CHICAGO — In late February of the last two years, Toronto Raptors fans have wondered how often they could lose rather than win. Now, while so much of the league is obsessed with tanking, with Adam Silver moving toward making changes, the Raptors have moved on to trying to win in February and March.
Ahead of the curve, the Raptors.
“I think it’s amazing,” Scottie Barnes said Thursday morning, before a 110-101 win over the Chicago Bulls, about playing for something in the final third of the year. Barnes hasn’t played a meaningful post-All-Star break game since his second season, in 2022-23. He broke his thumb in March 2024, which cost him the remainder of the season. “We’ve got a great opportunity at hand. We’ve just got to take full advantage of it.”
The Raptors’ win was hardly a statement of intent. The Bulls played sloppily, and the Raptors couldn’t shoot straight, about what you’d expect from the two teams. Given that wins matter this February, an ugly win is easier to take.
However, it did little to answer the three questions that will define how successful the rest of the Raptors’ regular season will be.
How important is a big?
In 2023-24, the Raptors were outscored by just 0.6 points per 100 possessions with Jakob Poeltl on the floor, and by 9.2 points when he was off. Last year, they were outscored by 0.7 points with him on the court and 6.2 points when he was on the bench. The Raptors never had a capable defensive centre behind Poeltl during that time, making Poeltl one of the team’s most valuable players.
This year, Poeltl has been plagued by a back injury, limited when he has played and kept out of the lineup for nearly two months until returning before the All-Star break. His on-court net rating has remained the same heading into the Chicago game, at minus-0.6. The Raptors have won the minutes he has not played by 2.2 points.
In other words, the Raptors were far better in the previous two seasons when Poeltl played. This year, they have been slightly better when he has not. That doesn’t mean the Raptors are necessarily better without him. Perhaps they are better without a limited version of the big man, but their ceiling includes 25-30 minutes of a healthy Poeltl. He is the only 7-footer on the roster.
“He’s been great for us in screen setting, pick-and-rolls, floaters, rebounding, his defensive presence,” Barnes said. “He does so much for our team (with) his passing ability. We love Jak. We need him.”
Poeltl told The Athletic on Wednesday that he returned from the All-Star break feeling great. Coach Darko Rajaković said he will still be on a minutes restriction, with the hope of building him up as the spring nears. He came off the bench against the Bulls, playing just 16 minutes. Poeltl said there is no reason for him to take it slow.
“I’m not gonna hold back now, so I’m ready for the playoffs, because in a playoff setting I won’t be able to pull back,” Poeltl said. “I’ve got to give it my all. I’ve got to find a way to play 100 percent and just play as much as my body allows me. But to be honest, I’ve been feeling really good, so I don’t see a reason why I shouldn’t be able to play my minutes.”
Can the Raptors score when the game slows down?
In points per possession, the Raptors rank 26th on isolation plays, 15th on post-ups and 25th when a pick-and-roll handler finishes a play. Those are three foundational half-court scenarios, and the Raptors are either bad or average in all of them. The Raptors ranked 16th in offence heading into Thursday’s game, but only 0.7 points per 100 possessions separated them and 24th-ranked Milwaukee.
This question seems like it has been the eternal one for this iteration of the Raptors. If they make the playoffs, teams will be locked in to slowing the Raptors down. Other than getting the ball to Brandon Ingram in space, what can the Raptors do in those scenarios, given their lack of shooting? The Raptors’ offence wheezed to the buzzer in Chicago, rescued by a big assist and bucket from Ingram.
Perhaps this is where Poeltl can help, even if what he provides defensively and on the glass is what he’s more known for. Poeltl gives the Raptors another good finisher at the rim — already a team strength, as they rank ninth when the roller finishes a play — and sets firmer screens on pindowns for Toronto’s perimeter threats. He should help Immanuel Quickley, too.
If Poeltl is setting more on-ball screens, though, that will force Barnes to play off the ball more often.
“It’s going to be really just if they are together on the court, to make sure that you always have a guy playing in a dunker spot, so then they’re not overlying space outside,” Rajaković said of the possibility of playing Poeltl with rookie Collin Murray-Boyles. That will be more true than not with Barnes and Poeltl together, too.
One way or another, the Raptors are going to need some of their so-so shooters to get hot as they did to start the season. The Raptors’ map to upsetting superior teams is pairing an average offence with an excellent defence. The first part might be trickier.
Can the Raptors earn marquee wins?
Assuming relative health, the Raptors would be the underdog in a series against Detroit, New York, Boston and Cleveland, the top four in the Eastern Conference. They are winless against the first three teams, undefeated against the Cavaliers (although injuries were a factor in those games, along with most others) and 4-13 against the league’s top-10 teams. With the win in Chicago, they are 29-10 against the rest.
You might have heard about what could be an all-time race to the bottom in this year’s tank battles. The Raptors don’t stand to benefit that much from that. Of the 10 teams likely to try to win in the Eastern Conference, only the Celtics play fewer games against the “Egregious Six,” the term my colleague John Hollinger coined for bad teams with an incentive to lose, than the Raptors. Accordingly, it will be tough for the Raptors to make up ground.
However, if they’re worried about being caught from behind, at least the Magic, the team in the Play-In that is closest to the Raptors, have a similar schedule. Orlando is three games back of the Raptors.
On the other side, the Raptors start next week with a home back-to-back against Oklahoma City (who will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams) and San Antonio as part of 10 games against championship contenders to close the season. The Raptors would like to scratch out a few of those to give themselves some belief heading into the playoffs, should they get there.