When the 2025 season began, few could have predicted that Liam Lawson would be replaced by Yuki Tsunoda after just two races. Red Bull’s almost instant decision to throw Tsunoda into the deep-end was an admission that Lawson was promoted too early.

However, the circumstances that surrounded Tsunoda’s Red Bull ascension were essentially a worst-case scenario.

Without pre-season or any real preparation, the 25-year-old has been forced to adapt to a notoriously difficult car.

Red Bull are conscious of the awkward position they put Tsunoda in, which is why they have no intention of replacing him before the year ends.

Looking ahead to 2026, however, things are less clear.

Yuki Tsunoda in Budapest, Hungary. (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images) // Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool
Tsunoda safe until the end of 2025, Red Bull to re-evaluate after season ends

A combination of factors have impacted Tsunoda’s performance at Red Bull.

His first few Grand Prix in the RB21 were relatively encouraging, scoring points in his second race with P9 in Bahrain. Considering that Verstappen only managed 6th in Bahrain, this was an impressive outing for Tsunoda – in context of his virtually non-existent preparation.

It should also be noted that Red Bull’s simulator does not effectively replicate the RB21’s behaviour.

Because of this, anyone joining Red Bull – particularly mid-season – faces an uphill challenge in adapting to the car.

Tsunoda reached Q3 in Jeddah after his first points in Bahrain. Although an unfortunate first lap incident meant he left Jeddah empty-handed, his pace was solid enough.

Finishing 6th in the Miami Sprint and 10th on Sunday, while far from spectacular, created a generally positive perception of his start to life at Red Bull.

Unfortunately for Tsunoda, his crash in qualifying at Imola had massive ramifications. After his crash, the Japanese driver went several races without the same specification as Verstappen.

It was only before qualifying in Belgium, where Tsunoda qualified 7th, that his #22 car received Red Bull’s newest floor.

During this spell without the upgraded RB21, the 25-year-old has struggled.

Even teammate Verstappen is increasingly fighting a losing battle, with the reigning Champion only managing 9th in Hungary – in a race where midfield teams like Aston Martin were legitimately faster.

All things considered, Tsunoda joined Red Bull at a very poor time with no preparation. As mentioned previously, Red Bull – especially under the leadership of Laurent Mekies – are conscious of this.

There is no prospect of the Milton Keynes outfit making another knee-jerk swap before the end of 2025.

At the same time, there are still big decisions to be made for next year.

Why Red Bull are chasing stability

In an ideal world, Red Bull’s preference would be for Tsunoda to start securing better results and establish itself.

Yet another driver swap before 2026 would just add to the instability and uncertainty that has been so detrimental over the last eighteen months.

Yuki Tsunoda prepares to drive during final practice. (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images) // Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool

There is little reason to believe either of VCARB’s drivers, Lawson or Hadjar, would be better equipped to drive alongside Verstappen.

Isack Hadjar has even shut down suggestions he is ready to drive for Red Bull. It is virtually unheard of for a driver to shy away from a promotion to the main team- evidencing why replacing Tsunoda is not Red Bull’s first choice.

Laurent Mekies, having been VCARB team principal before Tsunoda left, and rates him very highly.

Helmut Marko was always more positive about the 25-year-old’s potential than Christian Horner was. This is another positive for the Red Bull driver’s 2026 prospects.

At the same time, this is not to say that Tsunoda can relax.

Assuming Red Bull recover from their Hungary disaster (and he runs with the same parts as Verstappen), the #22 car must be closer to Verstappen.

Q3 appearances must again become the norm, and points finishes should be standard practice.

Should he fail to achieve this, his position at Milton Keynes – and F1 – will be under genuine threat.

With no obvious alternatives in the market, Red Bull are working intensely to reverse Tsunoda’s fortunes.

The team have recognised their own culpability in producing with such problematic characteristics.

Only time will tell if the Austrian team is successful in getting their second driver firing.

Main photo: Mark Thompson/Getty Images (via Red Bull content pool)