Early in the NFL season, it’s easy to make assumptions about teams based on their performances the prior season.
For example, the Rams offense looked completely dominant to close the 2025 season. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense continues to post brilliant underlying metrics.
However, using last year’s performances – commonly referred to as “priors” – paints an incomplete picture early in the next season.
In my early NFL futures research, I’ve discovered evidence that could inform early perceptions about teams next year.
Below, bettors can find my early discoveries along with presumptions for the 32 teams based on NFL odds.
NFL Betting Presumptions for All 32 Teams
Arizona Cardinals: The Defense is Not as Bad as Perceived
Late last year, Arizona couldn’t stop teams to save their lives. I shouldn’t have to tell anyone that allowing 40 in Houston comes with strings attached.
Injuries consistently left Arizona shorthanded against a supremely difficult schedule. Only Detroit lost more adjusted games on defense than Arizona (78.1).
Of that total, 51.7 came at corner and safety. Without opponent adjustments, Arizona ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA for the season, per FTN Fantasy.
But Arizona also played the hardest defensive schedule in the entire league (+6.5%). For reference, Minnesota came in second at +2.9% average rating.
Atlanta Falcons: Good Rushing Offenses Can Dominate the Defense
Outside Jessie Bates at safety, Atlanta lacks much talent on defense. The front seven also appears set to lose James Pearce Jr., leaving very few options.
Atlanta already struggled against the run last year, ranking 23rd in rush defense DVOA. Most concerning is that the schedule next year looks very daunting from a run defense standpoint.
Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh all ranked 10th or better in rush offense DVOA last year. Green Bay and Washington ranked sixth or better in 2024.
Those games – along with potential high-risk meetings against San Francisco and Kansas City – lead me to believe the run defense could further regress.
Baltimore Ravens: Pass Offense Starts Well Early
In a season where Lamar Jackson missed early action, a noticeable dropoff occurred in Baltimore’s passing offense.
Baltimore fell from first in pass offense DVOA two years ago to 16th last year. Their overall percentage – after opponent adjustments – went from 72.1% to 16.4%.
Unsurprisingly, Baltimore regressed from 7.7 adjusted games lost to 15.6 AGL on offense. Jackson’s 4.2 AGL proved the most critical.
My guess is the true quality falls somewhere in the middle. In Weeks 1-3, the Ravens posted a +0.354 dropback EPA last year. For the entirety of 2024: +0.387.
Carolina Panthers: Defense Takes a Massive Step Back
From a points-per-game standpoint, Carolina looked average last year. The defense ranked 15th in points per game compared to 23rd in defensive DVOA.
I’m more concerned about what happens when they face good offenses next year. In the regular season, the Rams turned the ball over three times and still scored 28 points.
New England and Buffalo both reached 40, while even the Cardinals reached 27.
Next year, Carolina projects to face the 10th-hardest defensive schedule in the league by a two-year blended average of offensive DVOA rankings.
Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Seattle all have the potential to score at will. Expect better results from Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Minnesota, too.
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams Sees Increase in Turnovers
Ben Johnson’s team excelled at avoiding turnovers on offense while forcing a league-high 33 turnovers.
It does not mean Williams played perfectly. During the regular season, he threw seven interceptions vs. 19 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
Over the last two seasons, Williams tossed 13 interceptions compared to 38 turnover-worthy plays.
If Chicago continues to play close games next year, I’ll carry interest in Williams’ turnover props.
Cincinnati Bengals: Team Totals Remain Viable with Burrow Healthy
After Burrow returned from injury, Cincinnati’s offense radically improved.
The unit ranked fifth in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Most of that output came through the air – fifth in dropback EPA per play, sixth in dropback success rate.
Of course, it coincided with some easy opponents: Miami, Arizona and Buffalo all lacked defensive quality.
But next year, the schedule – on paper – looks pretty easy. Outside games against Cleveland, Houston and maybe Indianapolis, expect the Bengals offense to run rampant.
Cleveland Browns: Is Cleveland a Home Dog? Eye Game Unders
Dating back to 2003, the Browns are 61-38-2 (60%) to the under as a home underdog. That includes 13-5-1 since the 2021 NFL season.
I don’t buy the Browns offense suddenly finds footing at quarterback. Either way, the offensive line offers strong pessimism after loads of roster turnover.
Defensively, I worry about Jim Schwartz’s departure. However, I trust the personnel quality against teams like Cincinnati, Baltimore, Indianapolis and Houston in Cleveland.
Dallas Cowboys: Defense Presents Wild Variance Based on Matchup
Dallas reminds me a lot of the ‘25 Bengals defensively. The unit was bad against bad teams – 32nd in DVOA vs. the third-easiest schedule – albeit as a fairly unhealthy defense.
