Derek CartyApr 16, 2026, 08:21 AM ET

CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.

Multiple Authors

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Thursday’s top batter prop bets

Corey Seager | OVER 0.5 HR (+472)
Projection: 25% chance of this bet hitting, with a $40.88 EV

Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+537)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $39.89 EV

Julio Rodriguez | OVER 0.5 RBI (+205)
Projection: 40% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.49 EV

Jackson Merrill | OVER 0.5 RBI (+193)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.94 EV

Nick Kurtz | OVER 1.5 TB (+153)
Projection: 45% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.62 EV

Thursday’s top pitcher prop bets

Walker Buehler | OVER 2.5 ER (+110)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.43 EV

Walker Buehler | UNDER 3.5 K (+106)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.22 EV

Jacob Lopez | OVER 2.5 ER (+112)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.44 EV

Foster Griffin | OVER 4.5 K (+103)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.27 EV

Ryan Weiss | OVER 3.5 K (-129)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.35 EV

Patrick Corbin | OVER 4.5 K (+128)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.40 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

PITCHER

MONEY
LINE

PROJ.
WIN%

VALUE %

RUN
LINE

OV

VALUE %

GAME
TOTAL

O/U

xRUNS

VALUE %

Foster Griffin

+139

39.3

-7.10

+1.0

-109

-8.39

9.0

O +100

8.57

-21.14

Braxton Ashcraft

-168

60.8

-2.48

-1.0

-119

-3.90

U -121

10.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Landen Roupp

+109

48.4

1.64

+1.0

-145

0.03

8.0

O -115

8.42

-9.70

Chase Burns

-131

51.6

-9.42

-1.0

+112

-13.50

U -105

0.94

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kris Bubic

-112

58.3

11.45

-1.0

+112

11.64

8.0

O -112

9.13

2.84

Keider Montero

-108

41.7

-20.81

+1.0

-146

-20.24

U -108

-12.04

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Walbert Urena

+224

20.9

-36.79

+2.0

-121

-34.74

9.5

O -108

9.12

-26.51

Max Fried

-280

79.1

9.24

-2.0

-108

23.78

U -112

17.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick Corbin

+104

46.6

-4.55

+1.0

-146

-3.67

8.5

O -108

8.41

-15.45

Brandon Sproat

-126

53.4

-4.56

-1.0

+112

-9.20

U -112

6.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Steven Matz

-131

52.6

-6.65

-1.0

-106

-10.02

8.0

O -119

9.06

-0.97

Anthony Kay

+109

47.4

-1.64

+1.0

-122

-2.28

U -101

-8.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jack Leiter

-120

57.2

5.00

-1.0

+104

5.59

8.5

O -122

10.51

11.24

Jacob Lopez

+100

42.8

-14.54

+1.0

-135

-16.03

U +101

-21.87

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shane Baz

+104

39.8

-19.26

+1.0

-149

-18.45

8.0

O -108

8.39

-7.17

Parker Messick

-126

60.2

8.37

-1.0

+114

9.57

U -112

-1.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomoyuki Sugano

+159

37.1

-5.80

+1.5

-131

-7.85

8.5

O -120

9.61

-1.15

Ryan Weiss

-194

62.9

-3.57

-1.5

+109

-0.22

U +100

-7.84

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Luis Castillo

-122

60.7

11.35

-1.0

+105

14.14

8.0

O -112

9.99

16.52

Walker Buehler

+102

39.3

-21.60

+1.0

-136

-23.09

U -108

-25.97

Top Betting Trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.

San Diego Padres Run Line:
The Padres have won this bet in seven straight games. (+8.30 Units / 98% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -137

Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
Toronto has gone under this bet in five consecutive road contests. (+5.20 Units / 75% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +120

Cincinnati Reds 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Reds have hit the under for this bet in 12 of their last 15 home games. (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +120

Chicago White Sox Team Total UNDER:
Chicago has failed to reach their team total in eight of their last 10 games. (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -105

Athletics 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
The A’s have lost this bet in eight of their last 10 overall games. (+5.60 Units / 48% ROI). Current odds: -0.5 @ +114