Just 18 holes stand between Tommy Fleetwood and his first career PGA Tour victory. The story entering Saturday’s third round at the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship was whether Fleetwood could finally handle the nerves of leading a tournament on the weekend, and while Moving Day was not particularly smooth for the Englishman, he remains atop the leaderboard after 54 holes in Memphis, Tennessee. 

Fleetwood’s weekend opened with a rocky start as he made a double bogey 7 on the par-5 3rd hole, immediately shrinking his lead from four shots to one over Justin Rose. His countryman eventually take a two-shot lead over Fleetwood as Rose was red-hot early, and it immediately felt as if history would be repeating itself. However, Fleetwood settled in from there, bouncing back to close out his front nine in strong fashion and claw his way back into the lead.

Finishing his third round with a 69, Fleetwood sits 14 under for the tournament, one stroke ahead of Rose and two in front of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. It is Fleetwood’s third career 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour, one he aims to turn into a victory unlike his prior opportunities, but ever the optimist, he’s excited for the opportunity. 

“I would way rather be there and fail than not be there at all,” Fleetwood said of his lead entering Sunday. “So, either way, it’s a good thing. And yeah, it hurts when it doesn’t happen for you … and people talk about it more and more. That goes on, which it’s not my favorite time walking off the 18th at that point.

“I practice so hard at my game, and I work so hard and enjoy being out here for days like this. And all the times you’re 40th place going into Sunday, 30th, 20th, you might have a great day and feel good, but it’s just not the same as being in contention. I just look forward to the opportunities, giving myself a chance and chasing my dreams. Whether they happen or not tomorrow or the week after, that’s another story. But I’m looking forward to it nonetheless.”

Fleetwood’s lead should be larger. He walked to the 18th tee with a three-shot lead over Rose only to make bogey from the right rough as Rose managed a spectacular birdie to narrow the gap substantially entering Sunday’s final round. With multiple dropped shots to end otherwise strong rounds this week, Fleetwood will undoubtedly look back on those miscues and attempt to push them out of his head if he’s in a similar situation Sunday.

While Fleetwood certainly would have preferred a larger cushion, Rose’s birdie on the last might have helped the 34-year-old out a touch as he’ll once again be paired with his fellow Englishman on Sunday rather than having to stare down Scheffler during the closing stretch of a big-money tournament. 

Scheffler, who was six back of Fleetwood entering Moving Day, tied the low round of Saturday with a 65 to surge into third place at 12 under, trimming two-thirds of his deficit in the process. He rolled in a birdie on the last to finish the day with an exclamation point, standing in stark contrast to Fleetwood once again limping into the clubhouse. 

Frustrated all week with the Bermuda rough at TPC Southwind, Scheffler has regularly griped about bad lies and the way the ball settles down. Even as he’s run a little hot in Memphis, he’s plotted his way along to another week in contention. Scheffler is once again avoiding mistakes — six birdies compared to one bogey in the third round — and even when he’s dropped a shot this tournament, he quickly bounces back to erase the miscue.

Scheffler will be able to apply serious pressure to the final pairing from the penultimate group, as Fleetwood and Rose be well aware of his presence given the massive crowds around Scheffler will send roars rolling back to the last duo in the field. J.J. Spaun joins Scheffler meaning winners of three 2025 majors will be breathing down the necks of Fleetwood and Rose down the stretch.

The leader

1. Tommy Fleetwood (-14): Fleetwood is unquestionably the most accomplished player on the PGA Tour that has not won a tournament. His 42 top 10 finishes are the most of any player without a win on the PGA Tour since 1983, and with Cameron Young winning last week, his six runner-up finishes without a win are the most of any player on Tour currently. He’s an immensely talented player, but the scar tissue is real. This was apparent at the Travelers Championship as he took a one-shot lead to the 18th hole but lost with a bogey as Keegan Bradley made birdie next to him. Coupled with his struggles on No. 18 this week at TPC Southwind, Fleetwood will have a mountain of doubt to overcome if he arrives on that tee with a one-shot lead Sunday. This year has seen plenty of obstacles overcome already; after all, Rory McIlroy finally conquered his demons at Augusta National this year to win the Masters and career grand slam, so a Fleetwood win — staring down Scheffler in the process — might be a fitting way for the 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs to begin. 

