It’s only been a week, but it feels so much longer in the world of high-leverage relievers. Since our last preseason post, Carlos Estévez suffered a contusion during his six-run implosion in Atlanta last Saturday and was placed on the 15-day injured list. Lucas Erceg has already secured two saves since, and he may be tough to displace in the ninth inning, even if Estevez’s velocity rebounds.

Confusion reigns supreme in the reliever landscape, and 37 different pitchers have already recorded at least one save through game action on April 1, and only 10 have notched two or more. Pittsburgh announced Dennis Santana will not be reserved solely for the ninth inning during his appearances. Ryne Stanek recorded a save on March 26 and has pitched in the seventh inning in his last two outings. Pat Murphy intimated he would share save chances, but used Abner Uribe at the top of the eighth against the top of the Rays’ lineup during an eventual win. This represents good news for those with Trevor Megill shares.

Stock reports and situations worth monitoring will be covered by their respective leagues below, as the volume warrants.

We define our high-leverage pathways by assigning each team one of the following labels:

Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it usually follows a predictable pattern in high-leverage situations.
Primary save share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, the player may also be used in matchup-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order, especially in the late innings, providing multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.
Shared saves: Typically, two relievers share save opportunities, often based on handedness, rest or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations typically involve a primary and ancillary option, others may be used. Some teams also prefer a matchup-based option, which creates fluid save opportunities.
Fluid: The manager has not named a closer, and usage patterns regarding the leverage roles remain unclear.
American League leverage pathways
TeamLeverage PathwayCloser (Primary)Stopper/HLRStealth/Ancillary Option

Mostly Linear

Ryan Helsley

Yennier Cano

Grant Wolfram

Mostly Linear

Aroldis Chapman

Garrett Whitlock

Justin Slaten

Primary Save Share

Seranthony Domínguez

Grant Taylor

Jordan Hicks

Mostly Linear

Cade Smith

Shawn Armstrong

Erik Sabrowski

Primary Save Share

Kenley Jansen

Will Vest

Kyle Finnegan

Primary Save Share

Bryan Abreu

Bryan King

Kai-Wei Teng

Primary Save Share

Lucas Erceg

Matt Strahm

John Schreiber

Primary Save Share

Jordan Romano

Drew Pomeranz

Chase Silseth

Primary Save Share

Cole Sands

Justin Topa

Taylor Rogers

Mostly Linear

David Bednar

Camilo Doval

Fernando Cruz

Mostly Linear

Andrés Muñoz

Matt Brash

Jose A. Ferrer

Fluid

Bryan Baker

Griffin Jax

Garrett Cleavinger

Shared Saves

Robert Garcia

Chris Martin

Jacob Latz

Fluid

Mark Leiter Jr.

Scott Barlow

Justin Sterner

Mostly Linear

Jeff Hoffman

Tyler Rogers

Louis Varland

Stock up

Lucas Erceg (KC): Benefiting from his teammate’s injury and poor performance, Erceg may usurp the defending MLB save leader’s role this season.

Jordan Romano (LAA): He’s converted both save chances while posting a 0.75 WHIP with a 16.2% swinging-strike rate over his first three outings, spanning 2.2 innings. How long this lasts and his role once Kirby Yates and Ben Joyce return are open to debate, but enjoy the ride for now.

Bryan Baker (TB): Playing Rays’ reliever roulette remains a risky venture, but Baker’s been scoreless in his first two outings with two strikeouts, a 21.7% swinging-strike rate, and a robust 73.9 strike percentage. His leverage role may grow as the month progresses.

Cole Sands (MIN): Most projection systems favored Taylor Rogers for saves in this bullpen, but Sands secured his team’s only save thus far and may be the preferred option for them moving forward. Keep tabs on Drew Smith, though. He signed a minor-league deal with eyes on a larger leverage role on a team bereft of talent for the late innings.

Erik Sabrowski (CLE): Those who play in leagues with SOLDS (saves plus holds) or holds as a category know about the “Big Sabrowski.” Entering game play on April 2, he leads the majors with four holds and has recorded six strikeouts versus two walks (30.8 K-BB percentage) through his first four games, spanning 3.2 innings.

