Formula 1 drivers and teams now have a lot more information to base contract decisions on than even a few months ago.

The competitive order under the new regulations is much less of a ‘black box’ now, with many of the burning pre-2026 questions answered – questions like whether Mercedes would again nail an engine regulations change (yes), whether Red Bull-Ford will struggle as a nascent power unit manufacturer (no) and whether Aston Martin-Honda would finally emerge as a true contender (oof).

But how will this influence the driver market? The Race F1 Podcast’s panel of Edd Straw, Jon Noble and Scott Mitchell-Malm gathered in a special episode to outline and debate the scenarios doing the rounds in the paddock – and try their hand at mocking up a 2027 grid.

Red Bull

Red Bull is expected to be the biggest newsmaker when it comes to the possibility of changes at the front of the field.

Its talisman driver, four-time F1 champion Max Verstappen, is known to be seriously contemplating a break from F1, disillusioned with the current technical regulations.

Verstappen has a clause in his Red Bull contract that would enable him to go free at the end of the season, though a scenario in which he renegotiates with Red Bull to remain a representative of the brand while taking time away from racing feels a lot more logical.

“He’s the lynchpin,” says Jon of Verstappen’s role in the driver market. “I was speaking to someone in the paddock in Shanghai, they reckoned that the explosion point would be what Max Verstappen does. That everything would be calm until Max makes a decision.

“I think I will commit to Max not being in F1 next year.”

There is “a real chance” of that, Scott concurs, though Edd “would err” on the side of Verstappen remaining on the grid in 2027.

Given his relatively assured start to the season, Isack Hadjar is strong favourite to keep his seat regardless of what happens with Verstappen – so the biggest intrigue is, if Verstappen does step aside, how Red Bull would navigate the situation?

This would depend on whether it believes Verstappen would come back. If not, it would surely try for a big-name replacement – but if Red Bull can count on Verstappen for 2028 and beyond, an in-house option like Arvid Lindblad to hold the fort in the meantime feels like the path of least resistance.

Projected line-up: Isack Hadjar – Arvid Lindblad

Mercedes

Like the year before, Toto Wolff’s long-standing interest in Verstappen is the only real x-factor that could sway Mercedes from the path of straightforward continuity.

But Verstappen’s genuine brand loyalty to Red Bull, and the nature of his current grievances having more to do with F1 regs than Red Bull’s disappointing 2027 chassis, are two big marks against such a scenario.

“I still think that if Verstappen steps away, it’s with a kind of Red Bull return in mind,” Scott reckons. And Jon concurs, admitting he “can’t see a scenario where Max ends up at Mercedes next year”.

A 2027 with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli in the cars thus seems almost certain – though complications could still arise depending on how peacefully a 2026 title fight they currently look like monopolising plays out.

Projected line-up: George Russell – Kimi Antonelli

Ferrari

Predicting a Lewis Hamilton-for-Ollie Bearman swap at Ferrari in 2027 was the simplest thing at the end of last year, given the misery of Hamilton’s late-season, but the seven-time champion looks “reset” and more competitive in these early days of the new regulations.

And while Scott is among those “not convinced” that Charles Leclerc will be a Ferrari ‘lifer’, he sees no alternative destinations that would be a clear upgrade or even a sideways move as early as 2027.

Projected line-up: Charles Leclerc – Lewis Hamilton

McLaren

The intra-McLaren title fight of 2025 wasn’t always the smoothest (though also never anywhere near as messy as it could’ve been), and rumours do surface monthly that Oscar Piastri and his camp aren’t necessarily the happiest with their standing – though Piastri himself has never done anything to give this public credence.

If Red Bull has to plan long-term for a post-Verstappen project, then Piastri “can be a great Red Bull target” says Scott, recalling that he had already been on the organisation’s radar in the past, albeit under different leadership.

But in any case, 2027 might just be too early. Jon is among those who “can’t see any change happening at McLaren” next year.

Projected line-up: Lando Norris – Oscar Piastri

Aston Martin

Aston Martin could’ve found itself at the centre of a real silly season frenzy if it had had a start to 2026 befitting of a Honda works partner taking an Adrian Newey-designed chassis into battle.

But this, very famously, has not happened.

“If Aston Martin had started super strong, I think the chances of Fernando [Alonso] holding on to his seat would be slim – because I think there would be a charge from a lot of others to get into that seat,” reckons Jon.

