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It’s a full Saturday of MLB action today, but my MLB home run predictions sees value in two players from the same game, as the Nationals and Dodgers have both good matchups… and good hitting conditions.

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See why my MLB player props for April 4 are keying in on CJ Abrams and Teoscar Hernandez — and check back later for another HR pick and my HR parlay for today.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR

Odds

CJ Abrams

+560

Teoscar Hernandez

+450

CJ Abrams (+560)

CJ Abrams is off to a strong start this season, hitting .269 with an increase in his hard-hit rate. The Nationals‘ shortstop has gone deep in back-to-back contests and is seeing the ball well, with six hits in his last four games.

He’ll face flamethrower Tyler Glasnow today, but Abrams is hitting .429 against fastballs early in the season (after hitting .292 against the heater last year), and he has gone yard off Glasnow already in his career.

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We also get a boost from the weather, as the wind is expected to be blowing 10 mph straight out to center field.

Where to watch: NATS, SNLA

Teoscar Hernandez (+450)

I’m sticking with the same game but shifting over to the Dodgers, as Teoscar Hernandez has long been an elite power hitter, but has yet to hit a dinger in 2026.

His issue has been an absurd 69% ground-ball rate (and a 6.3% fly-ball rate that’s well below his 28.1% career average), but the veteran is still hitting .320 on the year and has a great get-right matchup in facing Jake Irvin.

The Nats righty surrendered an MLB-worst 38 home runs last year, and started his 2026 campaign by allowing two dingers to the Cubs — including a 58% hard-hit rate and 33.3% FB rate.

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Teo is also 4-for-13 off Irvin in his career, with a pair of long balls.

Where to watch: NATS, SNLA

Quinn Allen’s 2026 Transparency Record

HR picks: 3-9, +0.72 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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