Ownership signed a bunch of guys during the offseason. The front seven also features a strong interior duo: Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark.
But the Cowboys project to face the league’s fifth-hardest defensive schedule by ‘25 offensive DVOA ratings.
Will Dallas look good against teams like Houston, Tennessee and Philadelphia? Arguably yes. But say a prayer for their defense against the Rams, Packers, Colts, 49ers and Commanders.
Detroit Lions: Defense Posts Good Metrics due to Opponents
I’m not going to come out and say the Lions defense is good. The team dealt with consistent injuries over the last two years, which likely leaves an impact.
But don’t be surprised if you look up one day to find the Lions are leading the NFL in points allowed per game.
Next year, Detroit projects to face the league’s 26th-hardest schedule by ‘25 offensive DVOA rankings. It’s the 28th-hardest when you combine the last two years of data.
That occurs after Detroit played the ninth-hardest opponent set last year as the most-hurt defense in the league.
Denver Broncos: Broncos Regress as Market Underdog
Two years ago, Denver finished 4-5 ATS as a market pup. All of a sudden, the team improved to 4-1 ATS as a dog last year (5-1 if you include the playoffs).
The problem? A 4-0 run to end the regular season as dogs coincided with some unlikely victories. The team erased eight- and 14-point deficits against Houston and Philly.
As home dogs to Green Bay and Kansas City, Denver used turnover variance to win close games.
Next year, I’ll be looking to sell the team in these spots, especially against top-tier offenses. Think games against the Rams, 49ers, Bills and Chiefs, depending on price.
Green Bay Packers: Defense Regresses Against Harder Schedule
The schedule presents some problems for Jonathan Gannon’s defense. Cumulatively, the Packers project to jump from the 23rd-hardest schedule to the 11th-hardest schedule.
Most of that strength is contained within the division. The schedule also could play harder if Minnesota puts out an organized unit under Kyler Murray.
But the schedule also features a trip to face the Rams and Patriots, along with home games against Buffalo and Dallas.
Add in the lack of a “pressure without blitzing” capability, and I expect the defense to struggle next year.
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud’s Turnover Rate Catches Up with Him
Like Caleb Williams, Stroud ran extremely lucky avoiding negative plays.
Through three seasons, the Ohio State alum tossed 25 interceptions vs. 46 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. Last year, he threw eight interceptions vs. 13 turnover-worthy plays.
The results skew further if you include the playoffs:
Last 3 Years: 31 INTs vs. 62 TWPs
2025: 13 INTs vs. 23 TWPs
I have no faith in the offensive line and run game next year, even with David Montgomery. If Stroud takes on a larger workload, I expect some regression for Houston’s QB.
Indianapolis Colts: Rushing Attack Maintains Pace from ‘25
So long as Jonathan Taylor stays healthy, the Colts rushing attack should continue to thrive.
Losing Will Fries and Ryan Kelly before last year minimally impacted the offensive line. Indy ranked seventh in run-block win rate as the unit finished fifth in rush offense DVOA.
Perhaps most impressively, Indy dominated on the ground against a top-tier Seahawks run defense. Featuring an immobile Phillip Rivers, the Colts rushed for 102 yards.
The metrics fell off a cliff following the bye week as Jones sustained his injury. However, I remain bullish on this ground game behind one of the league’s top lines.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Defense is Most Fraudulent Unit in NFL
I’m not buying Jacksonville’s defensive record from 2025 at all.
The team ranked sixth in defensive DVOA, up from 31st in 2024. Turnovers drove that improvement as the Jaguars ranked second in takeaways.
In Weeks 5-12, the Jaguars forced only five turnovers. During that stretch, the defense ranked 29th in EPA per play and 26th in success rate (excluding the five turnovers).
Jacksonville also faced a very easy quarterback schedule. Anthony Campanile’s defense faced 58% of snaps against QBs ranked 30th or worse in EPA, the second-highest rate in the league.
Kansas City Chiefs: Offense Reaches 2022 Levels with Mahomes
Do you know the last time Kansas City ranked fifth or better in offensive DVOA? All the way back in 2022!
Maybe it’s a coincidence, but that year marked the last time Eric Bienemy coordinated the offense. He returns in 2026 to an offense that added shiny new toy Kenneth Walker III.
Not since ‘22 have the Chiefs ranked 10th or better in both pass and rush offense DVOA. With Walker, I expect Kansas City to achieve that feat.
Looming over all of this is Patrick Mahomes’ health. Even if he misses time, Mahomes likely leads one of the league’s best offenses upon his return.
Los Angeles Chargers: Defense Regresses After Losing Minter
Over the last two years, LA has achieved outstanding defensive results. However, the level of competition should not go ignored.
