Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle sees Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM-T) remaining “well positioned in a challenging deal environment within the royalty/streaming sector, as embedded organic growth supports improved returns relative to peers.”

Updating his model to reflect last week’s release of fourth-quarter 2025, which topped the Street’s expectations (adjusted EBITDA of US$732.0-million versus the consensus estimate of US$655.3-million), as well as the reiterating of its 2026 guidance, Mr. Nagle said the long-term outlook for the Vancouver-based company did not change and its focus is now shifting to deleveraging.

“WPM ended Q4 with US$1.15-billion in cash, US$1.05-billion in working capital and no debt,” he said. “Following the previously announced US$4.3-billion acquisition of a silver stream on Antamina from BHP, we estimate US$2.25-billion in net debt (as of the end of Q1/26). We model US$2.1-billion of future capital commitments on previously negotiated acquisitions, funded from operating cash flow and available credit.

“Growth is supported by newly operating assets, including Blackwater, Mineral Park, Fenix, Hemlo, Goose and Platreef and importantly five development projects (Fenix, El Domo, Kurmuk and Koné, Curraghinalt) continue to advance towards production over the next 24 months, with implied returns of these streams well above those recently acquired in the market (Antamina, Hemlo and Spring Valley).”

After incorporating the quarterly results into his forecast, leading to minor changes to his near-term operating assumptions, Mr. Nagle raised his target for Wheaton shares to $245 from $240, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $244.18.

“Our Outperform rating is predicated on stable financial position and high-quality, low-cost long-life asset portfolio. … Our target has come up slightly as we have adjusted our estimates based on operator guidance leading to slight increase in 2026 estimates,” he explained.

Elsewhere, TD Cowen’s Derick Ma bumped his target to US$165 from US$164 with a “buy” rating.

“WPM described its opportunities pipeline as ‘extremely robust’, noted that there are no capital constraints on business, and it could comfortably fund a deal up to $3-billion,” said Mr. Ma. “$1-billion-plus transactions are still outliers in the royalty and streaming business. 48 per cent of announced deals over the past 24 months have been in the $100-300-million range.”

Following better-than-anticipated fourth-quarter results, TD Cowen analyst Michael Tupholme remains “constructive” on the outlook for Bird Construction Inc. (BDT-T), viewing the valuation of its shares as “attractive.”

“BDT expects double-digit year-over-year revenue growth in 2026, with Q1/26 growth relatively muted (i.e., impact of previously announced project delays), but revenue growth ramping up toward the end of Q2/26 and remaining robust through H2/26,” he said. “BDT remains confident oil sands project delays will subside as the year progresses due to clients’ regulatory compliance requirements. Further, BDT’s record combined backlog and a robust bidding environment across various sectors (i.e., defence, data centers, nuclear) support growth beyond 2026. BDT also reaffirmed its 2027 EBITDA margin target of 8 per cent (vs. 6.5-per-cent realized in 2025).

“Management noted that nuclear work currently represents 10 per cent of BDT’s overall revenue, and expects that exposure to increase over time. Bird highlighted that it has recently acquired the required certifications and licenses to deliver end-to-end nuclear work, and indicated that it could participate in some capacity in potential new-build nuclear reactor projects in Canada (i.e., Bruce C and Wesleyville). Notably, BDT is currently constructing a uranium testing facility built to the same nuclear-grade concrete and other specifications required for commercial SMRs and large-scale nuclear reactor projects.”

Also emphasizing the Mississauga-based company is currently tracking more than $20-billion in data centre opportunities and “sees momentum continuing to build through 2026,” Mr. Tupholme raised his target for its shares to $44 from $31 with a “buy” rating after introducing his 2027 estimates and noting the recent valuation pullback of its peers. The average target on the Street is $41.60.

“We continue to like Bird’s medium to long-term outlook,” he concluded. “Supported by its record backlog/ pending backlog, healthy demand across key target end-markets, expectations for margin improvement over time, and potential upside from acquisitions (such as BDT’s recently announced acquisition of FRPD), we are constructive on the company’s prospects as we look ahead. Further, we see the stock as offering attractive value at its current level.”

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Rob Mann thinks the momentum within Cardinal Energy Ltd.’s (CJ-T) thermal segment, particularly at its Reford 1 steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) oil project in Saskatchewan, “remains strong alongside positive early indicators at its recently sanctioned Reford 2 project.”

