A petroleum analysis expert says this week’s gas price increase goes beyond a seasonal spring bump and is a result of the recent escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Between Friday and Saturday, the average price for regular gas in the Capital Regional District hovered between $1.80 and $1.81 per litre.
It’s not the first time the region has hit that high note. While prices for the most part have slowly meandered upwards since the start of 2026, the first big bump arrived between Feb. 18 and 20.
Gas prices in Greater Victoria hit $1.81/litre on Feb. 20, a significant spike from $1.65/litre the previous week, according to GasBuddy.
READ: Gas prices jump to $1.81/L in Victoria, may surpass $2 this spring
At that time, the $1.81/litre surge was attributed to a mix of seasonal factors, as West Coast-based refineries often conduct maintenance this time of year, leading to spring price increases, says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
Prices then went back down the following week, reaching $1.75/litre, but surged again following the U.S. attack on Iran on Feb. 28.
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“With developments over last weekend between Iran and the United States, this has destabilized global energy markets and driven up the price of oil…Oil prices have reacted jumping about five per cent,” De Haan said on March 2.
While he attributes some of that jump to Iran being a major oil producer, he points to the conflict in Iran leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway where 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply flows to international customers, causing oil prices to jump.
This weekend’s pump increase is not the highest jump the Island, or the country has seen. Over the past five years, the most significant pump spikes occurred in the summer of 2022 as Russia and Ukraine conflict escalated, spiking Victoria gas prices to $2.33/litre, and in April 2024, when Victoria pumps hit $2.24/litre.
Five-year regional gas trends for Victoria (green), Toronto (blue) and Vancouver (black):
GasBuddy image shows the past five year trends in gas prices in Toronto (blue), Victoria (green) and Vancouver (black), up to March 2, 2026.
“Ultimately this is not necessarily a massive spike in prices. It will be a noticeable jump at the pump, but it likely will be temporary as well,” says De Haan.
And it could remain high in the coming weeks as a reflection of the Iran and U.S. conflict he says.
Prior to the recent attacks, De Haan projected seasonal highs to start trending downward by May long weekend.
–With files from Adam Chan