Ontario and B.C. stay stuck on the sidelines
Economist Rishi Sondhi said it would likely take most of 2026 for activity to claw back first‑quarter losses as buyers remained hemmed in by a soft economy and cost‑of‑living strain.
“While severe weather in Central and Atlantic Canada weighed on activity early in the year, weakness was also evident in B.C., where conditions were more temperate,” he said.
Ontario and British Columbia took the steepest downgrades. TD now expects transactions to fall 3.2% in Ontario and 0.2% in B.C., with prices slipping 4% and 1.2% respectively, as strained affordability and falling prices kept many households “waiting for a clearer bottom,” the report said.
Pent‑up demand in those provinces “has yet to re‑emerge as quickly as previously expected,” Sondhi said, adding that further price declines might be needed to unlock it.
Oil‑producing regions and Prairies offer rare bright spots
Sondhi highlighted a split emerging across the country. In the Prairies, tighter starting conditions in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and still‑decent affordability are expected to support firmer gains, with Alberta’s market rebalancing as new supply meets normalized demand.