The NASCAR Cup Series heads to its first intermediate track of the season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Kyle Larson leads the odds, but there are several drivers who could capture a win on Sunday.

As always, we’re bringing in our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, to break down the field headed into the race, pick favorites and long shots, and set the stakes for the season.

Take it away, guys!

Race winner odds for NASCAR’s Pennzoil 400 at VegasPredictions for the NASCAR Cup Series race at Las Vegas

First of all, congrats on both picking Ryan Blaney as the Phoenix winner! What did we see in last week’s “first real race” that might herald trends for the rest of the year?

Jeff: Going with Blaney was a little too easy, given he’s become sort of the Phoenix whisperer, but I’ll never complain about a correct pick. That said, I’m not sure how much Phoenix taught us because it largely went as expected: Penske was still good there, the Toyotas were still strong and Hendrick Motorsports was a bit off from where they wanted to be. Those are typical Phoenix results, regardless of the increased horsepower. But if anything, perhaps it showed that the usual suspects will still be in contention, and it reaffirmed that Tyler Reddick and 23XI Racing are in a good place to start the season. We’ll get a lot more information about the haves and have-nots by the checkered flag this week, since it’s the first intermediate track of the season.

Jordan: Let’s save the applause, as picking Blaney to win at Phoenix is not exactly a stretch considering how strong he runs there. That track — and really any short, flat oval — is the stronghold for Team Penske, where, barring something going awry, Blaney and Logano are almost certainly going to be in contention. But success at Phoenix is not a snapshot of what is to unfold the rest of the season. Especially when it comes to an intermediate-sized track like Las Vegas, which has vastly different characteristics from Phoenix. This is a long way of saying there aren’t yet any defining trends to emerge as just about everything we thought going into the season remains unchanged: Hendrick, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske are the “Big Three,” 23XI Racing is knocking on the door and looking like a weekly threat, and the new championship format is reshifting how we view things on a week-to-week basis.

Alex Bowman continues to battle vertigo and isn’t planning to start this week. Can you lay out the scenario for playoff status when missing this many starts?

Jeff: Unfortunately, Bowman is already 77 points out of a Chase spot, and now with missing another race, he could be roughly 100 points out by next week — and that’s even if he’s healthy enough to return. You have to really feel for Bowman, who was already toward the bottom of the standings before his vertigo struck mid-race at Circuit of the Americas, and now the beginning of his season in a contract year has become a nightmare. The first priority is his health, and hopefully he can return soon and run competitively — regardless of the Chase situation, which seems like a long shot now unless he can win a few races upon his return.

Jordan: The unfortunate reality for Bowman is that he’s in a big points hole already, one that will only increase with each subsequent race he misses. But were he to return next week (Darlington) or even the week after (Martinsville), there is still time to salvage his season and maybe make a push for a Chase spot. Doing so, though, would require an elite level of performance where he would need to earn a massive amount of stage points accompanied by great finishes. It’s a tall task, one with little margin for error, but we have seen this from him and the No. 48 team at times. Now they just need to do it for a sustained period.

Who is already in a points hole, and who do you expect to dig out first or fastest?

Jeff: Chase Briscoe is in a 53-point hole when it comes to Chase eligibility and is 178 points out of the regular-season championship, which is fairly shocking for someone who was expected to contend for that crown. But on Thursday’s edition of my “Gluckcast” show, Briscoe said he still thinks he can win the regular season title if he’s able to run as well as that No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team should. He’s used up three mulligans in the first four races (only getting a single point in each), but at least he has a fast car that could win multiple times in the regular season. It seems almost certain he’ll still get up into a playoff spot; it’s just a matter of whether he can get a high enough seed to go on a run.

Jordan: Chase Briscoe is the slam-dunk answer. He and the No. 19 team have been fast every week, and with any luck, they’d be in a much better position than they’re in now. The thing Briscoe has working in his favor is that he is good on just about every style track, so if he can string together some top-10 finishes in the next few weeks, he will quickly shoot up the standings. On the side of the equation is the fact that he’s already had three poor finishes, so while he doesn’t need to be lights-out for the remaining 22 regular-season races, he doesn’t have a whole lot of wiggle room left should his bad luck not go away.

Who is your favorite to win on Sunday?

Jeff: Kyle Larson has been the best in the Next Gen car at Las Vegas, with his 595 more than double the next-closest driver (his Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron at 266). That said, this is the first true test for Chevrolet’s new body, and much depends on whether they all hit on the correct setup or not. If you think Hendrick will maximize the speed right off the bat in the first intermediate track with this new body, then pick Larson. If not, then go with a Toyota (they were four of the top five finishers last fall at this track) like Christopher Bell, who has four top-fives in his last six races there.

Jordan: Any one of the four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers would make for a good pick this week, but Bell and Denny Hamlin particularly stand out. Each typically performs well at Las Vegas — Hamlin won here last fall, and Bell should have at least one Las Vegas win on his resume, if not two. Toyota has come out of the gate strong, and the manufacturer’s fourth win in five races this season is very much on the table.

Who is a long shot you like?

Jeff: If the new Chevy body immediately finds speed, I don’t think it’s that far-fetched to think Vegas could be the first career win for Carson Hocevar. He got points in both stages for last year’s spring race (and was fifth in Stage 2), then was 10th in Stage 2 of last fall’s Vegas race. If Hendrick is fast, Spire should be fast — and Hocevar clearly has the speed to win a Cup race if he can put it all together. That’s not bad for +2800 odds.

Jordan: Austin Cindric (+6000) finished sixth and 11th in the two Las Vegas races last year, a pretty good record when trying to pick a long shot. And let’s not forget that his quasi-teammate, Josh Berry, won here last spring.