t need more forwards. But pre-draft questions about Knueppel’s game have essentially been scoffed at by his on-court play. 

All of the money has flooded toward Flagg in this awards race, but that doesn’t mean the votes will shake out the same way. Flagg is the presumed winner when I talk to people around the NBA (both working in it and covering it), but Knueppel has a lot of people pausing before they decide. Let’s break down how close this race might actually be:

Scoring: 20.4 points per game for Flagg | 18.9 points per game for Knueppel. Advantage: Flagg.
Rebounds: 6.6 per game for Flagg | 5.5 per game for Knueppel. Advantage: Flagg.
Assists: 4.1 per game for Flagg | 3.5 per game for Knueppel. Advantage: Flagg.
Steals: 1.2 per game for Flagg | 0.7 per game for Knueppel. Advantage: Flagg.
Blocks: 0.8 per game for Flagg | 0.2 per game for Knueppel. Advantage: Flagg.
Turnovers: 2.2 per game for Flagg | 2.2 per game for Knueppel. Advantage: None.
Games and minutes played: 49 games, 34.1 minutes per game for Flagg | 52 games, 32.2 minutes per game for Flagg.
Field goal percentage: 48.2 percent for Flagg | 48.5 percent for Knueppel. Advantage: Knueppel.
3-point percentage: 30.2 percent for Flagg | 42.8 percent for Knueppel. Advantage: Knueppel.
Free-throw percentage: 80.4 percent for Flagg | 89.9 percent for Knueppel. Advantage: Knueppel.
Impact on the floor: minus-4.1 points per 100 possessions with Flagg | minus-0.6 points per 100 possessions with Knueppel. Advantage: Knueppel

The impact-on-the-floor metric has so much noise in it, and you have to take it with a giant grain of salt. Also, Knueppel takes more than twice as many 3-pointers as Flagg, but Flagg attempts nearly two more free throws per game. That stuff should be factored into the raw numbers, and Knueppel has a higher turnover rate than Flagg. As you can see, though, Knueppel’s numbers put up a very interesting fight overall. And while team success has rarely factored into Rookie of the Year, it might end up becoming a tiebreaker for anybody who is torn. The Hornets have surged ahead, sitting 25-29 and 10th in the Eastern Conference. The Mavericks, having gone through plenty of self-inflicted turmoil, are just 19-34, falling in the standings and sitting 12th in the West.

All of the categories are pretty close. Flagg has the bigger name recognition, obviously. But Knueppel is surging at a good time with his team. If the Mavs keep plummeting and the Hornets continue to climb with Knueppel’s help, we may see a pretty split vote in April, no matter what the betting odds say today.

MVP

On-track to be ineligible: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (missed 16 games) | Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (missed 14 games) | Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors (missed 15)
Ineligible: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (missed more than 17 games)
Five honorable mentions: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers | Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks

5. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs (no betting odds, previously honorable mention)
4. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (+4000 to win)
3. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (+1600 to win)

I find it fascinating that Wembanyama is not on the board for MVP, but he’s on the board for Defensive Player of the Year. Both awards adhere to the 65-game rule, and while he has missed 14 games, he’s been very healthy as of late, and he’s playing out of his mind. As you’ll see below, the betting odds favor him for Defensive Player of the Year. The Spurs are second in the West. Wemby is averaging 24.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.7 blocks in 28.9 minutes with a 62.5 percent true shooting. Kevin Durant is even on the board at +100000 odds! Wemby doesn’t make it into the mix? I find that very strange.

2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+300 to win)
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-210 to win)

The odds have closed here a bit with the top two candidates for the award. Last week, I wrote about how the return of Jokić put him back on the betting board, and he had closed a dramatic gap. Jokić has played every game since returning (he can only miss one more game this season and remain eligible), and Gilgeous-Alexander is missing some time with an abdominal injury. He’s missed four consecutive games and will sit through the All-Star break. That’s when he’ll be re-evaluated. Jokić has had the more impressive season on the court when he’s played, but he missed so much time with that knee injury. It felt like even a return to eligibility wouldn’t put him back in the favorite position. There was a 14-game difference between him and Gilgeous-Alexander. Now, it’s down to a 10-game difference. That might still be too many games for Jokić’s amazing play to overcome, especially with Gilgeous-Alexander being no joke on the court himself. But the gap is narrowing, and the betting odds are reflecting that.

