Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions

RBC’s Head of Global Energy Research Greg Pardy said Suncor Energy Inc.’s (SU-T) Investor Day event on Tuesday featured a “series of energizing and concise presentations” that “conveyed the completion of its corporate transformation, set forth a credibly ambitious 3-year strategic plan and shone a bright light on the depth of its oil sands resources.”

In a client report released before the bell titled Right On the Numbers, he reaffirmed the Calgary-based company has favorite integrated energy company in Canada and its spot on the firm’s “Global Energy Best Ideas list.”

Suncor aims to boost production, increase cash flow with new three-year goals

“Suncor Energy’s new improvement plan (2025-28) is aimed at $2 billion in incremental mid-cycle free funds flow supported by additional upstream production of 100,000 barrels per day, a 10 per cent uplift in its refinery capacity to 511,000 bbl/d, and a US$5/bbl reduction in its corporate WTI break-even to US$38,” he explained. “The company revealed an incremental 11 billion barrels of contingent oil sands resources, bringing the total to 30 billion barrels, and framed 400,000 bbl/d of future productive capacity at an average capital efficiency metric of $30,000/bbl/d.

“What stood out most to us from the session is two-fold. The first revolves around the degree to which Suncor’s leadership team recognizes that job one is to control its controllables, ‘not get ahead of its headlights,’ and maintain a high degree of shareholder alignment, come what may. The second involves Slide 55 in its presentation which illustrates the bridge in its incremental mid-cycle free funds flow growth of $2 billion. This chart noticeably factors in circa $1 billion in headwinds, not unlike the company’s 2024 Business Update deck. What Slide 55 suggests to us is that Suncor’s new 3-year plan is credible and potentially conservative.”

Mr. Pardy also applauded Suncor’s announcement of “enhanced” shareholder returns with a commitment to increase its share buybacks by 27 per cent ($75-million) to $350-million per month commencing Wednesday (April 1). That equates to approximately $4.2-billion on an annualized basis.

Reaffirming his “outperform recommendation” on Suncor, Mr. Pardy boosted his one-year target price to $89 from $75. The average target on the Street is $83.55, according to LSEG data.

“Under prevailing futures commodity prices, Suncor is trading at a 2026 free cash flow yield (market cap) of 13 per cent (vs. our global peer group average of 10 per cent) and a debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 5.3 times (vs. our peer group avg. of 6.6 times),” he said. “We believe that Suncor should command a premium valuation vis-à-vis our global peer group given its shareholder alignment, physical integration, abundant resource base, impressive upstream-downstream operating performance, free cash flow generation, solid balance sheet, attractive shareholder returns and well-defined plans to address its Base Mine depletion in the coming years.”

Elsewhere, ATB Cormark Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke upgraded Suncor to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a $104 target, rising from $95, seeing “upstream capital discipline, downstream advantages.”

“While admittedly we missed the first phase of the turnaround story since 2024, SU has largely performed in line with peers since the start of the Iranian conflict, and we believe the investor day outlook clearly positions the equity with further long-term capacity to create incremental shareholder value. Further, the key perceived risk to oil stocks today remains an easing of global tensions and resulting degradation in crude oil prices; under this scenario, given the capital structure strength and flexibility, return of capital profile and specific product exposures (particularly to diesel), we believe that SU would continue to outperform and as a result we are upgrading our rating to Outperform,” said Mr. O’Rourke.

Meanwhile, analysts making target revisions include:

* Scotia’s Kevin Fisk to $85 from $80 with a “sector perform” rating.

“SU’s investor day outlined its three-year free cash flow growth targets, illustrated the company’s capital efficient plans to keep the Base Plant upgraders utilized, and highlighted the company’s strong shareholder return profile. The $2-billion free cash flow growth target was in line with our expectations and the capital efficiencies SU is projecting for its in situ growth projects are better than we expected. Management also highlighted the company’s deep inventory of 2P reserves and contingent resources. We have increased our target prices to $85/sh to reflect SU’s enhanced free cash flow profile,” said Mr. Fisk.

* TD Cowen’s Menno Hulshof to $91 from $81 with a “buy” rating.

