The UFC returns to Seattle for the fifth time in the promotion’s history Saturday for a UFC Fight Night card headlined by former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya facing prospect Joe Pyfer in the main event. The main card is set for 8 p.m. ET from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle and will be broadcast on Paramount+.

Adesanya (24-5), who made five title defenses as champion, is widely considered the second-best middleweight the promotion has ever seen, behind the iconic Anderson Silva. Even so, it has been a rapid fall from grace for the 36-year-old, who has lost four of his past five fights, with three of those defeats coming by stoppage. He was also on the short end of one of the biggest upsets in UFC title-fight history when he lost his belt to Sean Strickland as around a -900 favorite in September 2023.

Pyfer (15-3), 29, first came to public view with his appearance on the popular UFC recruiting program, “Dana White’s Contender Series.” The power puncher has gone 6-1 in the promotion but lost to veteran contender Jack Hermansson by decision in February 2024 in his only other headlining performance.

Even so, the power-punching Pyfer, who is ranked No. 14, has an opportunity to climb the rankings and establish himself as a legitimate title contender should he prevail against the No. 4-ranked Adesanya.

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The main event provides some intrigue both contextually and stylistically. For context, it is what’s becoming the standard litmus test for a rising prospect to take a major step up in competition by facing a former title contender or champion, who can at least temporarily hold onto his upper-tier standing with the promotion should he turn back the younger fighter. 

We’ve witnessed this specific context in numerous UFC Fight Night main events over the past few years, and the proven veteran has generally gotten the better of the newcomer. One such instance came in February, when Strickland (+220) somewhat easily dispatched prospect Anthony Hernandez (-300), who had won eight consecutive fights before facing his first top-five opponent. We called Strickland to win in this space, and he came through with a third-round knockout.  

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Stylistically, the matchup could be revelatory as Pyfer, who’s primarily known for his power striking, goes up against the much more versatile Adesanya, whose chin has been a question mark of late. In his last outing, Adesanya was knocked out by No. 2-ranked Nassourdine Imavov, who isn’t known for devastating power.

In other words, if Adesanya’s durability is as compromised as many observers suspect, he could be in for yet another embarrassing stoppage loss if Pyfer connects. But if Adesanya, who hasn’t fought in 14 months, presents a reasonable facsimile of his former self, he should hold a decisive edge in the skill department and have an advantage as the fight wears on over Pyfer, who has struggled with endurance in previous fights.

Adesanya is a -140 favorite (risk $140 to win $100), while Pyfer is priced at +120 in the latest MMA odds for UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer. In the co-main event, Maycee Barber (-170) faces Alexa Grasso (+140) in a women’s flyweight bout that could see a title shot go to the winner.

Below, we give our top betting leans for UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer.

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UFC Fight Night selections

Adesanya (-140) vs. Pyfer (+120): It’s both worth noting and a word of caution that the MMA betting odds on Adesanya have seen a similar trajectory in his past two outings. His fights against Imavov and Dricus du Plessis opened around pick’em, only to see Adesanya close as a favorite in the -150 range as bettors couldn’t resist the thin price on the former champion. However, he lost both in decisive fashion. The same has happened in this matchup, with some outlets even opening Pyfer as a slight favorite, only to see Adesanya emerge as the modest chalk. We agree with this move, because we believe Pyfer is at least a full tier below Adesanya’s previous opponents and this is a favorable matchup for the former champion. We’ll lay the small price with the concession that, should he end up knocked out again, it might be time for Adesanya to consider retirement.  

Kyle Nelson (+140) vs. Terrance McKinney (-170): McKinney has often been referred to as the “The Evel Knievel of the UFC” because of his reckless style that has seen all 11 of UFC fights completed within the first two rounds, with McKinney posting a 6-5 record. Win or lose, his fights tend to be a blur of fan-friendly fury for as long as they last. His career trajectory suggests he can’t be trusted against quality opponents, and we will grab the underdog value on Nelson, a well-rounded Canadian who has won four of his past five. 

Ricky Simon (-155) vs. Adrian Yanez (+130): Both Simon and Yanez were once considered among the bantamweight division’s top prospects before falling on hard times against upper-echelon opposition. Now, both are clinging to relevancy in their battle on the preliminary card. We’ll go with the more versatile Simon, who also will have the home crowd on his side as he grew up in nearby Vancouver, Wash. 

Josh Nagel is the combat sports editor for Sportline and its lead boxing analyst. His 2025 boxing selections netted a profit of more than $2,500 for SportsLine members. Check out SportsLine here to see more of his analysis and predictions.