Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Goodyear 400 at Darlington.
The 750-horsepower package runs at Darlington for the first time Sunday. Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have both said publicly this week that tire falloff could make it one of the most chaotic races of the season. Eight drivers have combined to win every Gen 7 race at this track. The market knows what it’s doing. So does Darlington.
Hamlin won this race a year ago. He has four top-10 finishes in his last four Darlington starts. He led 278 laps in eight Gen 7 starts at this track and gets measurably stronger as races go on. That closing style is not a trait — it’s a weapon, and it’s exactly what the 750-horsepower package rewards.
Hamlin is the favorite for good reason. The market opened him at +550 because he is the defending winner, the most consistent Darlington finisher in the field, and the driver most likely to turn tire preservation into a race win. At Las Vegas last week, he absorbed a pit road penalty, dropped back, and still led 134 laps to win the first intermediate race of 2026. He had more in reserve than the car needed. Darlington will ask more of everyone. Hamlin is built for what Sunday is about to become. The number is short but the case is clean.
Reddick has five top-five finishes in eight Gen 7 Darlington starts. He has led 320 laps at this track, among the most of any driver in the Gen 7 era. He leads the points standings by 60 points. He has finished second here three times without winning. That is the one knock — Reddick keeps coming close and leaving empty-handed.
He is not going to keep losing at Darlington. The talent, the car, the team, and the track history all point to a win that is overdue. At +650, Reddick is priced essentially the same as the field favorite in Hamlin — the market sees them as equals. The data on long-run pace says Reddick’s car gets faster as tires wear, not slower. Phoenix confirmed that the 23XI organization is as good as anyone right now. This is the week he stops finishing second.
Two wins at Darlington in the Gen 7 era. Both came in different conditions, different packages, different situations — but the result was the same both times. No other active driver in this field has won here more than once in the Gen 7 car. Briscoe has won twice.
The 750-horsepower package is the argument for Briscoe this week. Nobody in this field is better at taking care of tires deep in a run at Darlington. That’s what four years of data says. His 2025 fall win was built entirely on tire management — he led 309 laps and made it look routine because he drove the track instead of fighting it. The question entering this week was whether the No. 19 Toyota had turned the corner after three ugly finishes to start 2026. His Las Vegas run answered that — Chase Briscoe finished eighth and showed legitimate speed. +850 for a two-time winner at this specific track with the skill set Sunday demands most. This is the play.