Hatfield’s prediction: McKneely exposes UNC’s weak perimeter defense.
Feb 23, 2026 • 15:50 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Louisville Cardinals guard Isaac McKneely (10) handles the ball.
Louisville heads to North Carolina tonight for a pivotal ACC tilt.
Cardinals sharpshooter Isaac McKneely draws a very favorable matchup, and I expect him to shine this evening.
My North Carolina vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks tell you why I expect the senior to make it rain on Monday, February 23. This game tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisville vs North Carolina prediction
Louisville vs North Carolina best bet: Isaac McKneely Over 2.5 3-pointers (+140)
Isaac McKneely is the Louisville Cardinals‘ perimeter assassin, and the North Carolina Tar Heels‘ defense is built to let him cook.
He’s cashed multiple threes in six straight games while shooting 38% from deep. North Carolina allows just over a point per possession on attack-and-kick actions, ranking in the Bottom 20% of the country defending them.
At +140, this is a plus-money gift. McKneely posts a staggering 1.33 points per possession as a perimeter sniper on those exact sets. That’s elite efficiency on high volume.
Three triples could very well be the floor.
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Louisville vs North Carolina same-game parlay
Louisville has never won two straight games against North Carolina in school history, but there’s reason to suggest that changes. The aforementioned 3-point defensive issue is the driving force, as there are few teams you’d want to face more than Louisville when having this problem.
The other part is the massive, continued absence of Caleb Wilson. Not having a lottery pick impacts… well, everything.
Louisville’s defense has been a sieve this year in transition and has struggled to defend mobile bigs in the halfcourt. The Tar Heels have that. The story from this game will be the Cardinals simply outscoring UNC in an ACC slugfest.
Louisville vs North Carolina SGP
Isaac McKneely Over 2.5 3-pointers
Louisville moneyline
Over 162.5
Our beyond the arc SGP: Veesar vaults Over point prop
Veesaar can pick and pop, but even more importantly, with no Wilson, he is the clear-cut roll man off high-ball screens. Louisville has struggled to defend against these actions all season, ranking in the bottom half of the conference in that regard.
Louisville vs North Carolina SGP
Isaac McKneely Over 2.5 3-pointers
Louisville moneyline
Over 162.5
Henri Veesaar Over 17.5 points
Louisville vs North Carolina odds
Spread: Louisville -3.5 | North Carolina +3.5
Moneyline: Louisville -185 | North Carolina +155
Over/Under: Over 162.5 | Under 162.5
Louisville vs North Carolina betting trend to know
North Carolina has hit the 1H Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 42% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. North Carolina.
How to watch Louisville vs North Carolina
Location
Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Date
Monday, February 23, 2026
Tip-off
7:00 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
Louisville vs North Carolina key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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