“Investor Day arguably reset the bull case and created strong incentive for investors to stick with the name. US$38/bbl WTI breakeven target, immediate transition to $350-million/month of buybacks, $2-billion incremental FFF through 2028 underpin durable returns. 60-per-cent increase to outdated (2014) contingent resource estimate creates a century of optionality. Execution, not opportunity, remains the swing factor,” said Mr. Hulshof.

* BMO’s Randy Ollenberger to $100 from $85 with an “outperform” rating.

“Suncor’s investor day focused on the company’s plans to further reduce its breakeven oil price, higher asset capacity, as well as the immense size of its asset base and long-term in-situ development potential,” he said. “Taken together these factors should drive stronger financial results and higher returns on capital that, in turn, should support a further multiple expansion.”

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Andrew Wong thinks Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T) is “taking the necessary steps to improve the company’s financial condition and operations, with a major focus on cash generation.”

“While we anticipate improved cash generation starting in 2026, we expect this will be largely directed to de-levering in the near-term,” he added. “We believe if Ag Growth can execute this transition, the company will be in a better position to benefit from the next ag up-cycle.”

In a client note released following Monday’s announcement of the resignation of Chief Financial Officer Jim Rudyk, Mr. Wong said the Winnipeg-based company leadership “refresh” is likely turning the focus to its financial discipline.

“Ag Growth is undergoing a leadership transition focusing on streamlining and simplifying the business, refocusing on customer relationships, and improving financials by reducing debt and increasing cash flow,” he said. “We think this re-prioritization on financial discipline is a necessary pivot given the company’s high debt burden and challenged cash generation, and if executed well could put the company in a much healthier position to take advantage of the next ag up-cycle.”

For 2026, Mr. Wong anticipates Ag Growth will see a decline in sale as its Farm segment stabilizes and its Commercial business “pivots” away from its emphasis on bigger projects.

“Ag Growth saw higher Q4 U.S. Farm segment sales, which is a potential early sign of improving demand as inventories have declined, but Canadian Farm sales were down sharply as the impact from ag market pressures has lagged the U.S. – we see overall Farm sales stabilizing in 2026, but with limited upside until ag market conditions improve,” he added.” Commercial sales were up significantly in 2025 (up 34 per cent) on Brazil big project revenues, but the company is pivoting away from these projects to focus on improving cash generation, which could return Commercial sales to near pre-2025 ($700-millionaverage from 2022-2024).

“Margins likely remain under pressure, before stabilizing in 2027: Ag Growth has outlined plans to reduce SG&A costs, but the savings may not be realized until H2/26. Given sales will likely be down year/year and it will take time to reduce SG&A, we anticipate Ag Growth’s EBITDA margin down in 2026 at 13 per cent vs. 2025 at 14 per cent. We assume long-term EBITDA margins return to 15 per cent, in-line with the 2017-2022 average.”

After lowering his 2026 and 2027 earnings projections, Mr. Wong cut his target for Ag Growth shares to $20 from $30, keeping a “sector perform” rating, expecting cash generation and debt reduction to be “a major focus.” The average target on the Street is $28.71.

“We think the broader company changes (SG&A savings, ERP termination, dividend suspension, big projects pivot) should result in better cash generation going forward,” he explained. “We forecast $45-million/$68-million FCF in 2026/2027, as monetization of receivables helps 2026 cash generation and lower costs helps 2027. We expect cash flow will primarily be used to pay down debt in the near-term.”

National Bank Financial analyst Travis Wood sees Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR-T) trading at a “meaningful” discount to its oil sands peers, which he expect to narrow as “management executes on its plan and proves the portfolio’s quality.”

In a client report released Wednesday titled The Grass is Now Greener, he initiated coverage of the Calgary-based company with an “outperform” rating, touting “a robust level-loaded drilling program, a clean slate on execution (boiler outage and sulphur emission issues have been rectified; more details on these challenges within the report) and a simplified strategy helping narrow the focus of the organization on long-cycle execution and utilizing existing capacity more efficiently.”

