Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Vegas 114
DFS plays for this weekend’s UFC Vegas 114 card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake’s Takes.
Top UFC 326 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks:Â 55-22-0Â
2025 Overall Picks:Â 345-152-2Â
DFS Lock of the Week:Â Vallejos
Fanduel Captain: Vallejos/Orolbai
Josh Emmett (19-6-0) v. Kevin Vallejos (17-1-0)
Height: 5’6″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 19-6 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)Explosive power puncher with dangerous one-shot knockout abilityAge and declining activity make extended fights more difficult
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 17-1 (12 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)Younger, well-rounded prospect with strong pace and athleticismComfortable mixing striking and grappling while maintaining pressure
DFS Perspective: Emmett’s path to victory largely revolves around landing a flash knockout, as his power remains his biggest weapon. Outside of that scenario, Vallejos appears to hold advantages in youth, activity, and overall skill set. If Vallejos avoids the early power shots, he should be able to control the fight through volume, movement, and well-rounded offense. Vallejos profiles as the preferred DFS play with strong win equity and potential finishing upside if he overwhelms Emmett over time.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Vallejos
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Amanda Lemos (15-5-1) v. Gillian Robertson (16-8-0)
Height: 5’4″ – Reach: 65″ – Stance: SouthpawRecord: 15-5-1 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Dangerous striker with real finishing power on the feetHas struggled historically against strong grapplers who force prolonged control
Height: 5’5″ – Reach: 63″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 16-8 (3 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)Elite grappler with relentless takedown and submission huntingMost effective when she can impose a wrestling-heavy game plan
DFS Perspective: Robertson by submission is the most likely outcome if she is able to enforce her grappling early. Lemos remains dangerous on the feet, but her past struggles against strong wrestlers make this a difficult stylistic matchup. If Robertson consistently secures takedowns and advances position, she could quickly find a submission. Robertson profiles as the preferred DFS play, with strong finishing equity thanks to her grappling advantage.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Robertson
Oumar Sy (12-1-0) v. Ion Cutelaba (19-11-1)
Height: 6’4″ – Reach: 83″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 12-1 (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)Long, athletic fighter with strong finishing instincts and improving all-around gameUses reach and physicality well to control range and dictate exchanges
Height: 6’1″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: SouthpawRecord: 19-11-1 (13 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Aggressive brawler with early explosiveness and knockout powerCan be reckless and tends to fade when fights extend
DFS Perspective: Sy should have advantages across most phases of this matchup. His reach, composure, and more complete skill set give him a strong path to control the fight while avoiding Cutelaba’s early chaos. Cutelaba is always dangerous early, but Sy’s discipline and athleticism should allow him to weather that storm and take over. Sy profiles as the preferred DFS play with solid win equity and potential finishing upside if the fight stretches beyond the opening exchanges.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Sy
Andre Fili (25-12-0) v. Jose Delgado (10-2-0)
Height: 5’11” – Reach: 74″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 25-12 (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Experienced striker with good movement and clean boxing combinationsDurable but can be caught in firefights when exchanges open up
Height: 5’11” – Reach: 74″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 10-2 (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)Aggressive striker with real power and willingness to push exchangesDangerous when fights turn into high-tempo striking battles
DFS Perspective: This fight should feature plenty of striking and carries real knockdown potential on both sides. Fili’s experience and durability keep him competitive, but Delgado’s aggression and power give him the edge in landing the more damaging shots. In a fight likely to stay standing and feature heavy exchanges, Delgado is the more appealing DFS option with strong knockout upside.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Delgado
Marwan Rahiki (7-0-0) v. Harry Hardwick (13-4-1)
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 7-0 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Dangerous striker with real finishing power and forward pressureMost effective when fights turn into open striking exchanges
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 71″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 13-4-1 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submission)Aggressive fighter who is willing to trade in the pocketDurability concerns have shown when facing heavy hitters