In ‘24, the defense ranked ninth in DVOA against the 27th-hardest set of offenses. Twenty-one turnovers ranked 13th. Last year: 10th in DVOA vs. 29th-hardest schedule with 23 takeaways.
Next year, the Chargers project to take a massive step forward in the defensive schedule. Based on ‘25 DVOA ratings, LA projects to face the league’s 12th-hardest schedule.
Sample ratings from both ‘24 and ‘25 and it becomes the eighth-hardest schedule. Save for games against the Cardinals, Jets and Dolphins, I worry about the defense.
Los Angeles Rams: Big Over/Unders Warrant Under Consideration
So much went right for the Rams offense next year. As I outlined in my Rams Over Under Wins evaluation, I’m not sure the offense is as good as we’re led to believe.
Meanwhile, the Rams produced some of my favorite offseason moves. Defensively, the team went out and aggressively addressed their weakness: corner.
Trent McDuffie arrives from Kansas City via trade. Jaylen Watson also arrives from the Chiefs via free agency.
It should lead to an improved offense against the league’s hardest defensive schedule. Over the last two years, LA’s opponents averaged a +3.5% offensive DVOA rating.
Las Vegas Raiders: Rushing Attack Rapidly Improves
Klint Kubiak plus Ashton Jeanty behind an improved line. What could possibly go wrong?!
Near the end of 2025, Kubiak coordinated a strong Seahawks run game. From Week 1-7, Seattle ranked 26th in rushing EPA per play. After a Week 8 bye, the team improved to 11th.
In Vegas, Kubiak gets a superior back behind an improved offensive line. Tyler Linderbaum, Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson form the basis of a strong line.
Look for Jeanty to see a jump in production as he faces fewer defenders in the backfield.
Miami Dolphins: Every Opponent CAN Score 30+ Points
I worry a lot about Miami’s defense. From a personnel standpoint, the defense appears to be one of the worst in the entire league.
Trading Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick further complicates the issue. If that weren’t enough, Miami’s defensive schedule looks brutal for one of the league’s cheapest defenses.
By ‘25 offensive DVOA ratings, Miami projects to face the league’s eighth-hardest schedule. Sample the last two years of data, and it becomes the fourth-hardest schedule.
Late last year, the defense allowed 28 to Pittsburgh and 45 to Cincinnati. Expect a lot of performances like those two against this set of offenses.
Minnesota Vikings: Decent Passing Attacks Dominate the Defense
Last year, the Vikings endured a stretch where the defense struggled mightily. As noted in my Vikings Over Under Wins analysis, Minnesota posted some concerning metrics.
Next season, the defense projects to face a brutal schedule. Of their 17 games, 10 come against top-10 pass offenses from 2025.
Over a two-year sample, Minnesota projects to face the league’s second-hardest defensive schedule.
If the Vikings trade Jonathan Grenard, it leaves a blitz-heavy pass rush with question marks in the secondary.
New England Patriots: Drake Maye Sees Turnover Regression
Maye saw a ton of fortune-avoiding turnovers last year, mostly in the postseason. Across all 21 games, he tossed 12 interceptions vs. 26 turnover-worthy plays.
Just in the regular season: eight interceptions against 17 turnover-worthy plays.
It’s unsurprising when you consider the Patriots led the NFL in offensive plays from leading positions (578). That should change as the Patriots play a harder defensive schedule.
Next year, New England projects to face a schedule four times as tough as last year (-8.3% DVOA average compared to -2.1%).
If the Patriots spend more time from behind, Maye likely sees a jump in turnovers.
New Orleans Saints: Defense Looks More Like Second Half of 2025
Brandon Staley’s defense looked immensely better as the schedule softened last year. Here are their EPA per play and success rate splits from last year:
Weeks 1-9 (1-8 record): 22nd, 20th
Weeks 10-18 (5-3 record): 1st, 1st
During the latter sample, New Orleans played a really easy schedule. Staley’s unit faced Carolina twice, Atlanta twice plus Miami, Tampa Bay, the Jets and Titans.
Next year, the defense projects to face another easy schedule. Based on ‘25 DVOA ratings, the Saints’ 2026 opponents average a -4.1% rating. Only two teams face easier schedules.
New York Giants: Defense Regresses vs. Difficult Schedule
The Giants’ 2026 opponents offer an interesting case study. Simultaneously, the team plays extremely difficult and extremely easy games.
Away from home, the Giants face five of eight against top-10 offenses from last year. It jumps to seven if you trust the Eagles and Commanders improve year over year.
The home schedule offers a slight reprieve. However, it still features games against Jacksonville and San Francisco. New Orleans could prove a surprise as well.