Defensive Player of the Year

On-track to be ineligible: Wembanyama | Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers (missed 13 games)
Ineligible: Anthony Davis, Washington Wizards (missed more than 17 games)
Two honorable mentions: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors | Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets

3. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (+1600 to win, previously second)
2. Chet Holmgren, Thunder (+250 to win, previously third)
1. Wembanyama, Spurs (-250 to win)

Now that Wembanyama is back and will likely qualify under the 65-game rule (knock on wood), we’re only going to see this gap widen between the Spurs star and Holmgren. Actually, that gulf will grow between Wembanyama and anybody who could find their way into second place. Gobert is having an excellent defensive season, and the betting odds make him look borderline irrelevant in the discussion. Anybody qualifying for honorable mention won’t come close either. Betting odds don’t just outright reflect how the voters will actually vote. Wembanyama has to continue to deliver on that end of the court, but he’s playing incredible defense. It wouldn’t shock me if a month from now, we’re looking at his odds being around -1000 to win the award.

Sixth Man of the Year

Two honorable mentions: Collin Gillespie, Phoenix Suns | Ajay Mitchell, Thunder

3. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat (+500 to win, previously honorable mention)
2. Naz Reid, Timberwolves (+175 to win, previously first)
1. Keldon Johnson, Spurs (+300, previously third)

A pretty cold start to February knocks Reid out of the top spot. And Johnson continues to play consistent basketball. He essentially plays like a bruising forward for the Spurs, and even though the 3-point shot isn’t falling as it did earlier in the season, he’s been about as consistent as it comes at making shots and grabbing boards in his time on the court. Mitchell’s injury knocks him out of the top three this week, and he has been one of my favorites to win the award most of the season. Jaquez takes his place in the top three, and he’s been so good for Miami. He’s bounced back perfectly from his poor sophomore showing. He’s had a tough start to February, as well, but his play all season long has him heavily in the running. 

Keldon Johnson puts home an easy two points against Houston’s Reed Sheppard. (Thomas Shea / Imagn Images)

Coach of the Year

Two honorable mentions: Jordan Ott, Suns | Joe Mazzulla, Celtics

3. J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons (-135 to win, previously honorable mention)
2. Charles Lee, Hornets (+1600 to win, previously honorable mention)
1. Mitch Johnson, Spurs (+900 to win)

Even though the Hornets had their nine-game winning streak snapped before they could tie the franchise record of 10, they’ve been one of the best stories in the NBA the last two months. So, how do we feel about Lee winning the award for a midseason turnaround? There are four coaches (Bickerstaff, Mazzulla, Ott and Johnson) with better odds to win, and Lee is tied with Denver’s David Adelman on the board. But I’m curious if the tanking problem boosts the narrative surrounding Lee’s candidacy when it gets down to voting time. The Hornets were awful and could have easily leaned into that for another high draft choice. Instead, they chose to take the entire season seriously to compete. They’re not far off from being in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup in the Play-In Tournament, and that could be enough for Lee to take the award.

Most Improved Player

Two honorable mentions: Anthony Black, Orlando Magic | Jalen Johnson, Hawks

3. Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks (+5000 to win, previously not mentioned)
2. Keyonte George, Utah Jazz (+900 to win)
1. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (-125 to win)

This ankle injury, plus the Jazz going to extreme and inventive tanking procedures, could end up knocking George out of the race for this award. He’s had a great season, but if it’s cut short and he doesn’t play many games the rest of the way, it probably won’t be enough to get him the award over newly minted All-Star Avdija. Someone I’ve been meaning to highlight and mention more in this space is Rollins in Milwaukee. There were some glimpses that maybe Rollins could stick around in the league last season, but this type of player did not really present itself. He scored in double-digits 15 times in his career before this season, all of them happening in the 2024-25 campaign. He broke 20 twice. Now, he’s averaging 16.9 points without losing any efficiency in his shooting percentages, and he’s failed to score in double figures only three times. He has to be in the mix.

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