On the watch list

Cade Smith (CLE): Small sample sizes can be misleading, as his four-seam fastball location has been at the onset of the season. He’s allowed at least a run in three consecutive outings, resulting in a 1.50 WHIP with three strikeouts versus one walk across four innings. His four-seam fastball has accounted for 12 of his 14 batted-ball events early on, with zero barrels, though it feels like more, given his 40% line-drive rate this season. Although his hard-hit percentage this year sits below last year’s, Smith has a .353 xBA, a .671 xSLG, and a .434 xwOBA with his fastball. He’s better than this, and his location with the pitch should improve.

Bryan Abreu (HOU): After a rough debut, his velocity rebounded during his save on April 1, reaching a maximum velocity of 97.3 mph. However, he also left a slider over the plate that Roman Anthony deposited over the wall in left field. He needs better command and trust in his heater for better outcomes while Josh Hader ramps up for a potential return.

David Bednar (NYY): The good news is that he leads the majors with three saves through April 1. But he has only produced a 6.3% swinging-strike rate while allowing more contact (88.1%). Thankfully, the quality of contact has been poor, but through three games, his 2.70 ERA accompanies a 4.51 SIERA and a 6.37 xERA. Stay tuned.

Griffin Jax (TB): If one Rays’ reliever is up, then another must be down; it’s the spinning wheel that keeps leverage coverage going around. Jax had an uncharacteristically high batting average on balls in play last year (.368), and it has risen during his limited sample this year (.400). His defense on Wednesday did him no favors; however, his WHIP spiked to 3.50, and he’s only recorded one strikeout versus two walks through four games, spanning two innings. Can he find the dominant form he flashed in 2024?

National League leverage pathways
TeamLeverage PathwayCloser (Primary)Stopper/HLRStealth/Ancillary Option

Primary Save Share

Paul Sewald

Jonathan Loáisiga

Taylor Clarke

Mostly Linear

Raisel Iglesias

Robert Suarez

Dylan Lee

Mostly Linear

Daniel Palencia

Hunter Harvey

Phil Maton

Mostly Linear

Emilio Pagán

Tony Santillan

Graham Ashcraft

Primary Save Share

Victor Vodnik

Jimmy Herget

Brennan Bernardino

Mostly Linear

Edwin Díaz

Tanner Scott

Alex Vesia

Mostly Linear

Pete Fairbanks

Calvin Faucher

Andrew Nardi

Primary Save Share

Trevor Megill

Abner Uribe

Ángel Zerpa

Mostly Linear

Devin Williams

Luke Weaver

Brooks Raley

Mostly Linear

Jhoan Duran

Brad Keller

José Alvarado

Shared Saves

Dennis Santana

Gregory Soto

Justin Lawrence

Shared Saves

Riley O’Brien

JoJo Romero

Ryne Stanek

Mostly Linear

Mason Miller

Jeremiah Estrada

Adrian Morejon

Mostly Linear

Ryan Walker

Keaton Winn

Erik Miller

Primary Save Share

Clayton Beeter

Cole Henry

PJ Poulin

Stock up

Pete Fairbanks (MIA): He’s retired nine of his first 10 batters faced for a minuscule 0.33 WHIP and racked up five strikeouts (50 K-BB percentage) against zero walks with a 16.7% swinging-strike rate.

Trevor Megill (MIL): His velocity dipped slightly during his first outing on consecutive days, but he has his team’s only save and has emerged as the preferred option for Milwaukee.

Keaton Winn (SF): There was a learning curve during his spring appearances, but through his first three games this season, he has six strikeouts versus one walk (50 K-BB percentage) with a 26.8% swinging-strike rate, a 52.2% contact rate allowed, and he’s posted a first strike percentage of 70. He’s worth a look in SOLDS leagues, and if his team’s closer struggles, saves may be in the offing. His teammate Caleb Kilian may be a solid SOLDS or holds candidate as well, but does not have the swing-and-miss stuff Winn possesses.

Gregory Soto (PIT): It has not happened yet, but he may be the beneficiary of save chances when a left-handed hitting pocket is projected for the ninth inning. This coincides with Don Kelly’s suggestion that there is no defined closer in his bullpen. There will be wild rides with the volatile veteran, but he’s recorded eight strikeouts through his first 4.1 innings against two walks (35.3 K-BB percentage).

