Canadian families could face hundreds of dollars in additional food costs by early spring as conflict in the Middle East escalates, experts say.

As tensions in Iran continue to disrupt global markets, some Canadian food experts say consumers should brace for noticeable price hikes at the grocery store that could add up to several hundred dollars per household this year.

At Phillistines Bakery in northeast Calgary, pistachios are a signature ingredient. They appear in nearly 80 per cent of the bakery’s products, and owner Reyad Abusalim says the ongoing conflict is making it harder to secure the high‑quality Iranian pistachios his business relies on.

“It’s a difficult time because knowing that your future pistachio supplies are going to be cut off from you makes you lose sleep,” Abusalim said.

But pistachios are only one part of a much larger economic ripple effect.

As global oil prices surge past $90 and even $100 a barrel, food economists say Canadians should expect those increases to show up on grocery bills as early as late April.

“For each 25 per cent increase in oil, the food budget of a family of four goes up by about $150 to $200 a year,” said Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri‑Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University. “Multiply that by three, and that’s an extra $400 to $600 just because of what’s going on in Iran.”

The Calgary Food Bank is already feeling the strain. President and CEO Melissa From says the organization saw a 20 per cent jump in fuel costs in March alone, a significant hit for an operation that spends roughly $10,000 a month on fuel.

“As more and more Calgarians feel those crunches on the cost of food and the cost of heating their homes and the cost of fuel, we will then most likely start to see the trickle‑down effect of decreased donations and increased need,” she said.

Charlebois notes that if the conflict were to end quickly, the projected price spikes could still be avoided. But for businesses like Phillistines Bakery, the search for alternatives has already begun.

Abusalim says Turkish pistachios are one option, but suppliers there are also raising prices as global demand shifts.

“The stuff that I was buying for three dollars a kilo is almost $50 a kilo in Turkey right now,” he said. “So we’re concerned.”