“Greenfire Resources Ltd. is an intermediate oil sands producer with two long-life heavy oil development opportunities in the Athabasca region that provide investors with exposure to a twopronged investment thesis (HO-GARP part deux!),” said Mr. Wood. “The concentrated portfolio offers plenty of low decline, capital efficient growth opportunities with cost and steam-oil ratio (SOR) compression expected to support margin expansion through our forecast period. A renewed focus on execution and optimization of unutilized infrastructure following a significant management shakeup leaves the pure-play oil sands company at a relative discount to the peer group, which we see as an opportunity for those investors looking to capture small cap value and growth as the team delivers on improved execution.

“GFR trades at a 2.4 turn discount to the peer group (2027 estimated EV/DACF). The growth capital deployed in 2026 should help reset Greenfire’s development plans, with tailwinds to follow as capital efficient production comes online later this year, into 2027. This year, a 14 well-pair pad will begin to add production in Q4, followed by a focused drill-to-fill strategy into 2027 and beyond in order to capture 50 per cent of the spare capacity across the asset base (the team plans to drill 25 new well-pairs across three SAGD pads over the next 12 months). Combined, ramping production while facilities are optimized should begin to be captured in improving operating costs and expanding margins, resulting in a compelling FCF outlook following a heavy growth capital phase in 2026 (2027 estimated FCF of over $150 million, or a 14-per-cent yield).

Also emphasizing its “unique” ownership structure with the Waterous Energy Fund owning around 72 per cent of the company and seeing its “recapitalized business de-risks the equity and creates long-term value for shareholder,” he set a Street-high target of $12.50, pointing to an estimated total return of 37.2 per cent. The average target is now $9.85.

While acknowledging his initiation of coverage of NTG Clarity Networks Inc. (NCI-X) “comes at a more complicated moment in the story than would have been the case a quarter ago,” Ventum Capital Markets analyst Amr Ezzat thinks the Street continues to undervalue the potential of the “Canada-listed, Egypt-executed, Saudi-embedded” company, leading him to give it a “buy” recommendation.

“NTG is a differentiated digital transformation services provider with deep operating roots in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” he said. “With more than 95 per cent of revenue sourced from Tier 1 Saudi clients, the Company delivers custom software development, systems integration, testing, and managed IT services to organizations across telecom, financial services, and government. Its operating model, pairing Arabic-speaking engineering talent in Egypt with local commercial and delivery presence in Saudi Arabia, creates a regional positioning that we believe is difficult to replicate.”

“NTG’s Q3/25 results were disappointing, with management lowering its EBITDA margin guidance after hiring ahead of contract signings that took longer than expected to close. While the quarter clearly reset investor confidence, we do not believe it undermines the broader demand backdrop or NTG’s strategic positioning in one of the more active digital transformation markets in the region. With expectations now recalibrated, we believe the stock is better positioned to reflect a more balanced underwriting of both the near-term execution risk and the longer-term opportunity.”

In a client report titled A Delivery Engine Taking Shape, Mr. Ezzat emphasized the Markham, Ont.-based company is “exposed to real and durable demand in Saudi Arabia.”

“The more important question is whether Q3 reflected a temporary mismatch between delivery capacity and revenue conversion, or a more structural issue around forecasting discipline and utilization management,” he added. “At this stage, we lean toward the former, though we expect management will need to re-establish credibility through consistent execution over the coming quarters. Management was clear that the margin shortfall was driven primarily by hiring ahead of anticipated contracts, not by deterioration in client demand, and the Company maintained its revenue outlook while continuing to point to a meaningful backlog and active pipeline. That does not excuse the quarter, but it does help frame what comes next. If backlog conversion improves and recently added capacity is absorbed, the current earnings pressure should prove temporary. In that scenario, today’s valuation leaves room for meaningful upside.”

Mr. Ezzat set a target for NTG shares of $2, implying 122-per-cent upside from current levels. The average on the Street is $2.50.

