Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs

From Wednesday against Washington until Tuesday against Detroit, the Sens are in the midst of a stretch of game where they play five games in seven nights. Every game is their playoffs, and I’d say the margins here are even more intense, trying to leapfrog at least two more teams without much rest between games.

Toronto has a chance to play spoiler two more times this season, tonight and the last game of the season. The Sens should’ve been 2-0 against their Ontarian rivals, but December 27th’s emotional 7-5 loss represents a turning point in the season for the team, and for Linus Ullmark. A convincing win tonight coupled with a non-overtime game between Boston and Detroit will see the Senators close their gap in the standings to just three points.

Sens lineup

As a reminder, here’s how Ottawa lined up against the Islanders. We’ll see if James Reimer gets another start against one of his former teams or if Linus Ullmark returns after saving 21 of 23 against Toronto at the end of February:

Your projected lines for tonight’s matchup against the Islanders 👊

Show us your Tim Hortons Hockey Challenge picks for tonight for a chance to win great prizes courtesy of @TimHortons! pic.twitter.com/OCLuG9YJMI

— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) March 19, 2026
Leafs lineup

Here’s how the Leafs lined up last time out against Carolina, with Easton Cowan and Nick Robertson flanking Tavares, and Knies and Nylander flanking Domi. We expect to see Anthony Stolarz in net, though no goaltender has been formally announced yet.

Game notesI knew that there was a statistical disparity between these two teams, but I did not expect that these two teams would be ranked 1st and 32nd in shots against per game, and top-five/bottom-five in both shot attempts (Corsi%) and expected goals (xG%). Every day, I dream of a world where Toronto’s loss to Ottawa in game seven led to a season like this from our rivals, but I’ll still enjoy this moment as best as I can. Speaking of statistical disparities, look at this stat (via Sportsnet) about the Leafs goaltenders: Goalies % of Starts With SV% of .900 or Higher in 2025-26 – Joseph Woll – 71.9% (23/32), Anthony Stolarz – 38.1% (8/21). Woll helped the Leafs grab a point in an overtime loss to Carolina yesterday, so we’ll see how Stolarz fares tonight. The Leafs are missing a top defender (Tanev) and forward (Matthews) for the rest of the season, which have elevated some other players in the lineup as a result. Case in point? Nick Robertson, who usually averages third- or fourth-line minutes, has been getting top-six minutes alongside John Tavares. Robertson, Maccelli, and Quillan are the team’s three RFAs this offseason, and while I can see a world where none of them will be back, the amount of roster turnover will also be set by the team’s direction as a whole this offseason – blow it up or re-tool and try again? While there’s been plenty of discourse about Travis Green liking all four of his lines, I can’t help but think that there are some games – including tonight against Toronto and Monday against the Rangers – where an additional injection of offence via Stephen Halliday might be helpful, especially while the Sens are without Jake Sanderson. If Green is worried about the details of his game (which I wouldn’t be), playing him against teams with clearly worse depth is one way to allow for a matchup advantage, without the accompanying defensive risk.

It’s a 7:00pm ET start on CBC, Sportsnet, and TVA Sports.

Statistics

Game 69SenatorsLeafs
Category#Rank#Rank
Goals/GP3.329th3.1116th
Goals against/GP3.120th3.4430th
Shots/GP28.89th27.222nd
Shots against/GP24.21st32.332nd
Powerplay %22.89th19.220th
Penalty Kill %74.130th82.95th
Corsi % (5v5 SVA)53.844th44.4432nd
xGF% (5v5 SVA)55.383rd46.1328th

SenatorsLeafs
CategoryPlayer#Player#
GoalsStützle31Matthews27
AssistsStützle40Nylander40
PointsStützle71Nylander64
ShotsTkachuk186Matthews227
TOI/GPSanderson24:49Rielly21:15