Good spots exist for the team, but I maintain an overall distrust of the Giants defense.
New York Jets: Viable ATS Within the AFC East Meetings
The Jets’ 0-6 divisional record looks terrible upon first glance. But once you realize Brady Cook started three of those games – all by 24 or more – it becomes slightly more forgivable.
Early perceptions about the Jets are bad, unsurprisingly. But I maintain the belief this offense can move the ball against some pretty weak defenses in the division.
The offensive line ranked 14th in run-block win rate last year. Breece Hall produced an increase in both yards per attempt and yards per game compared to ‘24.
It would not surprise me to see New York finish 2-0 against Miami.
Depending on where the games against Buffalo and New England appear on the schedule, I’ll eye the Jets to cover the spread in those games.
Philadelphia Eagles: Game Total Unders Earn Continued Consideration
I don’t trust the Eagles offense, more so if the team trades A.J. Brown.
Explosives defined this unit in 2025. Across the entire league, only four teams generated fewer red-zone opportunities than the Eagles.
But the defense also allowed only 49 red-zone chances, good for T-8th. So long as Vic Fangio coordinates the defense, I trust a unit featuring star power at each level.
Over the last two years, Eagles regular season games are 20-14 to the under. That includes a 2025 season where the defense faced the fourth-hardest defensive schedule.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Avoid Turnovers? You’ll Dominate the Defense
Last year, the Steelers faced their easiest set of offenses over the last three years. Despite that, the Steelers posted some of their worst defensive metrics.
On plays excluding turnovers, Pittsburgh ranked 27th in EPA per play. Only five defenses posted higher variance rates.
The schedule next year looks encouraging. By ‘25 offensive ratings, only five teams face easier schedules.
I’m willing to entertain the possibility the unit looks better, especially after adding Jamel Dean. But the Steelers – at best – should be viewed skeptically next year.
Seattle Seahawks: Defense is Not as Good as Advertised
Don’t perceive this as “Seattle’s defense is bad.” It’s good. It’s more about the high-variance performances last year while facing some bad quarterbacks.
Seattle piqued later in the season, finishing first in both DVOA and weighted DVOA. By weighted DVOA, Seattle posted a -28.5% percentage on defense. For the year: -24.2%.
But look at the quarterbacks they faced down the stretch.
Seattle (9-1 in the last 10 regular season games) faced Mariota, Brissett, Stafford twice, Ward, Brosmer, Cousins, Rivers, Young and Purdy.
Don’t be surprised if the unit takes a step back next year against the hardest schedule by ‘25 offensive DVOA ratings.
San Francisco 49ers: Offense is Not as Good as Advertised
Similar logic here to the Seattle analysis. It’s likely the 49ers will continue to be a good offense without looking as strong as last year.
San Francisco’s offensive DVOA for the year was 17.6%. The unit’s weighted DVOA – increased emphasis on later games – came in at 20.6%.
But the later opponents deployed mostly bad defenses. San Francisco cleared 30 in three of the final four games, but it came against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Chicago.
From a scheduling standpoint, the unit faced easier games AFTER Brock Purdy returned from injury. If the schedule toughens, I expect the Niners offense to struggle compared to last year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Defense Likely Struggles in Non-Division Games
Can this defense play well against the Falcons, Panthers and Saints? Almost certainly.
But losing Jamel Dean and Lavonte David leaves the unit vulnerable against a pretty brutal schedule.
The remaining 11 games come against the AFC North and NFC North plus the Cowboys, Rams and Chargers.
Losing Dean is the biggest departure. Without him, Tampa Bay allowed Bryce Young to produce an above-average EPA per play rate compared to his season-long average.
Tennessee Titans: Offense is Not as Bad as You’d Think
I liken this presumption to the opposite of Arizona.
Cam Ward, in his rookie season, faced the hardest set of opposing defenses. In 17 games, he played 11 against a top-15 defense by DVOA.
Not only that, but the Titans offense faced the hardest defensive schedule of any team since 2018.
Once the schedule softened late in the year, Tennessee performed better. From Week 14 onward: -0.005 EPA per play compared to -0.090 in Weeks 1-13.
Washington Commanders: Defense Struggles, Irrespective of Opponent
I’ll be shocked if the Commanders defense plays average football next year.
The Commanders project to face the league’s sixth-hardest schedule by ‘25 offensive ratings. Most of the difficulty is contained in games against the NFC West.
Still, the Bengals, Colts, Falcons, Vikings and Jaguars all could deploy strong offenses. Plus, one look at this corner and safety group leads me to believe any team can exploit the unit.
Unless the unit becomes a takeaway machine, I liken this defense to the Dolphins unit.