Vancouver Canucks fans know the pain of the draft lottery all too well.
The franchise was cursed from day one, losing the draft lottery back in 1970 before they ever played a game.
And here we are, 56 years later, and the Canucks are still waiting for their first-ever number-one draft selection.
Well, if there’s a year for the Canucks to win, this would be the one.
The Canucks have virtually locked up last place in the NHL standings, with the 31st-place Calgary Flames being 11 points ahead of them. That gives Vancouver 25.1 per cent odds of drafting first overall.
If they do win the lottery for the first time in franchise history, they’ll have a choice between two potential stars.
But which player makes the most sense to take first overall?
The case for Stenberg
There might not be an organization in the NHL with a stronger affinity for Swedish hockey players.
From Patrick Sundstrom to Markus Naslund, the Sedin twins, Mattias Ohlund, and even Elias Pettersson before his precipitous downfall, the Canucks have long rostered some of the most impactful Swedish players in NHL history.
Whether he joins the Canucks or not, Ivar Stenberg is certainly on the verge of joining the club of highly impactful Swedish NHLers.
The 18-year-old just finished his SHL season with the second-most points by a draft-eligible player in league history, trailing only Daniel Sedin.
Ivar Stenberg finishes with the 2nd highest P/GP (min 10 GP) by a draft-eligible player in SHL/SEL history. #NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/l5jikn0DCT
— Stat Boy Steven 🇳🇱🇮🇪 (@StatBoy_Steven) March 14, 2026
Not only has his production been eye-catching, but he led Sweden in points at the World Juniors, helping them win gold for the first time in 14 years.
Ivar Stenberg with a dominant O-zone sequence leading to a Sascha Boumedienne goal pic.twitter.com/w6AWxAlIDA
— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 2, 2026
The puck skills are clearly high-end among his age group. And, while he does have a good shot, his skill set is more that of a playmaking winger.
While physicality isn’t his calling card, like another former elite Swedish prospect, Peter Forsberg, he does have it in his toolkit.
Ivar Stenberg with a big reverse hit 😳 pic.twitter.com/zuQJcrBZ9I
— BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) January 4, 2026
Did we mention he’s Swedish?
Well, if he were to join the Canucks, he would have a pretty good resource in Vancouver with the Sedin twins
“When I was young, I really liked the Sedin twins,” Stenberg said this week on Donnie and Dhali.
Right now, he’s tracking to have an NHL career that could be just as impactful.
The case for McKenna
Stenberg would be a massive get for any NHL team lucky enough to snag a top-two pick.
But if teams are truly shooting for the player with the best chance of being a superstar, the choice has to be Gavin McKenna.
Both Stenberg and McKenna project to be elite playmakers; however, the Yukon-native should be considered a step above his Swedish counterpart.
Much of the tentativeness on McKenna’s draft stock was baked into his slow start in the NCAA, coupled with a World Juniors showing where he led the tournament in scoring, but also had some frustrating moments at both ends of the ice.
However, if there’s one thing McKenna has consistently done, it’s find a way to adapt.
He came back from the World Juniors and began posting points in big numbers at the NCAA level. His production on the year (1.5 points per game) is now comparable to that of Logan Cooley (1.53 points per game), but a tier below the likes of Macklin Celebrini (1.68), Adam Fantilli (1.8), and Jack Eichel (1.77).
If he figured things out earlier in the season, there likely wouldn’t be a question about his draft stock.
Even at the World Juniors, McKenna ended on a high with four points in the Bronze Medal Game. Throughout the highs and lows, his incredible puck skills were on display.
GAVIN MCKENNA, BEHAVE 🤯
THAT’S THE HAT-TRICK, AND IT’S 7-1 CANADA 🇨🇦 #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/xwtP3Ko0P9
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) December 30, 2025
McKenna’s skills are hard to ignore. He consistently slows the game down to his pace, finding his teammates with ease all over the ice.
Gavin McKenna is so good. The way this kid slows the game down is nuts. You play at his speed pic.twitter.com/Rn2pNtjRxJ
— Mike Grinnell (@MikeGrinnell_) March 12, 2026
He also has the ability to create plays out of nothing.
Gavin McKenna is still going 1st pic.twitter.com/G2fEX7vdje
— World Hockey Report (@worldhockeyrpt) January 24, 2026
It’s easy for fans and pundits to watch these highlights and think, how can he not go first overall?
But there’s a reason scouts have been so divided throughout the year.
McKenna may have the edge in terms of skating and playmaking, but Stenberg’s exceptional offensive skills are hard to ignore. He combines it with a compete level that appears to be higher than McKenna’s, and the 5-foot-11, 180-pound forward has also been more successful at winning puck battles on the wall.
But typically, when drafting first overall, you bet on elite talent.
McKenna still holds the draft minus-two record for most points in a CHL season, ahead of both Connor Bedard and Connor McDavid. While it took some time in the NCAA, those elite skills have been on display.
Other dynamic forwards who were selected first overall, like Patrick Kane, weren’t lauded for being defensive stalwarts, and that hardly seemed to matter.
It’s easy to see the same thing happen with McKenna.
While the debate between these players is closer than most hockey fans in Vancouver want to believe, passing on McKenna does seem implausible for a Canucks team that so desperately lacks elite talent.