Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Food City 500 at Bristol.
Bristol is the loudest track on the schedule and the most punishing. Five hundred laps on a concrete bowl with steep banking, no room for error, and a tire compound that Goodyear specifically redesigned for this week. The same combination of more torque and less aero grip that turned Darlington and Martinsville into tire management races will be here Sunday. The race sets up the same way it has all season: be smooth, be patient, and be better than everyone else on a long run.
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Race Winner — Food City 500
He won this race a year ago, leading 411 laps in a tire wear environment that looked a lot like what Sunday is expected to produce. The year before that, he won the fall Night Race at Bristol, leading 462 laps. Two dominant wins at this track in his last three starts here, both built the same way — get to the front and make the concrete work for him as the field falls apart around him.
The 31-race winless streak is real, and the market has already accounted for it — he still opens as the favorite because the Bristol track record overrides a cold stretch. He finished ninth at Martinsville last week in a race where Hendrick generally struggled to find Hamlin’s level. Bristol is a different track with different demands, and when this package produces tire wear, the evidence says Larson knows exactly what to do with it. Defending winners at the Food City 500 are worth taking seriously.
Two wins at Bristol in the Gen 7 era — the 2023 fall Night Race and the 2024 spring Food City 500 — and four top-five finishes in six starts. He also has one win on the 2026 season from Las Vegas and has been among the most consistent drivers in the field across every tire-wear package race this year. His long-run speed at Martinsville last week was undeniable — he led 292 laps and dominated before Elliott beat him on strategy.
The case against him is that Bristol has occasionally produced ugly days even for its best performers — he finished 31st in the 2025 fall Night Race after leading almost nothing. At +550, there is not much cushion if something goes wrong. But the argument for him is clean: two Bristol wins, including the most recent Food City 500 in 2024, strong 2026 form, and a tire management skill set that suits this track and this package better than almost anyone else in the field.
Zero Bristol wins in the Gen 7 era — two second-place finishes and otherwise an uneven record at this track. So why is he here? Because he just won at Martinsville last week, and +1400 is a number that demands attention when the driver is this current.
The honest Bristol picture for Elliott is inconsistent. His best Gen 7 results here are two runner-up finishes, and he has never led more than five laps in any Gen 7 Bristol start. The bet is not on his Bristol track record — it is on momentum, on Hendrick finally finding something after a slow start to 2026, and on a market that opens him at a price that assumes he cannot win here. If the Martinsville setup carries over even partially to Bristol concrete, +1400 is the number that pays. That is a speculative play, not a data play, and it should be read that way.
Group D Winner: Chris Buescher (+200)
Buescher is the only driver in Group D with a Bristol win in the Gen 7 era — he won the 2022 fall Night Race, leading 169 laps. Nobody else in the group has been to victory lane here in this era. Chastain, Wallace, and Preece have each had scattered top-ten finishes, but nothing that suggests they outrun Buescher at this specific track on a consistent basis.
At +200 to simply finish ahead of three drivers without his Bristol credentials, the math is reasonable. His recent Bristol form has been uneven — 25th in the 2025 spring race was ugly — but his 2025 fall race showed he can still run in the top twelve here when the car is right. The RFK organization ran all three cars strongly at Darlington. If that carries to Bristol concrete, Buescher is the best bet in this group.