On the watch list

Ryan Walker (SF): He converted his first save chance this season while giving up a two-run home run. This leaves fantasy managers wondering if the 2024 version or last year’s will show up this year:

Splits by situation and inning for Walker in 2024 and 2025
2025GIPK:BBK%BB%K-BB%ERAWHIPHBAAOPSBABIPBF

Save Situations

33

28

27:7

20.9

5.4

15.5

6.43

1.536

36

.308

.817

.375

129

Non-Save

35

33.1

33:11

24.1

8

16.1

2.16

1.050

24

.202

.583

.267

137

8th Inning

12

10.2

11:0

28.2

0

28.2

1.69

0.654

7

.189

.528

.240

39

9th Inning

40

33

29:12

19.1

7.9

11.2

4.91

1.485

37

.278

.741

.346

152

2024GIPK:BBK%BB%K-BB%ERAWHIPHBAAOPSBAbipBF

Save Situations

36

38

40:8

27.4

5.5

21.9

1.66

0.868

25

.187

.537

.242

146

Non-Save

39

41

57:10

36.3

6.4

29.9

2.20

0.829

24

.170

.492

.265

157

8th Inning

22

19.2

26:3

36.1

4.2

31.9

1.83

0.761

12

.179

.550

.256

72

9th Inning

22

21

29:3

38.7

4

34.7

0.86

0.571

9

.127

.356

.195

75

Clayton Beeter (WSH): He represented an upside option for the “never pay for saves” crowd, and he converted his first chance on March 29. However, in his next outing, he worked a combined scoreless inning between the eighth and the ninth in Washington, getting lifted for a left-handed reliever when Kyle Schwarber was announced. Beeter’s command can wane, and if he’s not the primary save share on a bad team, his fantasy impact is minimized.

Emilio Pagán (CIN): Last year did not go well for Ryan Helsley or Devin Williams, partly because of their struggles when hitters were ahead in the count. In 2025, Pagán owned a 65.5 strike percentage and threw first strikes 64.4% of the time. In this year’s limited sample, his strike percentage sits at 61.1% with a paltry 35.3% first-strike rate. When batters are ahead this year, Pagán has the following splits by pitch; understand it’s a small sample size:

Four-seam results with the batter ahead: .991 xSLG and .570 xwOBA
Split-fingered fastball results with the batter ahead: 1.682 xSLG and a .871 xwOBA

Edwin Díaz (LAD): Last year, he slightly threw more four-seam fastballs than sliders, and since 2022 he has used the slider more:

Splits by pitch in 2025 and since 2022 for Díaz
2025PitchesUsage%SwStr%Whiff%K%BB%K-BB%Strike%BAbipxBAxSLGxwOBABBEHH%

4-seam

561

52.6

16.6

39.4

35.1

9.9

25.2

62.1

.192

.181

.293

.283

55

46.3

Slider

505

47.3

19.8

44

40.1

6.8

33.3

64.6

.301

.157

.226

.212

75

34.7

Since 2022PitchesUsage%SwStr%Whiff%K%BB%K-BB%Strike%BAbipxBAxSLGxwOBABBEHH%

4-seam

1425

49

17.3

39

39.3

10.2

29.1

62.3

.311

.185

.296

.275

130

40.6

Slider

1481

50.9

25.3

46.9

44.4

6.9

37.5

68.3

.273

.146

.217

.201

206

33.5

Through his first three games with the Dodgers, his splits are 63.6% four-seam fastballs and 36.7% sliders, resulting in a 61.6 strike percentage with an 8.3% swinging-strike rate, and a 15.4 K-BB percentage. This will not affect his save totals, but could decrease his strikeouts if this usage trend continues.

Save stashes/adds
Bryan Baker (TB)
Gregory Soto (PIT)
Riley O’Brien (STL) if he was dropped in your league.
Tony Santillan (CIN)
Keaton Winn (SF)
Jacob Latz (TEX)
Ancillary save options
Mark Leiter Jr./Scott Barlow (ATH)
Jimmy Herget (COL)
Jonathan Loaisiga (ARI)
John Schreiber/Matt Strahm (KC)
Brad Lord (WSH)
Ratio Relievers

*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios.

Aaron Ashby (MIL)
Jakob Junis (TEX)
Tobias Myers (NYM)

It will be a long season covering closers. Strap on some bandages; it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

Statistical Credits: FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference.com, Baseball Savant, BrooksBaseball.net. Check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey for daily updates.