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Two Trackhouse Racing drivers have the odds in their favor ahead of Sunday’s NASCAR Cup race.
The NASCAR Cup Series circuit heads to the Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas on Sunday, March 1. The DuraMax Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne is scheduled for 95 laps and 228 miles around the 2.3-mile road course.
Ahead of the first road-course race of the 2026 campaign, a pair of Trackhouse Racing drivers are favored by the odds makers to be the ones to beat on Sunday. Meanwhile, a few heavy-hitters in the Cup Series field are seen as longshots.
Shane van Gisbergen, Connor Zilisch enter as favorites to win COTA
In the race odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbooks, Trackhouse Racing driver Shane van Gisbergen is favored to win this Sunday at +120 to win. Given his track record on road courses, it’s no surprise the New Zealand native is the heavy favorite.
Entering Sunday’s race, van Gisbergen is on a five-race winning streak at road courses. Such a feat has only been accomplished one other time by NASCAR Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon.
Last year’s NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year won at Mexico City, Chicago Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and the Charlotte Roval. It was the most races won by a rookie driver in a single season.
However, the one road-course race van Gisbergen was unable to win last year was CoTA. The then driver of the No. 88 led 23 laps and finished top five in both stages, but wound up finishing sixth.
Despite that, van Gisbergen’s strong resume on road courses gives him the edge by the odds makers this weekend.
Coming in with the second-best odds is van Gisbergen’s teammate, Connor Zilisch, at +350 to win. Amid his rookie season in the NASCAR Cup Series, Zilisch is another proven road racer and could wind up in victory lane on Sunday.
Last year, Zilisch earned five wins and five poles on road courses in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series. The 19-year-old also won on the Watkins Glen course in 2024 in his O’Reilly Auto Parts Series debut.
Yet, Zilisch only has one start on road courses in the Cup Series as he posted a 37th-place effort at COTA in 2025. Based on his history in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, it makes sense as to why the odds are in Zilisch’s favor this Sunday.
Cup Series standouts enter as underdogs
The odds makers aren’t favoring a number of usual contenders for wins in the NASCAR Cup Series. Ryan Blaney enters as a +4500 longshot to win on Sunday at COTA, while Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin each have +6000 odds to claim the victory.
Given their recent track record at road courses, it’s not a surprise the odds makers aren’t giving these drivers the best chances of winning. Blaney has one road-course win that came back in 2018, and has posted only one top 10 in the last six road-course races.
His Team Penske teammate’s stats are virtually identical. Logano has one road-course victory back in 2015 and has posted one top 10 in the last six road-course events.
Meanwhile, while Hamlin posted a fourth-place finish in the Chicago street race last year, the driver of the No. 11 has four finishes of 20th or worse in the last five road-course races.
John Breeden John Breeden is a NASCAR contributor at Heavy Sports. He has five years of sports journalism experience. He graduated from James Madison University in May of 2022 with a degree in media arts and design. John is also a sports reporter for the Daily News-Record in Harrisonburg, Virginia. Previously, John was a sports writer for JMU’s The Breeze and a NASCAR content writer for Sportskeeda. More about John Breeden
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