The courts in Indian Wells, within the heart of the Golden State, California, have not been a happy hunting ground for Jannik Sinner. While recognized as one of the two best players in tennis and arguably the best hard-court player in the world, he has yet to make the finals on the hard courts of Indian Wells. For a man whose level, particularly on hard courts, has been ridiculously high, it’s a bit of a surprise. He, however, unfortunately missed last year’s event -one of his absolute best years on tour so far, owing to the three-month ban handed to him, meaning he didn’t get an opportunity to make a claim.
He would this time out be looking for at least a final run in this year’s edition. But looking at the year he has had so far, losing out to Novak Djokovic in the semi finals in Melbourne, in the manner that he did, failing to capitalize on 16 of 18 breakpoint opportunities whilst being the overwhelming favourite and then following that up with a quarter final loss to Jakub Mensik in Doha, and then seeing Carlos Alcaraz win both competitions as well, you get the feeling that anything short of a title win will feel inadequate, especially if Alcaraz goes on to win it.
There is already talk circulating that his Spanish adversary, Alcaraz, is just beginning to pull away from him. While such suggestions are certainly premature, they are not without merit, as so far this season, Sinner has looked a distant second best, or maybe even third best, depending on who you ask. Sinner has also talked about making what he feels are necessary changes to his game and concedes that, during this process, results may take a hit, and he isn’t too bothered by his start to the year.
The Indian Wells Challenge
However, it certainly feels that another poor showing, by his standards, in Indian Wells will not help the confidence. This right now feels like a competition he has to put on a good showing, if only to stave off the naysayers and dispel any mental doubts. To do so, though, might not quite be as straightforward. As pointed out, this is not a tournament that has brought the Italian much joy. Despite being a hard court, Sinner’s most successful surface, it differs in almost every way you’d expect a hard court to be. Something that has probably contributed to Sinner’s limited success there.
The courts at Indian Wells are notoriously slow and have a very high bounce, making it more akin to a clay court in terms of play. In terms of how it compares to other hard courts, like those at the Australian Open, for example, it would be like comparing a Beetle to a Ferrari. The surfaces tend to lead to longer exchanges, making it difficult for Sinner to employ his traditional fast-paced style, characterised by making plenty of winners and drawing loads of errors from opponents, as well as much shorter points. Instead, he finds himself having to hit more balls just to win the point. The organisers made changes to the surface last year in a bid to speed up the courts, switching to the same surface used by the US Open, but reports suggest not much has changed in terms of how the court plays.
His performances have improved in his last 2 participations in 2023 and 2024, when he made the semi-finals both times, after previously failing to go past the fourth round for different reasons in his prior two tournament appearances. This would offer some reassurance to him and to fans who hope he can at least emulate that record and, hopefully, go a couple of steps further. Also, his performance at Roland Garros last year, where he came agonisingly close to winning the title despite a very brief clay-court season, suggests that he can adapt to the more clay-like feel of the Indian Wells courts.
Next Steps For Sinner
The concern, though, and a valid one at that, is that, like the French Open, where he eventually lost to Alcaraz in a very dramatic fashion, his run at his last two appearances at this competition was halted by the same man: Alcaraz. Both times, the mercurial Spaniard went on to win the competition. In fact, in 2024, Sinner could not have come into the match in better form, boasting an impressive run of nineteen consecutive match wins prior to being bested by Alcaraz. It highlights the scale of what the 3-time hard court Majors champion might face if he is to win the first of the Sunshine Double tournaments.
Whatever the case might be, title or not, it is imperative that Sinner leaves California having given a good account of himself. His obvious qualities cannot be questioned despite what seems like a bit of a crisis period. It is, however, instructive that, in trying to remodel his game, making it more modern with a wider skill set, probably in a bid to stay in touch with Alcaraz, he does not veer too far from what made him such a difficult opponent to play against. He must try to stay true to himself and what he does best. It’s evident that at his own best, he has enough to trouble and beat the Spaniard.
It has also been suggested that if both players play at their absolute best, he might find it harder to match up with Alcaraz, which might be while he feels now is the time to add more to his game, especially with Alcaraz seemingly now more focused and cutting out the dips in matches that used to be his thing. He must, however, look to Djokovic’s own battles with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, a man who perfected his own style of play while steadily but definitely adding what was missing. He has been touted as “Djokovic 2.0”; he must now trust the process as he pursues an elusive first Indian Wells final, and maybe, who knows, even win the title.
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images