For the second time this season, the Battle of Ontario reignites Saturday evening with Toronto and Ottawa in desperate need of a win.

It’s been over three weeks since either team picked up a win, with Toronto dropping both games in Florida after the Olympic break and Ottawa losing their lone game back 2-1 in overtime against Detroit.

After each team made the playoffs last season, they enter the final stretch of the regular season on the outside looking in.

Sitting at 64 points, Ottawa is +240 on FanDuel to make up the seven-point difference between them and a playoff spot. That number comes with an implied probability of 29.41 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Leafs enter Saturday night one point behind Ottawa despite having played an extra game and sit at +750 on FanDuel (11.76 per cent) to make the postseason.

Before we key in on the two American-born captains, let’s take a quick peek at some trends that stand out ahead of puck drop.

Betting trends for Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators (Feb. 28, 2026)

The Ottawa Senators are 1-5 in their last six games vs. bottom 10 scoring defences The over has hit in 12 of the Ottawa Senators’ last 18 games on the road Tim Stützle has scored in five of his last 10 games against Toronto Auston Matthews has at least one assist in four of his last five games against bottom 10 defences for assists allowed Matthew Knies has five goals in his last seven games against Ottawa

Captain America vs. Captain Ottawa

After winning a gold medal together at the Olympics last week, Matthews and Brady Tkachuk will share the ice Saturday night as captains on opposite sides.

In two games since returning, Matthews has two points with no goals and just four shots on goal. The 28-year-old had three points against Ottawa in December and has 11 points in his last eight games against the Sens.

Meanwhile, Tkachuk had a goal Thursday night against Detroit and has at least one point in six straight games against Toronto.

Cowboy makes his return

Easton Cowan is expected to draw back into Toronto’s lineup for the first time since two games prior to the Olympic break, snapping a run of 30 days without NHL action for Cowan.

Head coach Craig Berube said prior to puck drop Thursday he felt Cowan had hit a wall going into the break.

“At the time I took him out of the lineup, I felt [Cowan] hit a bit of a wall. We won three in a row, so I kept the same lineup going into the game against Tampa last night,” Berube told reporters.

“I don’t believe his development is being hurt. I believe he has improved this year as the year has gone along. He still has the swagger that’s needed. He’s a confident kid.”

This will be his first time suiting up for Toronto in the Battle of Ontario. He is +480 to score on FanDuel and can be found at +190 to record a point.

The 20-year-old has seven goals and 10 assists for 17 points while averaging 13:31 of ice time per game in 43 outings this season as a rookie.

Giroux back in his happy place

Senators forward Claude Giroux has played in the NHL since 2007, and we can see he’s enjoyed playing for two specific teams during those 19 seasons.

Giroux has played at least 40 games against 15 teams during his career, scoring at least one point per game against the Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Earlier this season, Giroux had two assists in Ottawa’s 7-5 loss to the Leafs, and he has 10 points in his last 10 games against Toronto.

A Same Game Parlay for the Battle of Ontario

As this heated rivalry renews, here is a Same Game Parlay I have locked in for tonight’s game between Ottawa and Toronto.

Matthews 1+ assist

Tkachuk 1+ assist

Stützle Anytime goal

Knies Anytime goal

+1817