Why Caleb Durbin Trade Will End Up Being Best Move Red Sox Made This Offseason originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Boston Red Sox lost Alex Bregman in free agency to the Chicago Cubs, but quickly traded for Caleb Durbin to replace him.
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The Milwaukee Brewers traded for Durbin last offseason, and he ended up becoming the team’s starting third baseman. Durbin finished third in the National League Rookie of the Year race and was a great player for the Brewers. However, the Brewers shockingly decided to deal him to the Red Sox.
Durbin slashed .256/.334/.387 for the Brewers and hit 11 home runs. He led the National League in hit by pitches, despite playing just 136 games. While he is a solid replacement for Bregman, he has the potential to put up monster numbers at Fenway Park.
Durbin, a right-handed hitter, pulls the ball in the air at a 20.4% rate, among the best in baseball. That ability, paired with the Green Monster, could lead to more home runs and doubles for Durbin. Additionally, 41.3% of his batted balls were pulled. Durbin could end up being a doubles machine for the Red Sox. He had plenty of fly balls last season that would bang off the wall in left field in Boston.
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He is pretty much a lock to be the team’s starting third baseman, and Baseball Savant data indicates that his home run numbers could take a slight dip after leaving American Family Field. However, he has all the tools to get even better this season, and he brings things to the table the Red Sox need.
He is the 98th percentile for strikeout rate, 96th percentile for whiff rate and 95th percentile for squared up rate. The Red Sox struck out more than 22 other teams last season. Durbin will put the ball in play and help the Red Sox offense.
Durbin had a strong regular season, but was even better in the postseason. He slashed .276/.364/.414 slash line in nine postseason games. He is a strong candidate to take a jump in Year 2 and could end up becoming a focal point of the Red Sox’s offense. His ability to steal bases is another part of his game that the Red Sox could utilize.
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The Red Sox also added Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo and Ranger Suárez as well this offseason. All of them could play big roles for the Red Sox, but Durbin is a dark horse to be the best addition.