Alberta Premier Danielle Smith answers questions at a news conference in Calgary on Friday.Todd Korol/The Canadian Press
The same Alberta government that has opened Pandora’s box with plans for a referendum on immigration, and potentially separation, also pumps out reams of studies showing why the province needs a steady inflow of workers and political stability.
In a survey that raises the question, “Does Premier Danielle Smith read what her government colleagues write?” the province keeps a running inventory of every public and private sector projects valued at $5-million or more. There are 968 names on Alberta’s to-do list, with a price tag of $197.1-billion.
Much of the money for those projects will have to come from outside the province.
Alberta civil servants also run a study, updated every two years, on the outlook for the province’s labour market.
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Until this year, the province had far more job openings than it did potential employees. The imbalance spurred the successful “Alberta is Calling” advertising campaign Ms. Smith’s government used to lure skilled labour. In Ontario, it included billboards saying: “What did the Albertan say to the Torontonian? You’re hired.”
The latest reading on the job market, from June, 2024, showed that by 2026 Alberta will have 8,000 more workers than it needs. But the surplus mainly consists of middle managers in retail and service jobs.
The government’s own data show that for the next seven years, the province will continue to face significant shortfalls of trade contractors, nurses, health care technicians and professionals with science backgrounds.
In other words, the workers needed to build the province’s 968 projects and keep Albertans healthy.
Many of those skilled jobs will need to be filled by people from outside Canada – the same highly qualified immigrants who face waiting a year for health care and other government benefits, if voters say yes to one of the questions on Ms. Smith’s proposed referendum.
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Why would any potential immigrant make Alberta their first choice as a destination? Why would any money manager or lender put funding one of the province’s 968 projects at the top of their list? Until this referendum plays out, it’s tools down for immigrants and investors.
On Friday, Ms. Smith also opened the door to the province leaving Canada. She said that if the citizen group gathering support for Alberta separation gets enough signatures, its independence question will be put to residents on the same ballot this fall.
As former British prime minister David Cameron discovered during the 2016 Brexit campaign, referendums started to placate internal party dissent can end in disaster.
While Alberta business leaders are reluctant to get crosswise with the Premier by publicly criticizing her referendum plans, there are widespread concerns the vote will undermine the province’s economy. There are fears the unintended consequences of the campaign will include weakening Canadian unity during trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.
CEOs fear sounding off on issues such as immigration and separation in Alberta and Quebec in part because past attempts to put national interests ahead of provincial politics have triggered small but vocal backlashes from single-issue voters, including calls for boycotting businesses.
The experts who are weighing in on referendum questions include Gabriel Fabreau, a physician and professor the University of Calgary who specializes in health systems. On Friday, he said policies that restrict access to health care for newcomers could be catastrophic for Alberta’s economy and social system. Others have pointed out the referendum undermines the Premier’s campaign to make the province a destination for global investors.
As Alberta’s referendum snowballs into a larger conversation around the future of Canada, CEOs in Calgary and across the country will need to speak out.
Alberta, like most other provinces, has scrimped on social infrastructure. Ms. Smith and her predecessors didn’t spend enough on hospitals, schools and the professionals who staff them. Staging a referendum that scapegoats immigrants is nothing more than a distraction from these mistakes.
Fulfilling the promise of Alberta, and of Canada, is going to require working together. Not a referendum that pits one portion of the province’s population against another.