Contenders

2. Justin Rose (-13)
3. Scottie Scheffler (-12)
T4. J.J. Spaun, Andrew Novak (-11)
T6. Ben Griffin, Rickie Fowler, Chris Kirk, Akshay Bhatia (-9)

Rose will hope he’s not transformed into a good luck charm for those trying to accomplish career-defining feats. He lost to McIlroy in the playoff at the Masters and will be trying to prevent Fleetwood from capturing his first win this week. Rose is hoping to create a different story Sunday as would become be the oldest winner on the PGA Tour this season (45) capturing his 12th career win and first since 2023.

Scheffler of course, stands as the most dangerous man on any leaderboard, any week. He’s going to make Fleetwood earn that first victory. Scheffler has improved one shot in each round, going 67-66-65 to get into third place alone, and he looks extremely comfortable on the new greens at TPC Southwind. Scheffler is third in strokes gained putting, as he continues his transformation into being not just a good but elite putter, which makes him the most terrifying threat the game has seen since prime Tiger Woods. 

Spaun will have to deal with the Scheffler crowds, but he’s played a few times with Scottie since his U.S. Open triumph and certainly won’t be intimidated by the moment. Novak, meanwhile, gets to play with his buddy Ben Griffin in a comfortable pairing that will fly under the radar. That could bode well for the two men that won the Zurich Classic together earlier this year. 

FedEx Cup top 50 bubble watch

The secondary storyline Sunday will be the battle for the top 50 spots in the FedEx Cup standings. That’s where players need to be to make it to next week’s BMW Championship, and it sets up the 2026 schedule by guaranteeing those 50 players spots in all eight signature event fields. 

Heading into Sunday, there are five players projected to move into the top 50 that started the week outside the number. 

Bud Cauley (53rd to 43rd) is T10 at -7Kurt Kitayama (52nd to 47th) is T16 at -6Chris Kirk (61st to 48th) is T6 at -9Rickie Fowler (64th to 49th) is T6 at -9Jhonattan Vegas (56th to 50th) is T16 at -6

Those players need to hold onto or improve their positions to lock themselves into the second round of the playoffs. They also need the five players who have dropped out of the top 50 not to make big runs up the leaderboards themselves. 

Aldrich Potgieter (43rd to 52nd) is T67 at +6Wyndham Clark (49th to 53rd) is T30 at -3Jordan Spieth (48th to 54th) is T41 at -1Jake Knapp (47th to 56th) is T59 at +2Min Woo Lee (50th to 57th) is 69th at +10

Lee’s chances are done as he’s well back in last place, but the rest could theoretically claw their way back in with low rounds on Sunday. J.T. Poston is 51st after starting the week 51st, sitting at 4 under for the tournament (T26) and could also shake things up with a low round. They could use help from that group above them falling out of the top 10, but the projections shifting and changing with every birdie and bogey on Sunday will be fascinating to watch. 

2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship updated odds, picks

Odds via BetMGM

Tommy Fleetwood (3/2)Scottie Scheffler (17/10)Justin Rose (9/2)J.J. Spaun (14-1)Andrew Novak (18-1)

It’s mildly surprising that Scheffler is not the favorite, but the oddsmakers are showing Fleetwood some respect as he tries to close out this win. It’s hard not to believe Scheffler is going to win this with another 65, but Novak is a live dog at 18-1 because that pairing with Griffin is going to be quite comfortable, and they both will be playing free golf. They’re pretty much locked into not only next week but the Tour Championship as well, and they could help push each other to a notably low round. It’s not super likely, but at 18-1, that’s about the last long-value play available that has real potential on this leaderboard.Â