Pearce Dietrich shares his top bets and predictions for the NASCAR Cup Series AdventHealth 400 at Kansas on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Las Vegas and Kansas are separated by 1,400 miles and almost nothing else. Both are 1.5-mile ovals that reward smooth, disciplined driving — the kind that preserves right-side rubber over long green-flag runs. The names at the top of the Kansas odds board look familiar because they were at the top of the Las Vegas board, too.

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Best Bets for the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas

Denny Hamlin | Race Winner +500

Kansas is Hamlin’s track. Four Cup wins at the 1.5-mile oval, including the Spring 2023 AdventHealth 400 in one of the most lap-change-heavy finishes in Kansas history. He’s logged 17 top-10 finishes in 35 starts at Kansas — that’s a top-10 rate no active driver can match on this surface. The 2026 season has made one thing clear: Hamlin goes to the front and stays there. He led 292 laps and swept both stages at Martinsville before Elliott’s strategy call stole the trophy. He won Las Vegas this year. He’s been the best car on multiple occasions and has fewer wins to show for it than his pace deserves. Kansas is a horsepower-and-aero track — smooth, wide, progressive banking. That’s exactly where the No. 11 JGR Toyota typically shines. Does +500 feel short? A little. But dominant cars win dominant tracks. Bet the chalk here.

Kyle Larson | Race Winner +600

Larson owns Kansas. He won the spring race in 2025 by leading 221 of 267 laps — his third Kansas victory and his 32nd career Cup win. Before that, he edged Chris Buescher by 0.001 seconds in 2024 in the closest finish in Cup Series history. Two straight spring wins at this track. Three Kansas wins total. Hendrick Motorsports leads all organizations at Kansas in wins, top fives, top tens, and laps led, and Larson has two of those nine all-time HMS victories. His 2026 has been frustrating — his winless streak sits at 32 races dating back to Kansas 2025 — but the speed hasn’t gone anywhere. He led 284 laps at Bristol last week and came home third when strategy shuffled him out of the win. A motivated driver, a track he’s dominated, and a +600 number? That’s where specialist value lives. Back the two-time defending Kansas spring winner.

Chase Elliott | Race Winner +1400

The number looks wrong. Elliott’s career average finish of 10.1 at Kansas is the best among all active Cup drivers. He won the Fall 2025 Kansas playoff race in dramatic fashion — passing both Hamlin and Wallace on the final lap in the closing corner to take the checkered flag. That’s two Kansas wins now. He won Martinsville in March. He’s fourth in points, 109 laps led through eight races, and averaging a 10.6 finish in 2026. Bristol was a quiet race until a late spin buried him to 22nd — that result flatters the number and hides what’s been a quietly excellent car all season. Elliott has two wins on intermediates in the last calendar year. The No. 9 team executes pit strategy as well as anyone in the garage. At 14-to-1, you’re getting a Kansas-proven winner who just beat Hamlin three weeks ago. The value is real. Play it.

GROUP A PICK | Kyle Larson +270

In a pick-one-of-four format, Larson at +270 is the number. Hamlin at +200 and Bell at +220 are both legitimate — but Larson has won this exact race two years running. He’s the best car at Kansas in track history. Bristol showed the speed is still there. The group is essentially pricing Hamlin as the favorite and Larson as an afterthought. Two consecutive AdventHealth 400 wins say otherwise. Take the extra 70 cents on the two-time defending winner.