March 7, 2026
Between February 20 and 25, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults aged 18 and over as part of our Alberta Omnibus survey. This is our third and final release which explores the federal political landscape in Alberta, including approval of the federal government, vote intention, and impressions of key leaders.
Alberta Federal Politics Survey – Abacus Data
Federal Government Approval: Divided but Slightly Positive
Albertans are closely divided in their assessment of the federal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Overall, 41% approve of the way the federal government is handling things in Canada, while 38% disapprove and 17% neither approve nor disapprove. That yields a modest net positive approval of +3.
Approval varies meaningfully by region. In Edmonton, 52% approve and 27% disapprove. In Calgary, approval stands at 45% with 35% disapproval. Outside the two major cities, attitudes shift. In other communities, only 30% approve while 47% disapprove. In rural Alberta, approval drops to 25% and disapproval rises to 53%.
Age differences are more muted. Approval is highest among those aged 60 and over at 45%, compared with 38% among those aged 30 to 44. Men and women express similar views.
Provincial vote history strongly shapes federal approval. Among those who voted UCP in the 2023 Alberta election, 1 in 5 approve of the Carney government while 61% disapprove. Among 2023 NDP voters, approval rises to 77% with just 9% disapproval.
The same polarization appears among current federal voters. Eighty four percent of federal Liberal voters approve of the government, compared with 1 in 5 of Conservative voters who approve.
Federal Vote Intention: Conservatives Lead, Liberals Competitive in Cities
If a federal election were held today, 51% of committed voters in Alberta say they would vote Conservative, 36% Liberal, and 7% NDP. Smaller shares support the People’s Party at 2%, the Greens at 1%, and other parties at 2%.
The Conservatives maintain a clear lead province wide but a much smaller one than the result of the 2025 election. The regional story is more also more nuanced.
In Edmonton, the Liberals lead with 47% compared with 40% for the Conservatives. In Calgary, the Conservatives hold a 10-point advantage, 49% to 39%. Outside the two major cities, the Conservative advantage widens considerably. Outside of Calgary and Edmonton, the Conservatives lead 61% to 26%. In rural Alberta, the Conservative vote rises to 65%, while the Liberals fall to 21%.
Age also shapes the contest. Among voters aged 18 to 29, the Conservatives lead with 39%, but the NDP is stronger here at 16%, its best showing. Among those aged 45 to 59 and 60 plus, Conservative support exceeds 53%.
Federal vote intention aligns strongly with provincial voting patterns. Among 2023 UCP voters, 89% say they would vote Conservative federally. Among 2023 NDP voters, 75% would vote Liberal and 15% would vote NDP.
This crossover is significant. Many Albertans who supported the provincial NDP in 2023 are now backing the federal Liberals under Carney rather than the federal NDP. In contrast, provincial UCP voters are highly consolidated behind the federal Conservatives.
Views toward Alberta independence also intersect with federal vote choice. Among those who strongly support Alberta independence, 79% would vote Conservative federally. Among those who strongly oppose independence, 56% would vote Liberal. Given that most Albertans strongly oppose independence, this could be one reason why the gap in federal vote intention has closed.
Leader Impressions: Carney and Poilievre Neck and Neck
Impressions of Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are strikingly similar in Alberta.
Forty percent have a positive impression of Carney and 37% negative, for a net impression of +3. Poilievre is viewed positively by 41% and negatively by 38%, also for a net of +3.
Regionally, Carney performs best in Edmonton, where 49% have a positive impression. His positive rating drops to 31% in other communities and 25% in rural areas. Poilievre’s strongest numbers come outside the big cities, where 49% have a positive view. 46% have a positive impression of Poilievre in rural Alberta view him positively.
Provincial vote history once again shapes perceptions. Among 2023 UCP voters, just 19% have a positive impression of Carney, compared with 76% of 2023 NDP voters. Conversely, 73% of UCP voters view Poilievre positively, compared with only 12% of NDP voters.
Federal alignment is even clearer. Eighty three percent of Liberal voters have a positive impression of Carney, while 74% of Conservative voters view Poilievre positively.
Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in Alberta, with only 14% expressing a positive impression and 71% negative. Even among 2023 UCP voters, positive impressions of Trump stand at 23%.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “This survey reveals a federal political landscape in Alberta that is still very favourable to the Conservatives but more competitive than it has been in a very long time.
The Conservatives lead with 51%, but the Liberals are competitive at 36% and lead outright in Edmonton. Calgary is competitive. The Conservative advantage is powered by overwhelming support outside the two major cities and in rural Alberta.
Mark Carney’s approval rating in Alberta sits at 41%, with 38% disapproval. That is not dominant, but it is not catastrophic either. In Edmonton and among those who voted NDP provincially in 2023, he performs very well. Among UCP voters, he struggles significantly.
The most interesting dynamic may be the realignment being caused by the threat o Alberta independence. A majority of those strongly opposed to Alberta independence would vote Liberal if a federal election was held today.
Taken together, this data shows a province divided along familiar urban rural and partisan lines. The Conservatives dominate outside Edmonton and Calgary. The Liberals are competitive in urban Alberta and may be opening up opportunities to win more seats in Edmonton. Leadership impressions are evenly split, and federal approval is narrowly positive.
In short, Alberta remains conservative leaning federally, but not monolithic. Geography, the debate about independence, and provincial political identity continue to shape federal attitudes in powerful ways.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted online with 1,000 adults aged 18 and over living in Alberta from February 20 to 25, 2026.
A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels managed through the PureSpectrum platform. These panels are typically double opt-in and blended to manage out potential skews that can occur when relying on a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to the latest Census data to ensure the sample matched Alberta’s population. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.
This research was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
For media interviews about this poll, please contact us at [email protected].
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