“This year marks the first full-year for the company to showcase the power of its thermal operations coupled with a low-decline conventional asset base, where we expect Cardinal will remain flexible throughout the year with respect to its drilling and completion activities contingent upon commodity price levels,” he said in a client note.

On March 12, the Calgary-based company reported “solid” fourth-quarter 2025 results, including a record 23,514 barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by a quicker-than-anticipated ramp-up at Reford. That led to full-year production that topped the high end of its guidance.

“As highlighted alongside the company’s fourth-quarter results, Cardinal’s Reford 1 SAGD project is currently producing above nameplate capacity at rates of more than 6,500 bbl/d (less than 2.5 times SOR) throughout the first-quarter of 2026,” said Mr. Mann. “The company also flagged a number of milestones at Reford 2 (4,250-6,500+ bbl/d capacity) following project sanctioning at the end of January, which included a fixed price contract with Propak Systems Ltd. for the central processing facility and initial well pad, representing about 60 per cent of the total forecasted project costs. While still early days, the company believes that its development planning is ahead of schedule when compared to the same stage of workflows at the beginning of Reford 1.”

The analyst also emphasized Cardinal maintained its 2026 guidance, which points to production of 25,000 to 25,500 boe/d in the context of $160-million in capital spending.

“Amid sustained elevated commodity prices, we would peg potential additional conventional asset expenditures in the $10-$15 million range in the second-half of the year as a possibility given that Cardinal’s budget was originally set under an assumption of U.S. $60/bbl WTI,” he added.

Maintaining his “outperform” rating for Cardinal shares, Mr. Mann raised his target to $11 from $9.50. The average is $10.

“Under current futures pricing, Cardinal is trading at a 2026E debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 4.5 times versus Canadian intermediate E&P peers at 5.2 times) and at a free cash flow yield (equity) of 14 per cent (vs. peers at 10 per cent). We believe that Cardinal should trade at an average valuation reflective of its steady operating performance, low-decline portfolio, and its long-term strategic shift toward thermal development, partially offset by modestly higher leverage and ongoing project execution risks.”

After “another difficult quarter” for Enghouse Systems Ltd. (ENGH-T) as “organic growth missed expectations, capital deployed remained light and profitability declined,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber expects the valuation for the Markham, Ont.-based software company to “remain pressured pending improved organic growth and/or capital deployed.”

On Friday, Enghouse shares dropped dropped 15.5 per cent after it saw revenue for its first quarter fall 3 per cent year-over-year to $120-million, falling below both Mr. Treiber’s $123-million estimate and the consensus of $125-million as negative organic growth offset contributions from recent acquisitions. With adjusted EBITDA sliding 5 per cent, IFRS earnings per share of 32 cents also fell short of projections (39 cents and 36 cents, respectively).

“We estimate that constant currency (CC) organic growth was negative 13 per cent Q1, falling short of the negative 12 per cent in our model and down from negative 11 per cent last quarter,” the analyst said. “Q1 organic growth is below Enghouse’s 10-year historical average of negative 5 per cent. Enghouse is seeing continued customer churn and procurement delays in light of macro uncertainty. Due to negative organic growth, maintenance revenue dropped 4 per cent year-over-year. Following Q1, our organic growth estimates move to negative 11 per cent FY26 and negative 7 per cent FY27, down from negative 9 per cent and negative 4.5 per cent previously.

“A ‘better than attractive’ M&A environment. Management sees a compelling M&A environment, with a large number of targets. However, due diligence is taking longer, as Enghouse is assessing AI risks. Acquisitions are Enghouse’s most accretive use of cash; we estimate every $100-million deployed on acquisitions to be 17-per-cent accretive to annual adj. EPS. Given the discounted valuation of the stock, management is allocating incremental capital to share buybacks as well.”

Seeing Enghouse “stuck waiting,” Mr. Treiber reduced his target to $20 from $22, which is the average, with a “sector perform” rating (unchanged).

