The NBA trade deadline and All-Star festivities are behind us, with two more months of regular-season basketball still ahead, and several exciting storylines continuing to unfold.
Our NBA insiders put together a viewers guide just for you on the biggest questions, most exciting games to watch and award races to keep an eye on.
With the postseason picture shaping up in the coming weeks, which team will be the biggest challenger to the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder? Will we see another head-to-head race between Nikola Jokic andShai Gilgeous-Alexanderfor the MVP, or will a sleeper candidate take the award home this season?
Check out what our NBA insiders had to say and more, including what to watch at the bottom of the standings, with the NBA lottery set for May 10.
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Biggest questions | Games to watch
Biggest questions for the rest of the season
Who is the biggest threat to the Thunder in the postseason?
That depends on the health of the Denver Nuggets, who pushed the Thunder to seven games in the West semifinals last season. Like Oklahoma City, Denver has been hit hard by injuries throughout the season, but the Nuggets’ revamped front office has constructed the best supporting cast of Nikola Jokic’s career — if all the key contributors are available for the playoffs.
The Jackals and the rest of the San Antonio Spurs‘ fan base have the right to be perturbed that they aren’t the pick here, particularly considering that Victor Wembanyama and crew went 4-1 against the Thunder this season, including three wins in 12 days in December when Oklahoma City was relatively healthy. But a lack of playoff seasoning among this crew plants enough doubt in the Spurs’ ability to get out of the West gauntlet. — Tim MacMahon
Which team is the dark horse in the East?
It’s hard to say the Cleveland Cavaliers are the dark horse, given that the odds put them firmly at the top of the standings. So let’s assume the Cavs don’t qualify, especially with the James Harden acquisition getting folks excited. The Boston Celtics feel like the biggest wild card — even bigger than the Philadelphia 76ers. They’re second in the East without Jayson Tatum, who’s out with an Achilles injury he suffered in last year’s playoffs. If Tatum returns, which seems probable, that muddies up a surprisingly quality Eastern Conference.
It’s impossible to predict Tatum stepping into high-stakes competition easily, but the Celtics are so explosive from 3 and have the second-best offensive rating in the league behind Jaylen Brown (29.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists), so they might not need Tatum to be his best self. If Tatum can be a plus defender, rebounder and spot-up shooter, seeing Boston go through two playoff rounds isn’t out of the question. — Vincent Goodwill
Which player incentives should we pay attention to?
One player to watch is Zion Williamson, who is on pace to play at least 41 games for just the third time in six seasons. For Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans, it has become an important threshold to track. Clauses in the five-year, $197.2 million extension he signed in 2022 include criteria for games played and weight, which if not met could decrease his salary protection for future seasons. (For example, because Williamson missed more than 22 games in 2024-25, his $42.2 million salary for 2026-27 is non-guaranteed.)
The extension does allow Williamson’s salary for next season to become partially or fully guaranteed if four conditions are met:
More than 41 games played ($16,866,604)
More than 51 games played ($8,433,302)
More than 61 games played ($8,433,302)
Weight criteria ($8,433,302)
Having already played 40 games this season, Williamson will see his salary protection increase from $0 to $16,866,604 when the Pelicans host the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday. Meanwhile, as long as Williamson isn’t waived, his salary will become fully guaranteed on July 15. — Bobby Marks
Are we watching LeBron James‘ final months as a Los Angeles Laker?
James’ future is as murky as it has ever been, with the 41-year-old repeatedly stating that he is unsure if he intends to play next season — he’s a free agent this summer — or retire.
If James wants to play a 24th season, he would be welcomed back in L.A., sources told ESPN.
Lakers president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka declared before the start of this season that he would love it if James retired a Laker, and sources told ESPN that sentiment was meant to reflect a 2026 retirement or a 2027 retirement if James intends to extend his career.
If James were to return, his salary would be a major factor in determining exactly what kind of team L.A. could build.
James is being paid $52.6 million this season. Though he took a $2.7 million pay cut below the max on the last deal he signed with L.A., taking a dramatic pay cut to re-sign with the Lakers this summer would be a significant departure from how he has approached negotiations throughout his career. — Dave McMenamin
The biggest storyline to watch for the rest of the regular season is _____?
The tank race. There will be some standings jostling near the top of each conference, but it feels like the playoff participants and teams on the edge of contention are generally set. That drama tips in mid-April, but in the meantime there will be a microscope on the race to the bottom and the shameless strategy to grab a few extra ping-pong balls in May’s lottery.
