Formula One set to post strong first-quarter growth amid sponsorship momentum and calendar shifts Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock
Formula One (NASDAQ:FWONA) is expected to report robust financial results for the first quarter of 2026, supported by continued strength in sponsorship sales, favourable race timing, and early benefits from the sport’s new Concorde Agreement, according to analysts at UBS.
The analysts forecast first quarter revenue of approximately $590 million, alongside operating income (OIBDA) of $147 million. These figures would represent year-on-year increases of roughly 46% and 74%, respectively, aided in part by an additional race compared with the same period last year.
Sponsorship remains a key driver of growth. After a 32% increase in sponsorship revenue in 2025, UBS expects momentum to continue into 2026, supported by newly signed partners and the full-year contribution of agreements struck last year. Even accounting for some disruption linked to Middle East events, sponsorship revenue is projected to grow by about 8% in 2026, with a potential acceleration to 11% in 2027.
However, geopolitical developments are expected to have some localized impact. Changes to the race calendar, particularly affecting events such as the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and the Bahrain Grand Prix, could weigh on race promotion revenues, as well as associated income streams like title sponsorships and premium hospitality offerings such as the Paddock Club.
UBS noted that most of Formula One’s broader revenue base, including media rights and long-term sponsorship contracts, remains relatively insulated due to minimum guarantees and contractual structures.
Looking ahead, UBS projected full-year Formula One revenues of $4.04 billion in 2026 and $4.48 billion in 2027, implying growth of 4% and 11%, respectively. Primary revenue streams, which include race promotion, media rights, and sponsorship, are expected to grow at a slightly more moderate pace.
OIBDA is forecast to reach $1.03 billion in 2026 and $1.16 billion in 2027, with margin improvements partly driven by adjustments to team payment structures under the new Concorde Agreement.
Race promotion revenues are also expected to benefit from renewed hosting agreements, continued interest from new venues, and the potential expansion of Sprint race formats beginning in 2027. UBS estimated an annual growth rate of around 8% for race promotion income between 2025 and 2027.
In the United States, early indicators for the Las Vegas Grand Prix suggest stable demand. Initial pricing for priority access and deposits appears broadly in line with last year, despite some uncertainty linked to consumer spending.
Beyond Formula One, UBS also updated its outlook for MotoGP, where monetization efforts are still in an earlier stage. The bank expects moderate revenue and earnings growth through 2027, with more meaningful commercial improvements likely to emerge over a longer time horizon.
UBS maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on Formula One’s parent company, citing a balanced outlook that includes steady revenue growth but more modest operating leverage beyond 2027, as well as reduced visibility due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. They have a $104 price target, implying upside from current levels of about $85.