“We benchmark NTG Clarity to two sets of IT Services peers – Global IT Services Giants and Global IT Services Middleweights,” he explained. “While the former provides context on scale, we believe the Middleweight cohort offers a more appropriate benchmark for NTG given its size, regional focus, and business mix. Despite Street estimates calling for 2Y forward sales growth of 31.5 per cent – materially above the Global IT Services Middleweight median of 1.4 per cent – NTG trades at just 3.1 times EV/NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA, implying a 62.0-per-cent discount to the peer median of 8.1 times. We view this as a mispricing relative to NTG’s embedded growth exposure and expanding footprint in Saudi Arabia’s digital modernization agenda.”

In response to a reset of its Kamoa Kakula Copper Complex mine plan, which saw it reduce its 2026/2027 production guidance by 23 per cent, a pair of analysts on the Street downgrade Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T).

Raymond James’ Judith Elliott moved her rating to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $17 target, falling from $23. The average on the Street is $18.86.

“Overall, the revised 2026/2027 operating guidance (which was reiterated Feb/2026) and medium term (2028+) operating outlook outline lower production and higher costs than recent guidance, and a longer ramp up to steady state throughput of 17 Mtpa,” she said. “The updated R&R include lower copper grades and contained copper, reflecting more conservative mining assumptions.

“We are downgrading our rating to Market Perform from Outperform based on the disappointing updated mine plan relative to the previous plan and multi-year guidance and considering valuation is not necessarily inexpensive to peers.”

Elsewhere, Scotia Capital’s Orest Wowkodaw moved the miner to “sector perform” from “outperform” with a $14.50 target, down from $19.

“Given the further 14-per-cent reduction in our 10-per-cent NAVPS estimate we view the update as negative,“ said Mr. Wowkodaw. ”While the more conservative rehabilitation/recovery approach at the operation appears prudent, the sudden change in strategy is a surprising development, and we would not be surprised to see the shares down 10-20 per cent on this update.

“Based on the relatively modest implied return to our markedly lower 12-month target of $14.50 per share (vs. $19.00 previously) and a further 12-month delay in LOM operating visibility (this update was not the clearing event we had been anticipating), we are lowering our investment rating on IVN shares to Sector Perform (from Sector Outperform).”

Others making target revisions include:

* TD Cowen’s Craig Hutchison to $13 from $19 with a “buy” rating.

“IVN has sharply reduced its short-term and near-term production forecasts after releasing an updated technical report including revised reserves and resources for Kamoa Kakula. While we anticipated a possible decrease in output around 2028, we did not foresee such significant cuts to the recent 2026 and 2027 production guidance. We believe IVN shares could materially underperform today,” said Mr. Hutchison.

* Stifel’s Ralph Profiti to $15 from $22 with a “buy” rating.

“IVN presented a material reset of the Kakula mine plan that included a larger than expected downgrade to short-term (2026-2027) production guidance at higher C1 cash costs, 500+Ktpa of steady-state copper production targeted in 2028, and an 8-per-cent reduction in Indicated Mineral Resources driven by depletion and removal of the Mature Extraction Zone (Inferred tonnes and grade were boosted due to reclassification of 0.9Mt Cu at 3.5-per-cent Cu in Kakula Inferred Zone Pillars). Based on management’s technical presentation, we are confident that safe long-term access around the orebody periphery and more conservative advanced rates will be successful in reducing geotechnical risks,” said Mr. Profiti.

* BMO’s Andrew Mikitchook to $16 from $23 with an “outperform” rating.

“In our opinion the overnight reserve update for Kakula/Kamoa came in below both the market’s and our expectations. The largest impact on valuations comes from a 28-per-cent decrease in reserve grade, mostly driven by mine sequence changes and lowering cutoff grades. … Looking ahead we expect the market to be watching for performance improvements metrics for Kakula that are, in our opinion, more likely in H2 than H1,” he said.

National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne sees Lycos Energy Inc. (LCX-X) $49.7-million merger with Mahikan Oil Corp. as “transformational” as it compounds its land and inventory prospects in the Mannville stack in Eastern Alberta and Western Saskatchewan with “exposure to a meaningful opportunity for scalable production and cash flow growth through large oil in place resources.”

Resuming coverage of the Calgary-based company following the close of the deal with Mahikan, which was privately owned, he now thinks Lycos is “largely reseeded, including refreshed assets, capitalization and team, with a meaningful opportunity for future value creation in hand.”