DFS Perspective: This matchup carries clear volatility given the durability questions on both sides. Rahiki appears to be the more dangerous striker and should have the advantage if the fight becomes a back-and-forth striking battle. Hardwick will have opportunities if exchanges get chaotic, but Rahiki’s power and finishing ability make him the more likely fighter to capitalize. Rahiki profiles as the preferred DFS play with realistic knockout upside in a fight that could end quickly.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Rahiki
Vitor Petrino (13-2-0) v. Steven Asplund (7-1-0)
Height: 6’2″ – Reach: 77″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 13-2 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)Powerful, athletic striker with strong finishing instinctsMore composed and disciplined in exchanges than most opponents
Height: 6’5″ – Reach: 78″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 7-1 (6 KO/TKO)Aggressive and wild fighter who looks to create chaos earlyCan leave major openings defensively when pushing the pace
DFS Perspective: Petrino is the safer play here due to his composure and ability to fight within structure, especially against a more chaotic opponent like Asplund. That said, Asplund’s aggression means he always has a path if the fight becomes wild early. Petrino’s discipline and power give him the more reliable DFS scoring path, while Asplund remains a high-variance tournament option if he forces chaotic exchanges.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Petrino
Bruno Silva (15-7-2) v. Charles Johnson (18-8-0)
Height: 5’4″ – Reach: 65″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 15-7-2 (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)Aggressive fighter who looks to close distance and create scramblesCan struggle when opponents control range and limit grappling opportunities
Height: 5’9″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: SwitchRecord: 18-8 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)Clean striker with excellent defensive awareness and movementComfortable managing distance and winning rounds through volume
DFS Perspective: Johnson’s defense and technical striking should allow him to control the pace and keep Silva from imposing his grappling game. While that likely leads to Johnson getting his hand raised, the DFS ceiling may be somewhat limited if the fight plays out as a controlled striking battle without a finish. Johnson profiles as the preferred side due to his ability to manage range and avoid danger, but this may be more of a moderate-scoring decision scenario.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Johnson
Brad Tavares (21-11-0) v. Eryk Anders (17-9-0)
Height: 6’1″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 20-9 (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)Technical striker with a sharp jab and solid defensive fundamentalsExperienced veteran who typically wins fights through discipline and control
Height: 6’1″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: SouthpawRecord: 16-8 (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Physical fighter with power but inconsistent outputCan struggle to keep a consistent pace over three rounds
DFS Perspective: This projects as one of the weaker fights on the slate from a DFS standpoint. Neither fighter tends to push a high pace, which limits scoring potential unless an unexpected finish occurs. Tavares’ experience, defensive awareness, and slick jab give him the edge in a controlled striking matchup. He’s the safer pick to win the fight, but the overall DFS ceiling for this matchup remains low.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Tavares
Chris Curtis (32-12-0) v. Myktybek Orolbai (15-2-1)
Height: 5’10” – Reach: 75″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 32-12 (15 KO/TKO, 3 submission)Sharp boxer with strong counter-striking abilityCan struggle when opponents consistently pursue takedowns and control
Height: 5’10” – Reach: 74″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 15-2-1 (7 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)Relentless wrestler with strong top control and submission threatsExcellent at chaining takedowns and maintaining pressure
DFS Perspective: Orolbai could have a field day if he implements a wrestling-heavy game plan. His ability to repeatedly secure takedowns and control opponents creates a massive DFS scoring path through control time, advances, and submission attempts. Curtis is dangerous on the feet, but if Orolbai commits to rinse-and-repeat takedowns, he could produce another huge DFS score. Orolbai profiles as one of the strongest DFS targets on the slate due to his grappling dominance and scoring potential.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Orolbai
Bolaji Oki (10-3-0) v. Manoel Sousa (13-1-0)
Height: 5’10” – Reach: 73″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 10-3 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Powerful striker with strong physicality and finishing instinctsCan be hittable when exchanges become chaotic