As it stands though, given the size of its current deficit, Aston Martin just isn’t “a super attractive option”, and so the only real intrigue is whether Alonso (and team-mate Lance Stroll) will feel the motivation to continue into 2027. And right now there are no definitive signs to the contrary.

Projected line-up: Fernando Alonso – Lance Stroll

Alpine

Pierre Gasly is under contract for 2027 and has been delivering at a level corresponding to that of lead driver status – so there’s little to interrogate here.

But Franco Colapinto’s situation “has to be” a real question mark, with qualifying the biggest issue. Alpine feeling compelled to issue a statement debunking claims of “sabotage” recently is another less-than-promising side.

Colapinto has time – but maybe not as much time as he would in other places, with team chief Flavio Briatore having already shown he remains “absolutely brutal” in dealing with drivers.

Alpine has in-house alternative options in Paul Aron and Alex Dunne, but is likely to be enticed by more F1-proven options.

“I think one of those Williams drivers is prime for potentially moving on,” says Jon of Alpine 2027 candidates, and there’s a feeling Alex Albon is a likelier fit than Carlos Sainz.

Projected line-up: Pierre Gasly – Alex Albon

Williams

Both Williams drivers have been clearly unsettled by how difficult a start Williams has had to the new regulations.

Assuming one of the two drivers does end up going elsewhere, Jon sees reserve Luke Browning – currently in Japanese Super Formula and already possessing the requisite superlicence points and a bit of F1 practice experience – as a “logical step”.

But 2027 might be too early for Browning, and Scott believes that there’ll be interest – helped by team boss James Vowles being a familiar face to him from his Mercedes days – in Esteban Ocon.

Line-up: Carlos Sainz – Esteban Ocon

Haas

Edd believes there is “some kind of contract mechanism” that would ensure Bearman’s Haas stay into 2027, assuming a Ferrari call-up isn’t triggered. And this should suit the driver and the team well enough.

“Haas love him, Ferrari want to keep him close to them,” says Jon of Bearman, while Scott reckons: “If Ayao Komatsu has his way, Bearman’s never leaving that team.”

But Ocon is a question mark after a shaky 2026, and Scott believes he’ll be moving on – and that while reserve driver Jack Doohan will be considered, there is a likelier option on the market.

“I’m going to stick my neck out and say [Ocon will be replaced by] Yuki Tsunoda. 

“Komatsu was very interested in Tsunoda 12 months ago – it couldn’t continue because Red Bull and Helmut Marko closed that door to keep maximum flexibility [for themselves].”

Tsunoda is a long-time Honda protege, but would make a lot of sense from a marketing/synergetic perspective for Haas’s title partner Toyota to push for, given he is a much more viable F1 option than the Japanese drivers it had been arranging F1 tests for with Haas.

Projected line-up: Ollie Bearman – Yuki Tsunoda

Racing Bulls

As always, the second Red Bull team’s line-up is inexorably linked with the first team.

But assuming there is a vacancy, you’d have to favour drivers already on the books at Red Bull, just in terms of past precedent – even if we don’t yet know how substantially the current management’s vision for the Bulls line-up differs from the Christian Horner/Helmut Marko days.

If Lindblad moves up, logic dictates Liam Lawson would stay put and be joined by a rookie if that rookie showed signs of F1-worthiness. Red Bull protege Nikola Tsolov is currently doing just that in Formula 2, though it’s far too early to take any conclusions from that campaign.

Projected line-up: Liam Lawson – Nikola Tsolov

Audi

Despite even more leadership upheaval (the departure of Jonathan Wheatley), Audi must be a more attractive option than 12 months ago – given it’s delivered a genuinely impressive chassis and an unspectacular-but-adequate first-try engine.

But it might just be too early for Audi to target a real driver market splash. Scott posits a “fresh move” for Sainz – who it had courted before – could be worthwhile, especially as Nico Hulkenberg will turn 39 later this season, but ultimately continuing with Hulkenberg is “unproblematic”.

And Gabriel Bortoleto has lived up to the billing to the other car.

While Audi does have a genuine star prospect on the books in Freddie Slater, he is still a way away from F1 readiness.

Projected line-up: Nico Hulkenberg – Gabriel Bortoleto

Cadillac

Both Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas joined the project on multi-year deals, and it is way too early in Cadillac’s F1 lifespan for it to aggressively try to maximise driver value on the market.

There will be pressure to make the Colton Herta move happen sooner than later if the past IndyCar frontrunner does the job in Formula 2 – but for now Bottas/Perez fits the bill.

Projected line-up:Valtteri Bottas – Sergio Perez