He pointed to its asset base, which now comprising 140 net sections of land (45 net contiguous Mahikan block) with “exposure to substantial OOIP [original oil in place] and considerable development potential across 700 locations” and touted its “considerable opportunity set, with compounding potential for optimized development through high-graded execution and well design (multi-lats) throughout the Mannville Stack in the Waseca, General Petroleum and Lloyd.”

“Pro forma the transaction (and recent rally in share price), set against its prior rationalization of assets (including the prior material asset disposition & proceeds distribution), the company sits with a significant cost of capital with which to continue being proactive towards compounding and accretive asset consolidation,” added Mr. Payne. Expect the company to strategically expand within the fairway in support of value expansion and synergies to magnify its opportunity and value potential.”

The analyst maintained his “sector perform” rating for Lycos shares while hiking his target to $2.50 from 70 cents. The average is $1.20.

“Our estimates are conservative ahead of the resumption of its capital program and increased perspective therein, while our target multiple is increasingly moved to a premium to broader conventional oil peers as an acknowledgment of the dry powder on its balance sheet and expected proactive approach to accretive M&A that should continue to positively accrue value to shareholders,” Mr. Payne said. “Expect our target and rating to continue to march higher as a reflection of execution for both!”

“The company is reseeded with refreshed assets, capitalization and team, with a meaningful opportunity for future value creation through revived organic development (optimized execution) and continued proactivity of transactional expansion (with support of its premium cost of capital). LCX is poised for a 42-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 6 per cent), while trading at a 4.7 times 2027 estimated EV/DACF (vs. peers 4.9 times), on leverage of negative 0.1 times (vs. peers 1.0 times). Our target price is now predicated on a 2027e EV/DACF multiple of 6.0 times (previously 2.5 times a 50/50 weighting of 2026/2027), with the increased multiple attributable to the expanded asset base, revived organic growth from a static assumption, and optionality following the transaction.”

In other analyst actions:

* Calling it a “cheap compelling turnaround story,” Barclays’s Michael Lonegan initiated coverage of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN-N, AQN-T) with an “overweight” rating and US$7 price target, exceeding the US$6.82 average on the Street.

Mr. Lonegan also initiated coverage of Hydro One Ltd. (H-T) with an “overweight” rating and $66 target, seeing it as “a high-quality utility with a long runway of significant capex opportunity.” The average is $57.17.

* BMO’s Brian Quast initiated coverage of Americas Gold and Silver Corp. (USA-T) with an “outperform” rating and $10 target. The average is $13.71.

“With the addition of Paul Huet and his experienced management team, we believe that the company has the expertise to execute their optimization strategy, particularly at the Galena complex,” he said. “This strategy should increase free cash flow generation, allowing USA to re-rate as production grows organically.”

* In response to an updated resource estimate for its Koné project, ATB Cormark’s Nicolas Dion raised his Montage Gold Corp. (MAU-T) target to $18 from $16.50 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $15.80.

“Once built, MAU’s Koné mine will be among the largest and lowest-cost gold mines in West Africa. We model a 19-year mine life producing over more than 300,000 oz/ yr in the first 11 at a less than $1,400/oz AISC (mine-level). Montage has the stated goal of building a multi-asset West African producer, with Koné as the foundational asset and a growing portfolio of development/exploration projects and equity toeholds. We see the potential for Didievi to be constructed after the completion of Koné, adding a second development project to MAU’s pipeline where it could re-deploy its construction team. The company is backed strategically by the Lundin Family and Zijin,” said Mr. Dion.

* Following meetings with its management team, Raymond James’ Michael Glen increased his 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T) target to $38 from $35 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $32.75.

“The thematics, visibility and fundamentals underlying 5N+ continue to show meaningful improvement. This round of investor meetings saw conversations centered around Space, Defense, and 5N+ participation in the supply chain for critical metals (emphasis on Germanium). Exiting meetings, we are making positive revisions to our AZUR forecast given the continuation of strong underlying business trends, and note the levers available to both our FSLR and Performance Materials forecast,” he said.