Height: 5’9″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 13-1 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Explosive striker with excellent speed and knockout powerDangerous when he pressures and forces opponents into exchanges
DFS Perspective: Sousa’s power and speed make him the preferred side in this matchup. If the fight becomes a striking battle, his explosiveness and ability to land damaging shots give him a strong chance to secure a finish. Oki has power of his own, which keeps the fight volatile, but Sousa’s athleticism and aggression create the clearer DFS path. Sousa profiles as a strong tournament play with legitimate knockout upside.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Sousa
Luan Lacerda (13-3-0) v. Hecher Sosa (14-1-0)
Height: 5’7″ – Reach: 71″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 13-3 (11 submissions)Grappling-heavy fighter who relies heavily on takedowns and submission attemptsLimited striking arsenal makes him predictable when grappling is neutralized
Height: 5’9″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 14-1 (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)Well-rounded fighter with solid defensive grappling and striking powerComfortable keeping fights standing and forcing opponents out of their comfort zone
DFS Perspective: Lacerda’s one-dimensional grappling approach makes this a favorable stylistic matchup for Sosa. If Sosa is able to neutralize the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, he should have a clear advantage on the feet. Lacerda’s limited striking makes it difficult for him to adjust if his grappling game is canceled out. Sosa profiles as the preferred DFS play with potential scoring upside if he controls the fight and lands clean striking exchanges.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Sosa
Bia Mesquita (6-0-0) v. Montserrat Rendon (7-1-0)
Height: 5’4″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 6-0 (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)Elite grappler with world-class submission skills and strong positional controlDangerous whenever fights hit the mat and capable of ending fights quickly
Height: 5’8″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 7-1 Tough and durable fighter with a grinding styleLimited finishing ability and can struggle against elite grapplers
DFS Perspective: Mesquita gets a very favorable stylistic matchup here. Her elite grappling and submission ability give her a clear path to control the fight once it reaches the mat. Rendon’s toughness could keep her competitive early, but if Mesquita establishes top control, the submission threats will pile up quickly. Mesquita profiles as a strong DFS option with legitimate finishing upside through her grappling dominance.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Mesquita
Elijah Smith (9-1-0) v. Su Young You (16-3-0)
Height: 5’9″ – Reach: 71″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 9-1 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)Physical striker with good power and forward pressureMost effective when dictating pace and forcing exchanges
Height: 5’6″ – Reach: 65″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 16-3 (3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)Crafty and technical fighter with solid fight IQCapable of capitalizing on mistakes and creating upset opportunities
DFS Perspective: Smith’s strength and physicality give him the edge in this matchup, and if he controls the pace, he should be able to pull out the win. However, You’s craftiness and ability to capitalize on openings make him a legitimate upset threat if Smith becomes careless. Smith profiles as the preferred DFS side due to his power and pressure, but You remains a viable tournament dart for those looking for leverage if the fight turns chaotic.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Smith
Piera Rodriguez (11-2-0) v. Sam Hughes (11-6-0)
Height: 5’3″ – Reach: 63″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 11-2 (5 KO/TKO)Strong wrestler with good top control and positional awarenessMost effective when she can dictate pace and grind opponents on the mat
Height: 5’5″ – Reach: 64″ – Stance: OrthodoxRecord: 11-6 (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)Durable grinder who is comfortable in scrambles and clinch battlesLimited finishing ability but capable of making fights ugly and competitive
DFS Perspective: These fighters share fairly similar styles, but Rodriguez should be the one finding control positions more often. Her wrestling and ability to secure top position give her the clearest path to winning rounds and accumulating DFS scoring through control and advances. Hughes’ toughness could allow the fight to extend, but Rodriguez profiles as the preferred DFS side due to her ability to dictate where the fight takes place.
UFC Vegas 114 Pick: Â Rodriguez
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered “power strikes” by official scorers.A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered “power strikes” by official scorers.A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.Â
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.