“Capital deployed over the last several quarters has been light on both acquisitions and share buybacks; TTM [trailing 12-month] M&A is only 32 per cent of TTM FCF, while TTM buybacks is only 14 per cent,” he said. “With organic growth headwinds persisting, revenue, adj. EBITDA, FCF, and EPS have all declined on a TTM basis. While management dismisses the long-term disruption risk from AI, Enghouse’s negative growth is weighing on investor sentiment in a challenging software market. Enghouse is trading at 5.0 times NTM [next 12-month] EV/EBITDA, 11 times NTM P/E, 15-per-cent FCF yield, and 7.8 per-cent dividend yield, which are 10-year lows.

“Valuation may remain near trough levels. Given negative organic growth and poor sentiment for software stocks, we believe Enghouse’s valuation is likely to remain at trough levels.”

While his pricing survey “continues to show compelling value,” Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li warns Dollarama Inc.’s (DOL-T) fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release on March 24 is likely to reflect the impact of “an extra week last year, the shift of Halloween selling days to 3Q and unfavourable weather.”

He’s currently projected earnings per share of $1.40, unchanged from a year ago and a penny below the Street’s expectation. His 2-per-cent same-store sales growth estimate is notably under the consensus of 2.5 per cent and a drop from 4.9 per cent in fiscal 2025.

“Full-year SSSG is solid at 4.5 per cent,” he added. “Market conditions remain favourable as consumers stay value focused. Our latest pricing survey shows competition remains rational, with DOL maintaining compelling value. On a price-per-unit basis, DOL is 30–50 per cent lower than Walmart and Amazon. DOL’s compelling value and breadth of product offering should support solid traffic and moderate price increases.

“For Canada, we expect FY27 to be largely in line with our assumptions and consensus. We forecast SSSG of 3.5 per cent (vs 4.0-per-cent consensus), and a stable gross margin and SG&A rate. We expect solid Dollarcity earnings growth of 23 per cent year-over-year. We forecast $0.09 EPS dilution from Australia due to integration costs. This is likely higher than consensus and would explain our below-consensus FY27E EPS ($5.21 vs $5.27). However, we view the integration costs as temporary. While it is still early, we believe stores renovated to date are showing a meaningful lift in sales.”

Even though he reduced his revenue and earnings forecast through 2027, Mr. Li maintained his “buy” rating and $218 target for Dollarama shares. The average is $276.48.

“We believe its premium valuation reflects investor demand for safety and visible earnings growth, with upside from international expansion,” he said.

Elsewhere, RBC’s Irene Nattel kept an “outperform” rating and $225 target in a note titled DOL-ivering value: Operating discipline and agility underpin constructive outlook.

“Forecasting solid underlying FQ4 results although tear-over-year comparisons and KPIs distorted by calendar shifts, notably Halloween shift to FQ3 and an extra week in Q4/F25,” she said. Against the backdrop of global macro uncertainty, we reiterate our view that Dollarama’s demonstrated resilience and agility across cycles, sector- leading returns, and multi-geography long-term growth platforms are supportive of premium valuation.”

In other analyst actions:

* In a client report titled All eyes on Prairie Connector open season…, National Bank’s Patrick Kenny raised his South Bow Corp. (SOBO-N, SOBO-T) target by US$1 to US$30 with a “sector perform” rating. The average target is US$33.13.

“Combined with 15-20-per-cent unrisked upside to our valuation stemming from a successful Prairie Connector open season, we maintain our Sector Perform rating, while continuing to recommend a better entry point closer to our US$30 target price – i.e., acquiring the Pacific Connector option value for free,” said Mr. Kenny.

* Stifel’s Ian Gillies raised his Mattr Ltd. (MATR-T) target to $8.75 from $8, which is the average, with a “hold” rating, while ATB Cormark’s Tim Monachello bumped his target to $9.50 from $9 with a “sector perform” rating

“MATR posted a solid 4Q25, while our outlook is unchanged in 2026E,” Mr. Gillies said. “We believe the 9-per-cent intraday rise in the share price is a relief rally after a number of challenging quarters. There are several cross currents that continue to impact the business. Higher oil, gold and copper prices could positively impact volumes for 25 per cent of the business tied to these commodities. However, a further slowdown in the North American manufacturing economy could negatively impact demand for other parts of ConnTech as well as impact input costs. Net/net, our 26E and 27E EBITDA are lower by 3.4 per cent/2.8 per cent. We are bumping up target multiples to 17.0 times P/E and 6.5 times EV/EBITDA, as we try to reflect the potential upside from higher commodity related activity and the torque that will create on the equity given the elevated debt metrics. ”