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Home sales in British Columbia were down again in March, as analysts say a lack of confidence among both buyers and sellers will likely mean the downturn in the market will continue into the summer.
The B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) says 5,766 homes in the province were sold after being listed on the Multiple Listing Service system last month — a 3.6 per cent drop from March 2025.
According to the BCREA, the number of home unit sales for B.C. last month was significantly lower than normal, coming in 34.5 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of March.
It continues a trend of lowered home sale activity in the province that has stretched for more than a year. Analysts say the ongoing war in the Middle East and spiking inflation as a result will likely mean the situation continues.
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Mark Ting, a partner with Foundation Wealth and On The Coast’s personal finance columnist, said that mortgage rates are based on bond markets — and bond yields are tending to rise due to spiking energy prices brought on by the war in the Middle East.
“Pre-war, we were expecting a summer recovery because mortgage rates had actually been falling and we were expecting … with more certainty, that perhaps we start to see some confidence building in the market,” said Brendon Ogmundson, the BCREA’s chief economist.
“A little bit difficult to see that occurring right now, especially if this conflict continues and inflation is still rising.”
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Ogmundson said the longer the market remains unsettled due to the war and its impacts, the more likely inflation continues to rise and the Bank of Canada considers hiking interest rates.
“This was already a housing market that was really challenged by, like, a lack of confidence from just the accumulated kind of uncertainty and everything else for the past couple years,” he said.
“But also now it’s dealing with a potential, like, rise in mortgage rates.”
Oleg Galyuk, a real estate agent with Royal Pacific Realty, said that those looking to sell their homes are feeling a lack of confidence about whether any buyers are out there for their homes, and wonder whether they should list now or wait.
He said that in March 2025 the housing market was feeling the disruption from U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs — and now, the war in the Middle East led to widespread disruption in March 2026.
“It seems like, as soon as we sort of got used to the idea of the tariffs and the dust settled, we got introduced [to] this whole new aspect of uncertainty with the Iran war, with the rising energy costs and perhaps rising interest rates,” he said.
Galyuk said that layoffs in the development sector and new construction projects stalling remain possibilities as the market continues to see slow activity.