August 10, 2025
From July 31 to August 7, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,686 Canadian adults on the state of federal politics. The polling occurred primarily after Canada and the United States failed to reach a new trade and security agreement before the self-imposed August 1 deadline, a moment that might have sparked public reaction, but instead revealed just how steady Canadian political attitudes remain.
Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, Canadians appear largely unmoved in their federal political preferences. Government approval has dipped slightly, but vote intentions are static, and the desire for change remains stuck in neutral.
Direction of the Country: No Panic, No Rally
Just 36% of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction, the same as in mid-July. Meanwhile, 46% think the country is off on the wrong track, a stable but still elevated level of pessimism. These results suggest Canadians are watching the stalled U.S. negotiations with concern, but not with alarm.
Views about the world remain bleak (14% right direction), as do impressions of the United States (14%), reflecting persistent unease about President Trump’s second term and America’s unpredictable posture on trade and global leadership.
Top Issues: Trump Ticks Up, Housing Drops Back
The rising cost of living remains the dominant issue, cited by 62% of Canadians, up modestly from 59% in the previous wave. Donald Trump and his administration remain the second-most-mentioned concern, rising slightly to 44% (from 43%), further evidence that American politics continue to deeply shape Canadian anxieties.
The broader economy is a close third at 37% (up 1), while housing affordability and accessibility has dropped slightly, from 35% to 31%. Healthcare also edged down to 31%, from 33% two weeks ago.
These shifts, while small, reinforce a political climate shaped by affordability fatigue and international turbulence. The Trump presidency has become a durable second-tier issue, not displacing domestic worries, but consistently competing with them.
Government Approval: A Small Dip, But Still Majority Support
Approval of the Carney-led federal government now stands at 50%, down two points since mid-July. Disapproval is unchanged at 27%. This marks the first time since March that approval has touched the 50% line, suggesting a mild cooling-off following a long stretch of goodwill.
While the overall balance remains positive, the drop likely reflects concerns about the lack of progress on key domestic files and a perceived absence of resolution in high-profile international negotiations.
Performance Measures: Strengths Abroad, Weaknesses at Home
Mark Carney continues to earn his strongest marks on files tied to diplomacy and governance:
Representing Canada internationally: 49% good/very good
Working with premiers: 46% good/very good
Handling Donald Trump: 41% good/very good
But when it comes to domestic economic issues, perceptions turn sharply:
Housing affordability: 41% poor/very poor vs. 29% good
Cost of living: 40% poor/very poor vs. 32% good
Handling taxpayer money: 37% poor/very poor vs. 33% good
Deficit and debt: 40% poor/very poor vs. 30% good.
While the public gives Carney credit for his tone, values, and international steadiness, many remain unconvinced that progress is being made where it matters a lot, in their household budgets.
Among Canadians who voted Liberal in 2025, approval levels are markedly higher across every file. Fully 80% say Carney has done a good or very good job representing Canada internationally, 71% say the same about his work with premiers and the values he brings to the job, and 68% approve of his handling of Donald Trump. Even on weaker areas like housing and cost of living, Liberal voters are more forgiving, with about half rating his performance positively, though these remain the lowest-scoring files even among his base. This suggests that while the Prime Minister enjoys deep goodwill among his supporters, expectations on domestic affordability remain a live test heading into the fall.
Leader Impressions: Carney Holds Ground, Poilievre Breaks Even
Mark Carney remains in positive territory, with 48% viewing him favourably and 29% unfavourably for a net score of +19. These numbers are down slightly from July but remain strong, particularly in Quebec (+41), BC (+20), and Ontario (+18), and among older voters.
Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, has reached a rare balance: 42% positive, 41% negative, for a net score of +1. This is his best net rating in months.
Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in Canada: 13% favourable, 75% unfavourable, a net of -62, virtually unchanged.
Desire for Change: A Story on Pause
Views about change in government remain unmoved. Four in ten (39%) of Canadians believe it’s time for a change and see a good alternative. Another 27% want change but don’t see a viable option. Meanwhile, 34% say the Liberals under Carney deserve re-election, steady from the last wave and the highest that figure has been in two years.
In short: no new movement, no new momentum.
Issue Ownership: A Divided Map
When asked which party is best equipped to handle the issues they care most about, Canadians continue to divide along familiar lines.
Cost of living: Conservatives 39%, Liberals 29%
Donald Trump and his administration: Liberals 58%, Conservatives 21%
Housing affordability: Conservatives 30%, Liberals 30%
The economy: Conservatives 43%, Liberals 40%
The Liberals, however, lead on:
Healthcare: Liberals 33%, Conservatives 27%
Climate change: Liberals 38%, Conservatives 14%
On immigration, the Conservative lead remains stark: 60% of those who prioritize it believe the CPC is best suited to handle the issue, compared to only 15% for the Liberals.
Accessible Voter Pools: Liberals Still Edging Out Conservatives
The accessible universe for the Liberal Party sits at 56%, virtually unchanged from last wave. The Conservatives remain close behind at 55%. Regionally, the Liberals maintain an edge in Ontario and Quebec, while the Conservative pool is wider in the West. The NDP lags significantly behind, at 34% nationwide.
Vote Intention: Still Deadlocked
If an election were held today, 43% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Liberals — no change since mid-July. The Conservatives also hold steady at 40%. The NDP stands at 8%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, with the Greens and PPC both between 1% and 2%.
Among those certain to vote, the Liberal advantage increases slightly to 44% vs. 40% for the Conservatives.
Regionally:
British Columbia: A tie: 39% each for the Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP at 16%
Ontario: Liberals lead 48% to 41%
Quebec: Liberals at 44%, Bloc at 25%, Conservatives at 23%
Atlantic Canada: Liberals ahead 50% to 42%
Alberta: Conservatives lead with 62%, Liberals at 27%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Conservatives at 52%, Liberals at 34%
Demographic Trends: Familiar Patterns Persist
The Liberal advantage remains strong among younger voters (47% among 18–29s), while the Conservatives lead with middle-aged Canadians (45% among 30–44s) and those over 50 (44% to 38%).
Women lean Liberal (45% to 38%), while men are split more evenly. Among university-educated voters, the Liberals lead by 19 points (52% to 33%), but the Conservatives are ahead among those with a college degree (46% to 36%).
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As the deadline for a new Canada–U.S. agreement came and went with no breakthrough, Canadians didn’t blink. Support for the governing Liberals remains strong, vote intentions haven’t moved, and the desire for change is static.
The Carney government retains a solid approval base and a reputation for international competence. But there are signs of drag: its domestic economic ratings are showing wear, and the Prime Minister’s halo on affordability issues may be beginning to dim.
For now, Canadians are separating frustration with outcomes from blame toward the government. But that separation may not last forever. As summer wears on, it’s the economy, not foreign affairs, that could add more complexity to the political climate heading into fall.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,686 Canadians from July 31 to August 7, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey via partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.