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Welcome to Prime Tire. Charles Leclerc got married, and while we’re happy for him, we’re only here for the Leo content. It did not disappoint.
No notes.
It’s Australian Grand Prix week. I’m Patrick, and nobody will be with me shortly, because they’re asleep in Australia. Let’s get to it.
But first, share your predictions for the season here. We’ll share ours on the site Thursday and review yours here Friday.
Update: How the Iran conflict affects F1
Before we get to racing, it’s important to note that recent retaliatory missile and drone strikes against U.S. military bases across the Gulf have hit installations in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — all four countries that host Formula 1 races. The sport visits Bahrain and Saudi Arabia on back-to-back weekends starting on April 12.
The next three races — Australia, China, Japan — are not in the affected region, and F1 noted as much in a carefully worded statement. The championship says it is monitoring the situation closely and chartering flights for key staff to Melbourne. The race this weekend is on.
We’ll keep you updated as the situation develops. You can follow The New York Times’ live coverage on it here.
Out on a Limb: Things I will/won’t believe until Sunday
It’s the Tuesday before the season opener, and everyone wants opinions. Here are mine, with varying degrees of confidence.
I don’t believe: That the preseason pecking order means anything, especially this year. The fastest preseason team has failed to win either title in back-to-back seasons, and its hit rate over the last decade is well below 50 percent.
I believe: That we are going to see some genuinely wild starts in the next few weeks. Ferrari apparently figured this out already (more on that later). Everyone else is somewhere on the learning curve. “Very random” is how Oscar Piastri described preseason starts. Fun for us, though.
I don’t believe: That we have clean reads on where Audi and Cadillac actually are. Don’t get me wrong: Both will finish near the back on Sunday. The interesting question is by how much, and whether one of them surprises us. My money is on Cadillac being the more charming disaster of the two.
I believe: George Russell is a title contender. And so is Leclerc.
I don’t believe: That the broadcasts suddenly know how to explain the new cars to the audience this weekend. We’ll all figure this out together by June, I guess.
I believe: That Verstappen will be fast despite hating every second of it.
I choose not to have an opinion on: Whether McLaren has lost their status as the class of the field. Their car looked competitive but not dominant in testing. Ask me after Lap 10.
I reserve the right to change all of the above by approximately 8 p.m. Sunday.
This weekend’s schedule:
FP1: Thursday 8:30 p.m. ET / Friday 1:30 a.m. GMT
FP2: Friday midnight ET / Friday 5:00 a.m. GMT
FP3: Friday 8:30 p.m. ET / Saturday 1:30 a.m. GMT
Qualifying: Saturday midnight ET / Saturday 5:00 a.m. GMT
Race: Saturday 11:00 p.m. ET / Sunday 4:00 a.m. GMT
A Brief Orientation: The new rules, explained (kind of)
Nobody fully understands the 2026 regulations yet.
At some point during preseason testing, Max Verstappen called the new cars “anti-racing.” Kimi Antonelli called racing them “speed chess.” McLaren’s Andrea Stella said overtaking during testing was “extremely difficult.” You’ll recall me lightly dunking on the broadcasters for melting into metaphysical puddles trying to explain it.
The 2026 regulations are genuinely complicated. The engines and aerodynamic philosophy have changed. There’s something called Boost, and it’s not about the phone company. The cars are smaller and lighter and run on fully sustainable fuel. Nearly everything is different, the drivers aren’t sure if they’re having fun and the teams themselves won’t know the true pecking order until cars hit the track in Melbourne next week.
(Don’t fret — Luke says F1 still feels like F1.)
So if you’ve watched the testing coverage and still aren’t quite sure what “Straight Mode” means, you’re in good company. We’ve been working through all of it in a series of explainers. Good people talked to us — engineers, team bosses, drivers — and we’ve tried to make sense of what they said:
We’ll publish one more for you tomorrow on what the weight and size reductions actually mean.
Aston Martin: Things are unraveling for the team in green
If you’re watching the Australian Grand Prix on Sunday and you see Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll pull their Aston Martins into the pit lane, park them and climb out — don’t panic. That’s all part of the plan? Question mark?
Aston Martin is in trouble, folks.
Reports this week have suggested the team’s realistic goal in Melbourne is simply to get the cars off the grid and complete a handful of laps — enough to fulfill their contractual obligations to F1 before calling it a day. On the final day of testing in Bahrain, Aston completed six laps. Six laps. I’ve done more laps of a parking garage. Not on purpose. Let’s rewind: Luke has the full story on how it got this bad.
Two things worth holding in your head as you watch this weekend:
This is not necessarily fatal. McLaren looked lost for two full seasons before winning back-to-back constructors’ championships. But …
Alonso is 44. He came here specifically for this. To, if not to win that elusive third championship, at least compete for it. To win races. Watching him park the car he’s waited for laps into the first race could be one of the sadder storylines I can remember.
Meanwhile … Ferrari might be fine?
Keep an eye on Ferrari this weekend. In Bahrain, Lewis Hamilton charged past four cars on a practice start. Then Leclerc did the same thing the next morning. Just blasted off the line while everyone else stood there blinking.
Luke has the full breakdown of why Ferrari’s starts look so good, and why it might matter.
Outside the points
➗ We have a compromise in the compression ratio saga. Hurray! I think!
📈 Cadillac confirmed their first upgrades are already coming for Australia.
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