Then there are the top prospects in this year’s draft class.Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson (plus a ton of other lottery hopefuls) are all on college teams that should make some noise in March. NBA fans scouting their next superstars will be watching with some extra interest. — Anthony Slater
Where do things stand between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks? The Bucks are going to try to save this 13-season marriage, but it’s unclear if there is anything they can do before his future (once again) becomes the biggest story of the summer. The Bucks will come out of the All-Star break with a 23-30 record and sitting in 12th place in the East.
Antetokounmpo has not played since Jan. 23 because of a strained right calf, but he is expected to play again in the next few weeks to try to drag Milwaukee into the postseason. Will he be successful?Will the Bucks pivot from postseason contention to improved draft position? Or are we witnessing Antetokounmpo’s last few months in Milwaukee? — Jamal Collier
The Cavaliers have won 10 of 11 — and added James Harden on the tail end of this impressive streak to replace the oft-injured Darius Garland. It’s a signal both financially and tangibly that the Cavaliers are going for it right now.
The failures of the playoffs the past two years still linger, so they’ve made significant changes, taking a huge gamble on Harden despite his history of postseason struggles. They currently sit at No. 4 in the East and are 1.5 games behind the No. 2 seed, which puts them in the crosshairs of the New York Knicks and Celtics in a potential second-round matchup.
We know what to expect from Donovan Mitchell, who’s quietly having his best season. If he and Harden find a way to click in the final two months, they can will this team to the No. 2 spot, thus raising playoff expectations one more time. Are they better prepared for it this time around, or are they setting up to be the same old Cavs? — Goodwill
Biggest games to watch at the top of the standings
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons (Feb. 27, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
It has been a charmed start to the James Harden era for the Cavaliers — they were on a three-game winning streak heading into the All-Star break — but it’s still early. The Cavaliers have several intriguing games in the weeks after the break, including a showdown with the East-leading Pistons, who are currently seven games ahead of them in the standings.
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (April 9, 7:30 p.m. ET)
At this point in the schedule, Jayson Tatum very well could be back in the fold for the Celtics after he participated in scrimmages with the Celtics’ G League affiliate last week. With these teams currently separated by half a game in the standings, they’ll be jockeying for top-four seeding in the Eastern Conference standings as the regular season winds down. This game could easily determine it.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (April 10, 9 p.m. ET)
Assuming both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are still eligible to win end-of-season awards, this game on the final Friday of the regular season will not only be a potential Western Conference finals preview but also a showdown for final arguments in the MVP race. As MacMahon pointed out, the Nuggets, when healthy, are the biggest contenders to dethrone the Thunder this season.
Biggest games to watch at the bottom of the standings
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz (Feb. 20, 7 p.m. ET)
Utah, which got in trouble for manipulating lineups last week to the tune of a $500,000 fine, will come out of the All-Star break facing Memphis, another team firmly in the tank race. This will be the first matchup between the two teams that traded Jaren Jackson Jr. before the deadline — ironically, another move seemingly designed to help the Grizzlies in the tank race.
New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings (April 3, 10 p.m. ET)
These two teams didn’t have designs on being in the tank race at the start of the season but are now firmly in the mix at the bottom of the standings. The Pelicans find themselves here simply because they struggled this season; however, they don’t own their first-round pick this year. The Kings, meanwhile, could be close to clinching a top-three lottery spot with more than two months still left in the regular season.
Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets (April 5, 3:30 ET)
A Sunday afternoon matinee in Brooklyn will see two of the teams that have spent this season fighting for lottery positioning square off with one week to go in the regular season. With the end of the season also determining playoff positions, this could wind up being a massively significant game to determine how the bottom teams in the league all line up.
— Tim Bontemps
MVP, ROY and more! Award races to watch
Most Valuable Player (MVP)
Leading candidate: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Due to both his own superlative statistics (32 PPG on 67% true shooting) and his importance to the best team in the West, SGA is a favorite to repeat as MVP. Oklahoma City scores 121.6 points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the court, versus just 110.0 without him. That’s the same as the difference between the top-ranked Nuggets and 29th-ranked Wizards.
In the hunt: Nikola Jokic
Right behind Gilgeous-Alexander is the player who finished as the runner-up last year. Jokic leads the league in both rebounds (12.3 per game) and assists (10.7), and he’s on pace to set the single-season records for player efficiency rating and box plus-minus. Only a lack of playing time — Jokic has already missed 16 games — holds back the three-time MVP. Fringier contenders behind Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic include Cade Cunningham and Jaylen Brown, who lead the top teams in the East but don’t have the individual statistics to match the two most recent MVP winners.
Rookie of the Year (ROY)
Leading candidate: Cooper Flagg
The No. 1 pick is favored to win this award, recovering from a slow start when playing out of position to average 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists at the All-Star break. Even though he suffered a foot sprain earlier this month, Flagg is still on the rise: Over his last six games before the break, he exploded for 32 PPG on 53% shooting.
