The idea of Quebec separating from Canada is the least popular it’s been since the 1995 referendum, according to a new poll.
The new Leger/Journal de Montreal survey found that if a referendum were held now, 71 per cent of Quebecers would vote no to separation, and just 29 per cent would vote yes.
Leger pollster Sebastien Dallaire says the Trump administration’s hostility toward Canada and other ongoing global disruptions are making people think twice about creating a country.
“It’s a bit unnerving for voters at this time,” Dallaire said in an interview. “We can expect that the numbers will rise again if tensions ease up, but even that’s a question mark because we know unpredictability is pretty much the name of the game right now.”
The Parti Quebecois has held a commanding lead in the polls for several months as the province heads toward October’s provincial election. They’ve promised a referendum in their first mandate.
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According to the new Leger voter intention numbers, the PQ is now neck-and-neck with the Liberals. Thirty-one per cent of the vote would go to the PQ, and 30 per cent to the Liberals. The Liberals have gained four points in the past month, while the PQ has lost one.
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The Conservatives are at 15 per cent, the CAQ is at 13 per cent and Quebec Solidaire is at nine per cent.
New leader Charles Milliard took over the reins of the Liberal Party last month. They had been rising under previous leader Pablo Rodriguez until scandal struck, dragging numbers back down.
“It seems to be the case right now that the Liberals are turning a corner and maybe turning the page on this,” Dallaire said of the multiple ongoing investigations into Rodriguez’ leadership campaign.
“Of course, we know this issue will likely come back in the news as investigations draw to a close in coming months.“
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Dallaire doesn’t necessarily think Milliard is the reason for the new surge, saying the 46-year-old is still relatively unknown.
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The pollster believes growing support for Prime Minister Mark Carney is helping the Liberals, and so is international instability.
“There’s a bit of a natural tendency for Quebec voters to go back to the Liberal party in moments like these,” he said.
According to Dallaire, the most recent numbers would likely amount to a PQ minority government. With the election still seven months away, a lot can change.
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