The NASCAR Cup Series heads to one of America’s most iconic race tracks this weekend: Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. Two crazy things to consider as the race gets closer: One driver — Tyler Reddick — could sweep the first three races of the year. Or, the best road course driver in the Cup Series — Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) — could finally conquer the one road course he has yet to win.

Or, someone else entirely will claim this year’s COTA crown.

As always, we’re bringing questions about the race to our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, and getting their predictions for the outcome.

The DuraMax Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne at Circuit of the Americas is this Sunday, March 1, at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX and HBO Max.

Take it away, guys!

Race winner odds for NASCAR’s DuraMax Texas Grand Prix

Let’s start with the obvious: Tyler Reddick is on a heater!!? Last year, it was Christopher Bell who started the season with an early three-peat (for him, COTA was in the middle). What’s going on with these early runs of dominance, and will Reddick keep it going this year?

Jeff: Winning back-to-back drafting track races to open the season is a wild way to start the year, given their usual randomness. Heck, Reddick did it last week at Atlanta without even having his right front fender on the car. Going three in a row to start a year would be incredible, but Reddick actually might be able to do it. Guess who has the best average finish at COTA? Reddick. Guess who has the most top-fives at COTA? Reddick. Guess who has never finished outside of the top 10 in COTA’s five races? Reddick again (only Alex Bowman can also make that claim). So it’s not out of the question. Except there’s one giant problem named Shane van Gisbergen.

Jordan: On pure talent alone, Reddick is one of the best in the garage. He’s capable and has won on just about every type of circuit on the schedule. So his going back-to-back to start the season isn’t surprising. And now that he’s heading to COTA, a track that is among his very best, he has a good shot to run his winning streak to three.

The past winners of the Cup race at COTA are Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and Christopher Bell. Do you think we’ll have a new winner or a repeat this year?

Jeff: You teed me up for an easy one here, but it’s a new winner, and it’s SVG. How can anyone realistically pick against him at this point? The best road racer in NASCAR history (contrary to what Jordan says) has won five road course races in a row! Five! In a row! COTA was the only one he didn’t win last year, and he’ll fix that problem this weekend.

Jordan: Yes, we will have a new winner. Emphatically yes, considering the list of notable drivers who are talented on road courses yet are winless at COTA. And, of course, atop that list is van Gisbergen. Also, let’s not forget about Connor Zilisch. The rookie earning his first-ever Cup Series win Sunday would not be at all shocking.

What’s different or new about the race this year? What are you most excited for, and what might throw us for a loop?

Jeff: I’d say what’s new about this race is that Zilisch is now a full-time Cup driver, and that could make a big difference. COTA last year was Zilisch’s Cup Series debut, and he got caught up in a Lap 1 incident — but was posting top-five lap times on his way back up through the field and climbed to 14th before getting into another crash. He’s going to have much more confidence now and is teammates with SVG, so they have the same equipment. Everyone in NASCAR has been waiting to see if Zilisch and SVG will actually go head-to-head, as we saw in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series last year on a couple of occasions. This will be the first answer to that question.

Jordan: SVG vs. Zilisch is going to be a treat to watch. We saw how spirited their battles were last year in O’Reilly, and the expectation is that this will continue on Sundays. Buckle up. This will be fun.

OK, let’s do it: Who is your favorite to win on Sunday? No surprise that SVG is a considerable favorite, considering all you’ve said. But he has yet to win a Cup Series race here… What’s with that!?

Jeff: It’s true SVG is 0-for-2 at COTA. Last year, he led 23 laps but finished sixth as the battle came down to Bell and Kyle Busch. But after this race, SVG really found another gear in stock cars and became his incredibly dominant self — winning three road races by more than 10 seconds (including the Roval last fall by 15.1 seconds). This wasn’t very helpful if you’re looking to bet, so I’ll drop a bet here I think could work for you: BetMGM has a matchup between Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain where Busch is +110, and he finished second last year.

Jordan: To quote Ric Flair, “To be the man, you have to beat the man.” And right now, SVG is undoubtedly the man on road courses. Picking against him is unwise.

Who is a long shot you like?

Jeff: Some of the normal names I’d pick here aren’t really “long shots,” like Bowman (since he’s never finished outside the top 10 here) or Ty Gibbs or Michael McDowell. Their odds are all mid-range. But a true “long shot” who could win is Daniel Suarez at +6000. He’s never finished better than 24th at COTA, but he’s clicking with his new team at Spire Motorsports and is a previous road race winner in the Next Gen car (Sonoma 2022). I’m not saying he’ll do it, but it’s also not impossible.

Jordan: Chase Briscoe is someone who’s getting overlooked, and he shouldn’t be. He’s very skilled on road courses, his crew chief, James Small, is a smart strategist, and his Joe Gibbs Racing team is elite.