In the hunt: Kon Knueppel
The No. 4 pick is within striking distance if Flagg falters down the stretch, averaging 18.9 PPG on historic efficiency for a rookie. With 3.4 3-pointers per game on 43% shooting from distance, Knueppel is on pace to shatter rookie records, and he’s a major contributor to a team that could rise into the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Coach of the Year (COY)
Leading candidate: J.B. Bickerstaff
Coach of the Year is always a highly contested award with many reasonable candidates — but if the Detroit Pistons finish with the NBA’s best winning percentage, which they have at the All-Star break, then Bickerstaff will be a shoo-in after placing as the runner-up last season.
In the hunt: A number of young coaches whose teams have overperformed expectations are in the hunt for Coach of the Year, chiefly Phoenix’s Jordan Ott, San Antonio’s Mitch Johnson and Boston’s Joe Mazzulla, whose team has withstood the loss of five rotation players from last season to contend in the East.
Most Improved Player (MIP)
Leading candidates: Deni Avdija and Jalen Johnson
This award looks like a toss-up between the two first-time All-Stars who are stuffing the stat sheet for play-in teams. Avdija is averaging 25.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game, while Johnson is at 23.3 points, 10.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists — and the Trail Blazers and Hawks are separated by just one game and 0.7 points of net rating. As long as both players stay healthy, this race should go down to the wire.
In the hunt: As usual, there are more compelling candidates for Most Improved Player than any other award. That group this year includes Jalen Duren, manning the middle for the East-leading Pistons; Keyonte George, single-handedly accelerating Utah’s competitive timetable; Dillon Brooks and Michael Porter Jr., both showing new skills for new teams; Ryan Rollins, emerging from two-way player to legitimate NBA starter; and many more breakout players from across the league.
Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)
Leading candidate: Victor Wembanyama
As long as Wembanyama qualifies by reaching the 65-game minimum, he will be the heavy favorite to take home the hardware. Wembanyama averages a league-best 2.7 blocks and 1.0 steals per game, and no other player influences opposing offensive strategy like the Spurs center. His biggest hurdle will be eligibility, as he already has missed 14 games and has only three more to spare.
In the hunt: Chet Holmgren
If Wembanyama falls short of 65 games, the field opens up to many more candidates. Holmgren might be the favorite in that scenario as the biggest individual standout from the NBA’s best defense. He is allowing opponents to shoot just 47% at the rim, the second-lowest mark in the league. (Only the now-suspended Isaiah Stewart is stingier, at 43%.) The versatility of Scottie Barnes and Amen Thompson makes them worthy of consideration. And Rudy Gobert is a DPOY standby who’s quietly turning in another impressive campaign.
Who are the players already ineligible?
Several stars are already ineligible for end-of-season awards because they won’t meet the 65-game minimum, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Franz Wagner, Austin Reaves and Jalen Williams. James’ absence ends a record 21-season All-NBA streak. Antetokounmpo had made nine consecutive All-NBA teams — including seven straight first teams.
Who are the players at risk of being ineligible?
Many more stars are one injury away from being removed from award consideration due to time missed before the All-Star break. Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry can miss only one more game apiece to remain eligible. Victor Wembanyama can miss three. Kawhi Leonard, Devin Booker and Evan Mobley can miss four. Luka Doncic can miss five. Anthony Edwards can miss six. And Deni Avdija can miss seven.
— Zach Kram
Draft lottery watch
There are two ways to look at how we watch the race to the bottom of the standings.
The first is whether we will see any more teams fined — or even see a loss of draft picks — for violating the player participation policy and for conduct detrimental to the league.
At his annual All-Star media availability, commissioner Adam Silver said that the league is exploring options on how to fix the tanking issue while also making it known that nothing is off the table, including stripping teams of draft picks if they continue to violate the rules.
Because the lottery odds have changed significantly, finishing in the bottom of the standings does not guarantee a top pick in the draft.
Two of the teams recently fined, Indiana and Utah, will lose their first if it falls outside of a protected range. The Pacers will send their first to the LA Clippers if it is in Nos. 5-9, and the Thunder will have Utah’s first if it is outside the top eight after the lottery. The Wizards also keep their first if it is in the top eight.
One storyline to watch is Oklahoma City and San Antonio finishing atop the standings while also having a lottery pick in June. The Thunder have the Clippers’ first, and San Antonio has the right to swap firsts with Atlanta (the Clippers and Hawks are both play-in teams). Atlanta, meanwhile, has the more favorable first between Milwaukee and New Orleans. — Marks
Projected playoff seeding, via BPI
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